Mostly clear. Light winds ( mostly less than 10 mph on mid-upper elevation ridges ). Large vertical temperature spread between cold mountain valleys and milder, exposed ridges & plateaus. Temperatures varying from 20s to lower 30s in the colder valleys to the mid 40s to low 50s on exposed ridges and plateaus. Areas of river valley-lake fog.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly sunny ( some high clouds ) and mild. Light winds. Temperatures varying from middle-upper 60s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 70s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear ( some high clouds ). Winds SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Large vertical temp spread between the colder valleys and exposed ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from 30s in mountain valleys to the low-mid 50s on exposed ridges & plateaus ( around or below freezing in the coldest valleys at upper elevations ). Areas of river valley fog near lakes and mainstem rivers.
Saturday Afternoon
Partly sunny ( high clouds ). Mild. SSE winds mostly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly cloudy ( high clouds ). Winds SSE-SSW at 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & exposed plateaus. Temperatures varying from 30s to lower 40s in colder valleys, decoupled from any wind, to the 50s across exposed ridges-plateaus.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly sunny ( high clouds ). Winds SSE at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 60s in the upper elevations to the low-mid 70s.
Soaking rain followed by a blast of cold air is expected by the early to middle portions of next week. The first flakes of snow will also be possible at highest elevations. Locations which have not yet dropped to freezing or below, will likely do so next week.
Weather Discussion ( Nice Pattern )
A nice weather pattern, dominated by High pressure, will rule the mountain landscape through this weekend before major changes occur next week.
Rugged Stone-Pickem Mountain of High Knob Massif – October 18, 2017
Hold out Northern Red Oaks ( variation borealis ) in parts of the upper elevations will be changing to join a more muted array of color ( with more brownish tones ) where trees are not already bare. Meanwhile, lower elevations will have a chance to reach some sort of “peak” in a rather disjointed color season across the eastern USA.
Black Mountain Mesonet Observations – Ending At 12:15 AM Friday ( October 20 )
Although mountain ridges remain relatively mild, the bottom has been dropping out of the temperature in high valleys of the High Knob high country during recent nights with very dry air and light winds.
*Some middle elevation thermal belt sites, such as Nora 4 SSE on the Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge, have only dropped to 39 degrees during October to contrast with middle 20s in high valleys and a minimum of 31.6 degrees in Clintwood ( in the low elevations ).
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
A major pattern change across North America has been well forecast by the European ensembles to occur next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 6-10
This will include a wetter and colder transition as high latitude blocking develops near Greenland ( recurvature of a western Pacific typhoon will be beginning this process ).
Typhoon Lan In The Western Pacific at 0620z – October 20, 2017
