My Forecast For Today ( March 23 )

ALERT For Strong ( ROARING ) SW Winds On Middle-Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges-Plateaus Overnight Into Wednesday Morning ( And Also In Portions Of The Lower Elevations Of The Russell Fork Basin Northeast of The High Knob Massif-Black Mountain )

An increasing pressure gradient has developed strong SW winds along the Cumberland Mountains tonight.  Mixing of ROARING SW winds into lower elevations northeast of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide is also occurring ( in locations from Pound to Clintwood ).  Wind gusts of 30 to 50+ mph will be possible, with sustained speeds around 30 mph or higher along high ridges.

Conditions will remain windy today into Wednesday Night-early Thursday, but speeds should be a little lower than present.  Stay tuned for updates.

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Moon shine through high clouds.  Windy.  Large vertical temperature spread between mid-upper elevations and any lower elevation valleys that remain sheltered from strong winds.  SSW-SW winds 15-30 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SW-WSW 20-35 mph, with 40-50+ mph gusts, along ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s & 50s ( mid-upper 50s in milder places ), except 30s in valleys that remain decoupled-sheltered from winds.

This Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Unseasonably warm.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to the lower-middle 70s in downslope locations of the Russell Fork & Levisa Fork basins ( 60s Norton-Wise-Sandy Ridge ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Mostly clear early with increasing clouds toward morning.  Windy.  SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to low-mid 50s, except cooler in any low elevation valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.

 

Weather Discussion ( March 22-23 )

Another hard freeze started Tuesday in mountain valleys with temperatures as cold as the upper 10s to lower 20s in colder valleys across Wise and Dickenson counties.

Note that flowers-vegetation below show absolutely no signs of any freeze damage despite the prolonged sub-freezing conditions since they have become climatized to such spring conditions.  The Christmas Fern being one species that remain green through much of the winter season ( turning brown or brownish along edges on some plants by mid-late in the cold season ).

 A few new early spring species continue to bloom.

I found the first Golden Ragwort in bloom, which will become widespread ( especially above sandstone dominated stratas ) as spring progresses.  These plants ( below ) are very fibrous.

While winds were gusty Tuesday, they have become ROARING tonight across much of Wise and Dickenson counties with 30-50+ mph gusts.

*At 2:01 AM Wednesday the report from Lonesome Pine Airport was SW winds ( 240 degrees ) at 29 mph with gusts to 38 mph.  When sustained winds reach around 30 mph that is strong.

Sustained winds were at 30 mph at 1:50 AM ( below ).  Except along high ridges across the High Knob Massif, sustained speeds should not go much above 30 mph.  Wind gusts of 45-50+ mph have been occurring on High Knob since around 9:00 PM ( 6+ hours so far ), and have recently occurred at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise.

Although winds are ROARING across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus in Wise & Dickenson counties, as well as northern Scott County and the border area along the VA-KY stateline, they have also been mixing downward into the favored zone northeast of the High Knob Massif & Black Mountain into the Pound-Clintwood corridor.

This has generated a huge temperature difference in valleys across Dickenson County, with 57 degrees in Clintwood and strong winds ( with downslope warming ) verses 37 degrees in the Birchleaf-Sandlick to Haysi area at the very same time ( 1:00 AM Wednesday ) where winds are calm.

3:00 AM Update:  The temperature here in Clintwood holds at 57.0 degrees with ROARING winds while it has dropped to 36.6 degrees at Sandlick ES.  The difference being my station is within a wave breaking zone on SW flow where strong winds mix downward to the northeast of the High Knob Massif – Black Mountain.

Winds remain gusty through today and tonight; although, be somewhat less strong than present.  Combined with low relative humidity this will enhance the danger of fires and extreme caution should be used ( NO BURNING should be done across the region until rain falls ).

Showers & thunderstorms will become likely by mid to late Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night.

The high resolution NAM ( below ) is trying to show that rainfall will be varied and associated with bands of showers-storms by later Thursday into Friday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has the Virginia-Kentucky border area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

A limiting factor initially is the very dry, low dewpoint air currently in place that will need to moisten up to support thunderstorms and just rain.  Remember that March 2016 currently is on an all-time record dry pace.

***The tendency for near to below average spring precipitation has been observed during past +ENSO ( El Nino events ); however, a potentially more important trend that will bear watching is that the 3 driest years on record locally have occurred in years that have transitioned from El Nino into La Nina ( e.g., 1987-88, 1998-99, 2007 ).  I will have more about this later.

Stay tuned for updates.

Have a great Wednesday.