Showers & thunderstorms will become likely by late afternoon into early evening. Some thunderstorms could be strong to locally severe, especially in places along & west of the High Knob Landform-Tennessee Valley Divide. The main severe threat will be strong winds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any watches or warnings which may be needed.
S-SW winds will increase this afternoon into this evening, along and ahead of a cold front, with 30 to 40+ mph gusts becoming likely ( especially at mid-upper elevations ).
*SW winds are again strong tonight at highest elevations, with gusts between 40 and 50 mph reported atop the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain. These strong winds will mix downward into middle-lower elevations today into this evening.
Overnight Into This Morning
Mostly clear early with some increasing high clouds toward morning. Windy. SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 40+ mph, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 40s to low-mid 50s, except cooler in lower elevation valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds ( 30s in the colder valleys ). Wind chills in the 30s, in gusts, along highest ridges.
This Afternoon Into Early Evening
Increasing clouds and winds. A chance of showers, then showers & thunderstorm becoming likely by late PM into the early evening. Some storms may be strong or locally severe. S-SSW winds increasing to 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, upper elevation mountain ridges.
Tonight Into Good Friday
Rain & thunderstorms tapering to showers overnight into morning. Strong and gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning. Turning cooler overnight. Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to low 50s ( coolest at highest elevations by morning ).
A much cooler air mass will be felt Friday as temperatures hold in the 30s above 3200 feet, with 40s to lower 50s across lower-middle elevations ( 40s in Norton-Wise ). The good news, winds will be relatively light to reduce the effect of wind chills.
Winds last night continued to ROAR up to around sunrise at highest elevations, with a decrease following by mid-day before occasional gustiness ruled the afternoon.
Black Mountain MesoNET – Elevation 4031 feet
The trend at middle elevations featured a decrease before sunrise, with a redevelopment of gustiness during the day.
Flatwoods Mountain MesoNET – Elevation 2774 feet
Gusty winds made it difficult, along with a 45 degree slope, to take the first Bloodroot in bloom that I have seen so far.
First Bloodroot ( Sanguinaria canadensis ) In Bloom – March 23, 2016
The weather focus today will be on an active cold front with a band of showers & thunderstorms moving east-northeast toward the mountains this afternoon.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Friday – March 25, 2016
Rainfall is needed with only 1.14″ so far this month in Clintwood. Superintendent Gary Hampton, of the Big Stone Gap Water Plant, reports that 1.55″ has fallen this month at Big Cherry Lake Dam. Far below average for the month of March.
*The January 1 to March 23 precip total being 17.01″ at Big Cherry Dam.
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Friday – March 25, 2016
The GFS Model disagrees with the NAM Model and on this latest run is predicting less than 0.10″ of rainfall. That would fit the dry pattern of March 2016, but is also in disagreement with the European 9 KM Model.
*The European Model predicts the heaviest rains to fall from Norton-Wise southwest along the VA-KY border, with lesser amounts toward the northeast over the Russell Fork Basin.
HRRR Model Future Doppler Forecast At 4 PM This Afternoon
A band of showers and thunderstorms will be west of the mountains by early afternoon, with eastward progression to near the Virginia-Kentucky border by 6:00 PM give or take an hour or so for the lead band ( local development could occur in advance of the lead band, with showers ).
A secondary line, along and just ahead of the cold front, as noted above, will likely arrive by late Thursday Night into early hours of the overnight followed by a decrease by the predawn-sunrise period of Good Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight into Friday morning.
Storm Prediction Center Risk of Severe ThunderstormsRisk of Wind Damage Within 25 Miles Of Any Given PointStorm Prediction Center Discussion
Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be issued as this line moves east across Kentucky-Tennessee toward the Appalachians this afternoon.
