My Forecast For Today ( March 11 )

Overnight Into This Morning

Cloudy and gusty.  Warm.  A chance for rain showers or sprinkles.  SW-WSW winds 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, across middle to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures widespread in the 50s and 60s ( coolest in the most sheltered mountain valleys and along highest ridges ).

Mid-Morning Through Friday Afternoon

A chance of rain showers or sprinkles into early PM.  Mild.  Winds shifting N-NE and decreasing to generally less than 10 mph ( becoming variable into late PM ).  Temperatures in the 50s to middle 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A chance for showers developing into morning.  Winds SSE-SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, by the overnight-morning along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures widespread in the 50s.

Weather Discussion ( March 10-11 )

The main change in my forecast, from the one made last night for tonight, is to reduce precipitation to a chance for rain showers or sprinkles as the mountain area is caught in a general subsidence zone ( with sinking air aloft ) north of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the Deep South.

So far, as of 2:00 AM, there has been just enough rain to dampen the ground in places.  These rain showers and sprinkles, mostly light, will continue into this morning.

Abundant clouds and gusty winds are keeping the air well mixed with only the most sheltered valleys dropping into the 50s to match the highest mountain ridges.  The rest of the mountain area is basking in 60s ( like a summer night ).

The other main change on this update being to delay the passage of a weak cold frontal boundary until after sunrise, which will keep unseasonably warm conditions all night.  Temperatures on your TGIF will be cooler than in past days, but still mild for this time of year ( coolest conditions today being along and north of the High Knob Massif, and at highest elevations, in far SW VA ).

The abundance of clouds is helping hold heat from the past day, with a general subsidence or sinking air regime aiding this over the Mountain Empire which is north of drenching rain-thunderstorms over the Dixie States.

The 73 degree record in Wise, established back on March 10 in 2009, will be in jeopardy once the official data comes in as air temperatures were right at that point on Thursday.

The NWS Cooperative Site at Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge was right at 73 degrees during Thursday ( elevation of 2650 feet above sea level ).  Temperatures at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise are not official, with the official site for Wise being the NWS Cooperative located approximately 3 miles east of the Courthouse.

Thursday temperatures across the area in general varied from mid 60s atop the High Knob Massif, at highest sites, to upper 70s ( 78 degrees in Clintwood ).  Readings at or above 80 degrees occurred within lowlands to the south, toward the Tri-Cities ( 82 degrees officially at TRI ).

The NAM Model group continues to show much more rain this weekend than the European Model, which is holding off on the most significant rainfall until early-middle parts of next week, and even later in time into the extended.  A first test for this upgrade to see how it may handle this setting.

So far its been dead on target with excessive rain over the lower Mississippi Valley, with amounts reaching and even locally exceeding the 16.00″ or so it was predicting from 2-days ago.  All models tend to struggle with total amounts when convection is involved ( which may be key to local amounts through this weekend…will it become unstable enough for any convection? Convection could cause locally heavy amounts.  If not, then amounts may come in on the low end, like the latest ECMWF is showing in general ).

Reference my 031116 Extended Outlook for a look ahead at a pattern which will trend back to colder conditions during the second half of March 2016.

Have a great TGIF.