A major weather pattern change is occurring just in time for the 2018 Cloudsplitter race, with a radically different air mass expected to be in place over the High Knob Massif versus last weekend.
Model Forecast Sounding At 8:00 AM Saturday – October 13, 2018
Unlike during the Hellbender Race, when even the summit of Mount Whitney would have failed to reach the freezing level, this weekend the freezing level will be low enough to intersect the summit of High Knob, especially on Saturday as the race begins.
High-Resolution Model Time-Height Cross Section During Friday-Saturday ( Oct 12-13)
Dry air will be abundant aloft, but low-level moisture is expected to increase and deepen vertically again in the Friday Night to mid-morning Saturday period as a reinforcing boundary passes and winds shift more strongly to the NW for a period of time.
Although most of this weekend will remain dry with respect to falling precipitation, surface conditions will be wet from recent rain. A chance for some light showers during the predawn to post-sunrise period Saturday and again on Sunday, as warmer air begins to push back over the region, will keep conditions somewhat unsettled and changeable.
*Weather conditions are always changeable with the large variations in elevation and terrain across the High Knob Massif area. These synoptic-scale ( or large-scale ) weather changes will add to this variability through the weekend.
Chilly air and low wind chills, versus recent mild conditions, will be a factor that runners will need to be prepared for, especially along ridges at the upper elevations ( 3000 to 4200 feet levels ).
Forecast Details…Temps in Degrees Fahrenheit
Friday Morning Update
A low cloud deck held through the night with dense fog and low clouds continuing to engulf highest elevations this AM.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
It is a wintry morning up top with 34 degrees and wind chills in the 20s, amid dense fog-low clouds. This is what conditions will be like into Saturday morning, only even more nasty for the 8:00 AM start of the Cloudsplitter 100.
Wintry Morning On Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif – Friday ( October 12, 2018 )
By the time first runners reach the summit level conditions could have a chance to improve, but I would not bet on much since I expect cloud bases to be slow to break Saturday.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Flurries or sleet pellets possible at highest elevations. Light rime formation becoming possible on trees and vegetation in high gaps and on the peaks of Eagle Knob, High Knob, and Little Mountain Knob and Camp Rock Knob into Saturday AM.
Winds WNW-NW 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures dropping to around 30 degrees on the highest peaks, with widespread 30s above 3000 feet elevation. Wind chills dropping into the 20s above 3000 feet, with a period featuring upper 10s to lower 20s on highest peaks.
Saturday Morning Through The Afternoon
Low clouds giving way to partly cloudy skies. Chilly. Light northerly winds. Temperatures varying from upper 30s to lower 40s above 3300 feet, with mid-upper 40s to low 50s degrees at lower sections of the race course ( middle 50s at lowest elevations near Hanging Rock Recreation Area and the Devil Fork Loop ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Becoming gusty along mountain ridges at middle to upper elevations above 2700 feet. Winds S-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures mainly in the 40s. Wind chills in the 30s to lower 40s. Calmer conditions, with less wind, is expected in hollows and deep gorges.
While the temperature trend will feature near steady to slowly rising readings on exposed mountain ridges, the possibility for temp drops into the 30s, especially during Saturday evening before clouds thicken, will need to be respected within mountain hollows and valleys more sheltered from wind and mixing.
Sunday Morning Through The Afternoon
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. S-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts ( especially on mountain ridges ). Temperatures in the 40s at upper elevations, above 3300 feet, with low-mid 50s at lower elevations of the course.
