My Weekend Forecast ( March 20-21 )

ALERT For Dense Fog Formation Along & North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide On NNW-N Upslope Flow Late Saturday Into Sunday Morning For Middle-Upper Elevations above 2500-3000 Feet

9:00 PM Update on Saturday – Very Dense fog has developed above 3400 feet, with freezing fog at highest elevations, on northerly upslope flow.  Cloud bases and the freezing level will drop into the overnight and reach down to around the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone.

The latest model trends suggest that any snow accumulations will be restricted to highest elevations, above 3300 feet, and be light, with generally 1″ or less.  Little to no snow accumulations are now expected for elevations below 3300 feet.

Saturday Morning-Afternoon

Cloudy skies will give way initially to virga as dry low level air will cause evaporation of Doppler detectable echoes over the area into the overnight.  Sprinkles will be possible, with a better chance of showers-light rain developing during the sunrise to mid-morning period.

A good chance for light rain-showers will continue into the early afternoon, with a possible break following during the mid-late afternoon.

Temperatures during the day will be chilly and generally range in the 40s, with dropping temperatures amid dense fog at the summit level of the High Knob Massif ( in 30s ) during the mid-late afternoon.

Saturday afternoon temperatures reached the low 50s in Norton-Wise and adjacent middle elevation communities, with 40s above 3000 feet.  The presence of significant dry air in lower levels and lack of enough rain to reach saturation delayed the lowering of cloud bases at upper elevations until after cold air transport got underway after 5:00 PM.  A rapid drop in cloud bases occurred following sunset, with dense fog being observed by 9:00 PM at elevations above 3400 feet.

The lower limit of dense fog formation is yet to be determined, but is estimated to reach within the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone for locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide overnight into Sunday morning.  Freezing fog at the highest elevations will also drop lower with time as the freezing level lowers overnight into Sunday morning.  Some freezing drizzle, drizzle and/or very light snow will also be possible.

*The dense fog and freezing fog level may remain above Wise, but this is yet to be determined overnight into Sunday morning ( if not reaching Wise it will not be very far above ).  Caution is advised for those planning on traveling overnight into Sunday morning along roadways that reach above 2500-3000 feet for low visibilities.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A general NE-ENE wind flow will shift northerly during the afternoon and colder air will begin to arrive by the 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM period at elevations of Norton-Wise.  Cloud bases will tend to drop from upper into middle elevations as cold air and low-level moisture combine on northerly upslope.

Any light precipitation developing on upslope flow will fall as drizzle or light snow, with any snow that sticks expected to remain at elevations above 3000 to 3500 feet.

*Some light echoes developing on Dual-Pol Doppler as of 9:30 PM Saturday will move south into the area on northerly upslope flow into the overnight as drizzle or very light snow ( mainly for places along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).

Sunday Afternoon Into Sunday Night

Latest model trends suggest some drier low-level air may try to work into the area, with low morning cloud bases-dense fog lifting.  If breaks in the overcast occur this could allow temperatures to rise into the 40s to low 50s at lower-middle elevations, with 30s across upper elevations above 3300 feet.  This may need to be updated later, as if clouds hold temperatures will be colder than this at all elevations along the upslope side of the mountains ( especially, with respect to NW upslope flow ).

Some flow off the Great Lakes will keep a chance for rain showers, or higher elevation snow showers-flurries, as a possibility late Sunday into Sunday Night.

Weekend Bottom Line

The Bottom Line: Palm Sunday Weekend will be colder than average for this time of year, but any snowfall is looking to be light and mainly restricted to highest elevations above 3300 feet ( with respect to sticking ).

Colder air will begin to arrive late Saturday PM into Saturday Night, with potential for cloud bases to drop and obscure middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide in dense fog ( this would impact typical locations subject to dense fog on northerly flow from Wise, and higher locations around Norton, to the ridge communities across Wise and Dickenson counties ).

*Freezing fog will be possible at elevations above 2700-3000 feet.

If drier air works into the area Sunday cloud bases will lift and there could even be some breaks.  If this occurs then temperatures will warm more than if clouds hold all day long.  The potential for flow off the Great Lakes will keep a chance for rain showers and snow showers in the forecast for late Sunday into Sunday Night.  Any accumulations again look to be light.

Weather Discussion ( March 18-20 )

A frosty cold start to your TGIF featured temperatures in the 20s in colder mountain valleys across Wise & Dickenson counties ( 29 degrees being the official MIN in Clintwood ).

*Widespread sub-freezing air temperatures were observed and reported in mountain valleys across the area ( nothing atypical for this time of year, but at least notable in wake of recent mildness ).

The day was again beautiful, with 50s to low-middle 60s across much of the area under mostly sunny skies.  I have taken many photographs of Yellow Trout Lilies during this month.  During Friday afternoon I came across what was probably the most beautiful one I’d seen ( young and fresh in nice light ).

Some clouds began increasing aloft toward sunset.

While still looking colder than average, this weekend weather picture is not looking as bad today as it did yesterday and the day before.

With exception of northeastern West Virginia and extreme northwestern & northern Virginia, models have trended a little weaker with this system.  There is some uncertainty remaining, especially with respect to wrap-around and Great Lake moisture transport.

Any accumulations across the southern Appalachians are looking to be at highest elevations, and mostly light, but could be a littler heavier for some places if the low-level moisture is better than currently shown.

An aspect of local concern being the potential for cloud bases to drop into middle elevations late Saturday into Sunday morning to generate dense fog as the colder air is transported across the mountains on NNW-N upslope flow.  This would impact Wise & adjacent communities along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide with the most dense fog and poor travel conditions.

As of 9:00 PM Saturday dense fog was down to 3400 feet, with a lowering of cloud bases expected overnight into Sunday morning into the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone.  This will either reach Wise or be just above that level by overnight into Sunday morning.

*Freezing fog, with riming, at the High Knob Massif summit level at 9:00 PM Saturday will also drop with time as the freezing level lowers toward 2500-3000 feet into Sunday morning.  Prolonged and most significant riming will occur at elevations above 3300 feet through Sunday morning ( with lifting cloud bases expected during the day as temperatures warm into the 30s and 40s ).

Have a great March Madness Weekend. 

My Forecast For Today ( March 18 )

Heavy frost, with a freeze in colder valleys, will occur overnight into this morning.  Increasing clouds with development of precip into Saturday morning will prevent frost.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear.  Frosty in mountain valleys.  Light winds generally less than 10 mph below 2700 feet.  NW-N winds at 10-15 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation ridges.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the upper 30s to low-mid 40s ( mildest along mid elevation ridges and exposed plateaus ).

This Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny with increasing cloudiness by late.  Light NW-N winds generally less than 10 mph.  Cool.  Temps varying from mid-upper 40s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Cloudy with a cold rain developing by morning.  Winds shifting ENE-ESE at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s to low-mid 40s.  Wind chill factors dropping into the 20s & 30s along highest ridges.

Rain will change to snow above 3200 feet elevation by around sunset Saturday, with snow level dropping to 2000-2500 feet by overnight into Sunday.  The potential exists for several inches of snow at the highest elevations, with 1″ or less below 3000 feet.  Stay tuned for later updates.

Weather Discussion ( March 17-18 )

A frosty start to Thursday occurred in mountain valleys across southwestern Virginia, with a MIN of 32 degrees being observed officially in Clintwood.  Temperatures plunged into upper 20s in the coldest valleys to be in contrast with much milder readings along exposed mountain  ridges at mid-upper elevations.

A similar setting will develop into this morning ( Friday ) but temperatures will be a few degrees colder in many places, with hard freezes and heavy frost widespread in valleys across Wise and Dickenson counties ( Indian Creek-Pound-Clintwood and the Norton-Tacoma-Coeburn corridors, as examples, will feature nearly continuous frost ( as seen on Thursday AM ).

Bright sunshine prevailed through much of the day before some late afternoon mid to high clouds rolled across.  Combined with gusty winds the Trout Lilies were flared out and shaking all day, requiring substantial shutter speeds to stop the motion.

One more nice day for your TGIF should be enjoyed before a nasty Palm Sunday weekend takes shape, with a cold rain developing into Saturday Morning.  Saturday looks to be a raw, nasty day with precipitation changing to snow at the upper elevations ( above 3000 feet ) by around sunset.

Models continue to struggle with amounts and placement, except for general agreement for the bulls-eye of heaviest snow across eastern-northeastern West Virginia and extreme northwestern and northern Virginia ( up to 6″ or more at high elevations ).

Locally, across the Mountain Empire, snowfall will be elevation biased with the most accumulations at the highest elevations where there still looks to be a chance for 2-3″+ above 3000 to 4000+ feet during the Saturday Night-Monday AM period.

Even at these highest elevations, some melting will likely occur such that more snow will tend to fall than is ever on the ground at any given time ( given recent anomalous warmth during the past ten days ).  Accumulations below 3000 feet will be restricted to night-time and early morning hours.

The NAM Model group wants to generate the best sticking during Sunday Night into Monday AM at elevations below 3000 feet, as moisture from the Great Lakes comes into the area on WNW to NW upslope flow.  Any sticking Saturday Night into Sunday morning being mostly above 3000 feet, with the chance that snow levels will drop to 2000-2500 feet elevation by Sunday Morning.

The above scenario will need to be updated, with a better idea hopefully had by this time tomorrow night.

The Bottom Line – A frosty cold start in mountain valleys this morning will give way to one more nice day before a raw, nasty weekend settles into the mountain region for the Palm Sunday period.

*This includes the official astronomical beginning to spring; however, for climate purposes, Spring 2016 started with the arrival of March ( i.e., Meteorological Spring of March-May ).

Cold rain will develop into the overnight-morning hours of Saturday, with low clouds and wet, raw conditions during the day.  It will feel especially  chilly in wake of recent anomalously warm days.

Colder air begins overspreading the mountain area by the sunset-Midnight period of Saturday.  Any precip lingering will change to snow above 3200 feet during Saturday evening, with snow levels dropping over time into Sunday morning for any moisture left.

Current uncertainty rests with how much moisture will be left for Saturday Night into Sunday morning, and if there may be a break before moisture wraps back into the mountains with Great Lake moisture transport by later Sunday into the early hours of Monday ( before ending ).

Any snow accumulations will be elevation biased, with heaviest amounts most likely above 3000-4000+ feet, with lighter amounts ( generally 1″ or less ) currently expected at elevations below 3000 feet ( mostly amid the 1500-3000 foot zone on the upslope side of the mountain chain with respect to WNW-NW flow ).

Stay tuned for updates, since this system is yet to develop and changes may still occur depending upon numerous factors ( such as storm track-strength ).

Please NOTE that 23 of the past 27 Aprils going back to 1989 have had measurable snow in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif ( before that, 4+ FEET of snow fell in April 1987 ).  So please, let no one think this is anomalous.  It is still only March!!!

Have a great TGIF.

My Forecast For Today ( March 17 )

Frost will be likely in colder mountain valleys into this morning, as well as tomorrow night into Friday AM when a more widespread coverage will be possible in valleys.  Exposed mid-elevation sites, in typical thermal belts, are expected to remain frost free.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear.  Cooler.  W-NW winds decreasing to mostly less than 10 mph below 2700 feet.  WNW winds 10-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on upper elevation ridges.  Temps varying from the 30s in colder valleys to the lower-mid 40s.  Wind chills in the 30s along upper elevation ridges.

This Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  W winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the upper 40s at the highest elevations to the middle 50s to lower-mid 60s.

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Mostly clear into the overnight.  Increasing high clouds toward morning.  Frosty in mountain valleys.  Light winds generally less than 10 mph below 2700 feet.  NW winds at 10-15 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation ridges.  Temperatures varying from upper 20s to low 30s in colder valleys to the upper 30s to low-mid 40s ( mildest along mid elevation ridges and exposed plateaus ).

A chance for accumulating snow continues to be monitored for the Palm Sunday Weekend ( centered on March 20-21 ).  Prolonged sub-freezing temperatures are expected.

Weather Discussion ( March 16-17 )

Another very nice early spring day was observed across the mountain area Wednesday; albeit, gusty with a significant drying of the low-level air via efficient vertical mixing.

The above scene is focused on Golden Ragwort ( Packera spp. ) whose green basal leaves are shown amid mosses, grasses, a few developing Dandelions, American Beech leaves, and other species.

Afternoon temperature got somewhat warmer than I thought, especially at lower-middle elevations thanks to a boost from downsloping S-SW winds, with a large variation from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif, 60s in Norton-Wise-Sandy Ridge, to the lower-middle 70s from Pound to Clintwood to Grundy.

The nearly unidirectional flow aloft, which enhanced vertical mixing and dried the air was key to getting air temperatures in downslope locations above 70 degrees.

This made 7 out of the past 9 days in Clintwood to officially rise above 70 degrees.  The last day to do this until next week.  Only 2 out of the past 9 days, by contrast, have broken 70 degrees within places above 2700 feet in elevation.  No days on northern slopes amid upper elevations, above 3300 feet, have broke 70 degrees.  The important off-setting factor for mountain valleys at lower-middle elevations being much cooler nights vs. middle elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

As my climatology & nature journals show well, the above type of temperature distribution is key to the spring green up pattern featuring the fastest emergence of vegetation amid middle elevation thermal belt zones where MEAN air temperatures are warmer than locations above and below them ( the cooler valleys below them being due to colder nights, while the cooler elevations above thermal belts being due to both cooler days ( high ridges & lofty valleys ) and cooler nights ( especially in high valleys ).

*The Wise and Sandy Ridge plateaus being classic examples of middle elevation thermal belt locations in this area, and long favored for orchards and other early-late season crops which depend upon a longer growing season ( i.e., frost sensitive ).

While temperatures will feel notably cooler today, they get much cooler and just down right cold from Saturday into Sunday-Monday ( especially ).

The flow is also northwesterly, such that any precipitation falling will have a chance to be frozen with some possible enhancement along the windward ( upslope ) side of the mountain chain.

*If this forecast verified it would cause temperatures to remain in the 20s during Sunday-Monday at elevations above 3000-3300 ft, with 30s across lower-middle elevations in the Cumberlands and low-mid 40s within locations downslope amid river valleys of the Clinch, Powell, Holston watersheds toward the Tri-Cities.

More should be known by tonight into Friday as models continue to try and figure out this late season winter setting across the eastern USA.

As typical of March, a week from now the pattern flips again with warmer and wetter conditions ( showers and downpours in thunderstorms become possible ) looking likely by mid to late next week.  Stay tuned.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 16 )

Overnight Into Sunrise

Mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds by morning.  Becoming windy on mountain ridges-plateaus.  Winds becoming SSW-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps in the 50s to lower 60s, except dropping into the 40s to low 50s in mountain valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.

Sunrise Through Mid-Day

Mostly cloudy.  Gusty.  Chance of a shower, local thunder possible.  SW winds shifting W at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s ( dropping to around 50 degrees at High Knob Massif summit level ).

This Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Gusty.  Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps varying from the low-mid 50s across upper elevations to the low-mid 60s, warmer south toward the Tri-Cities.

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Mostly clear.  Cooler.  W-WNW winds decreasing to mostly less than 10 mph below 2700 feet.  WNW winds 10-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on upper elevation ridges.  Temps varying from the 30s in colder valleys to the lower-mid 40s.  Wind chills in the 30s along upper elevation ridges.

A chance for accumulating snow continues to be monitored for the Palm Sunday Weekend ( centered on March 20-21 ).  Stay tuned for updates on this system.

Weather Discussion ( March 15-16 )

Tuesday was a simply delightful day in the mountains, with large day to night temperature spreads now being observed amid mountains valleys ( from a MAX of 76 degrees temps have fallen to 45 degrees, as of 2:00 AM, here in Clintwood ).

Following showers & thunderstorms, which produced 0.54″ of rain during the past couple of days in Clintwood, the drying of air aloft was evident this afternoon with nice blue skies amid the Beeches.

Climb upward out of the deep mountain hollows and it is a mild and gusty night ( windy ) along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.

This is a rare March night when 20-30+ mph winds across high ridges are not accompanied by any substantial wind chill factors.

Even our highest resolution models can not pick up on the large vertical temperature differences occurring across our complex terrain, with large temp differences over short distances and within the lower 1000-2000 vertical feet of the atmosphere tonight ( as of 1:00 to 2:00 AM ).

Following another fast moving morning cold front, with a chance for hit-miss showers and perhaps local thunder in a thin line along-ahead of the boundary, yet another very nice afternoon is expected today.

Mountain valleys are likely to turn frosty into Thursday morning, especially amid the colder locations, as winds calm and another inversion develops amid lower dewpoint air tonight.

Focus then shifts to a cooling trend and the Palm Sunday weekend system, which is looking a little weaker & a little farther east on its track.

The Ensemble MEAN snowfall forecast was still in the 2-3″ range for the Wise gridpoint, with variations from 0″ up to more than 6″ on the 51-Member group Tuesday ( 12z run ).

As always, check back for updates on this late winter-early spring weather system.

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 15 )

Overnight Into Morning

Cloudy with showers into the overnight, then decreasing.  Areas of fog, especially at highest elevations.  SW winds becoming W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( wind chill factors in the 30s at highest elevations ).

*Fog will become more widespread in nature should skies clear before sunrise.

Mid-Morning Through This Afternoon

Morning clouds & any fog giving way to sunny skies.  Pleasant.  Southerly winds at generally less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from lower 60s to low-mid 70s, coolest at the highest elevations.

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds by morning.  Becoming windy on mountain ridges-plateaus.  Winds becoming SSW-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps in the 50s to lower 60s, except dropping into the 40s to low 50s in mountain valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.

Air will turn colder by Friday, with a late season winter storm potential being monitored for Palm Sunday weekend-Monday  during the March 19-21 period.  Stay tuned for later updates.

Weather Discussion ( March 13-15 )

That March is a fickle weather month is no surprise, with some of the greatest storm events on record being observed during this month.  From great blizzards ( March 1942 and March 1993 ) to destructive floods ( March 2002 ) and severe thunderstorms ( March 2012 ), this month can be amazing.

*It was 23 years ago today that the mountain area was just starting to dig out from Superstorm 1993.  Snowfall totals reached 30″ in Wise, 34″ in Clintwood, and 46″ to 58″ amid upper elevations of  the High Knob Massif ( snow drifts of up to 20-25 feet ).

So it should be no real surprise that this week begins with rain showers & thunderstorms, amid unseasonable warmth, and could end with cold air and snowflakes ( details yet to be worked out, but that is the clear trend on current runs ).

Reference Early Spring In The Appalachians for more scenes.

Native species, such as our ephemeral wildflower beauties, are adapted for such changes and even for those which can be significant between day and night ( Bloodroot, which has not yet bloomed, curls up as protection against cold nights ).

Showers, hit-miss thunderstorms with downpours and local hail, and beautiful cloud formations were all part of changing weather conditions observed during Monday ( March 14 ).

More changes are ahead this week as beautiful conditions today give way to increasing winds tonight ahead of the next system featuring a deep low over the Great Lakes.

It is the late week period that will be drawing the most attention as low pressure moves across the Gulf and up along the Atlantic Coast.  Track & intensity are yet to be determined, but the Monday MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles show an “interesting” potential.

Despite unseasonable warmth in recent days, there will be plenty of cold air pouring in by the Palm Sunday Weekend when temperatures in the southern Appalachians could be approaching 20 degrees ( F ) below average for mid-March.

Stay tuned for updates in coming days.

Have a great Tuesday.

My Weekend Forecast ( March 12-13 )

Any thunderstorms which may develop this weekend could possess heavy rainfall ( and always dangerous lightning ).

Saturday Morning To Afternoon

Continued mild with an abundance of clouds will be the main weather theme into today.  Patchy areas of fog will remain possible overnight, with widespread temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s ( coolest in valleys along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).

*A weak boundary pushed across the area with light showers and sprinkles during Friday.  This allowed cooler air to bank up along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide, with areas of fog at times, verses locations to the south ( still the entire region remained much warmer than average for March ).

While there will be a chance of afternoon showers, with local thunder if conditions become unstable enough, the day will feature many dry hours in most locations.  Temps will warm into the 60s and 70s, varying from around 60 degrees at the High Knob Lookout to mid-upper 70s in warmer locations ( especially in main river valleys ).   Expect light & southerly winds.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

*Remember to SPRING FORWARD & Set Time Ahead 1-Hour

Cloudy & mild conditions continue with an increasing chance for showers, and possible thunder, during the predawn to post-sunrise period on Sunday.  Winds will increase and be SSE-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps will remain unseasonably warm with widespread readings in the 50s to middle 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).  Expect areas of fog to be possible.

Sunday Afternoon

The chance for showers, with possible thunder, continues into the afternoon.  Mild conditions do as well with temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees for most places.  Expect temps in the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif.  Winds will be S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.

Sunday Night Into Monday

The best chance for more significant rain, with possible thunder, will likely develop Monday.  Meanwhile, a break will become likely after any Sunday PM-evening activity wanes.  Expect gusty SSW-SW winds of 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, across mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus during Sunday Night into Monday AM ( especially on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges ).  Areas of fog will be possible in valleys.  Temps will be widespread in the 50s, with 40s in cooler mountain valleys.

Updated: 2:00 AM Monday ( March 14, 2016 )

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, with the main threat being the potential for wind damage from the stronger storms.

The HRRR Model future Doppler shows showers and storms overspreading southwestern Virginia and NE Tennessee this afternoon.  Some of these could be strong to locally severe.

The HRRR Model is timing activity to overspread southwest Virginia and northeastern Tennessee between 2 to 4 PM.

This timing could, of course, vary a little, with the main idea being that showers and thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon across the Mountain Empire.

Weather Discussion ( March 11-13 )

Although a weak boundary pushed across the mountains during Friday, with abundant low clouds ( dense fog amid upper elevations of the High Knob Massif ) and a few light showers and sprinkles, temperatures remained above the average for this time of year ( coolest along-north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).

PM temperatures varied from low-mid 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to upper 50s to lower 60s in Norton-Wise and Clintwood ( 62.6 degrees being the official PM MAX in Clintwood ).

While my goal was to capture some more shots of Yellow Trout Lilies, as it ended up I found few blooms since it appeared that White-tailed Deer had been eating them about as fast as they emerged ( many lily leaves but no nice blooms ).

I found many more rain drops dangling amid spider webs near the forest floor than Lily blooms, thus the above photograph which is focused upon reflections of leaves and trees in the drops.

A few other scenes of interest.

The weather focus through this weekend remains on unseasonably warm air with a chance for some rain showers at times, and possible thunder if it becomes unstable enough.  The European 9 KM Model continues showing the bulk of the most widespread activity remaining west of the mountains this weekend.

*As I noted in my 031116 Forecast discussion, a key factor will be the amount of instability which can develop.  Rain and especially thunderstorms will remain more limited if the instability does not increase enough to support it ( periods of sunshine would help the atmosphere to become more unstable and increase activity ).

The above is what the high-resolution NAM 4 KM Model is trying to show, with locally heavy rainfall and storms amid a region with much lighter amounts along the mountains.  Placement of the heaviest rains, of course, being a model guess, with the displayed pattern being most important as it shows hit-miss convection with downpours.

A relatively weak disturbance will be moving across the area on Monday, with a stronger system expected by the middle of next week as the flow pattern begins to turn much cooler ( and eventually cold ).

Reference my 031116 Extended Outlook for more details.

Meanwhile, enjoy the warmth while its here because changes back to a much colder pattern are coming later next week-weekend.

Have a great weekend.

My Forecast For Today ( March 11 )

Overnight Into This Morning

Cloudy and gusty.  Warm.  A chance for rain showers or sprinkles.  SW-WSW winds 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, across middle to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures widespread in the 50s and 60s ( coolest in the most sheltered mountain valleys and along highest ridges ).

Mid-Morning Through Friday Afternoon

A chance of rain showers or sprinkles into early PM.  Mild.  Winds shifting N-NE and decreasing to generally less than 10 mph ( becoming variable into late PM ).  Temperatures in the 50s to middle 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A chance for showers developing into morning.  Winds SSE-SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, by the overnight-morning along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures widespread in the 50s.

Weather Discussion ( March 10-11 )

The main change in my forecast, from the one made last night for tonight, is to reduce precipitation to a chance for rain showers or sprinkles as the mountain area is caught in a general subsidence zone ( with sinking air aloft ) north of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the Deep South.

So far, as of 2:00 AM, there has been just enough rain to dampen the ground in places.  These rain showers and sprinkles, mostly light, will continue into this morning.

Abundant clouds and gusty winds are keeping the air well mixed with only the most sheltered valleys dropping into the 50s to match the highest mountain ridges.  The rest of the mountain area is basking in 60s ( like a summer night ).

The other main change on this update being to delay the passage of a weak cold frontal boundary until after sunrise, which will keep unseasonably warm conditions all night.  Temperatures on your TGIF will be cooler than in past days, but still mild for this time of year ( coolest conditions today being along and north of the High Knob Massif, and at highest elevations, in far SW VA ).

The abundance of clouds is helping hold heat from the past day, with a general subsidence or sinking air regime aiding this over the Mountain Empire which is north of drenching rain-thunderstorms over the Dixie States.

The 73 degree record in Wise, established back on March 10 in 2009, will be in jeopardy once the official data comes in as air temperatures were right at that point on Thursday.

The NWS Cooperative Site at Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge was right at 73 degrees during Thursday ( elevation of 2650 feet above sea level ).  Temperatures at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise are not official, with the official site for Wise being the NWS Cooperative located approximately 3 miles east of the Courthouse.

Thursday temperatures across the area in general varied from mid 60s atop the High Knob Massif, at highest sites, to upper 70s ( 78 degrees in Clintwood ).  Readings at or above 80 degrees occurred within lowlands to the south, toward the Tri-Cities ( 82 degrees officially at TRI ).

The NAM Model group continues to show much more rain this weekend than the European Model, which is holding off on the most significant rainfall until early-middle parts of next week, and even later in time into the extended.  A first test for this upgrade to see how it may handle this setting.

So far its been dead on target with excessive rain over the lower Mississippi Valley, with amounts reaching and even locally exceeding the 16.00″ or so it was predicting from 2-days ago.  All models tend to struggle with total amounts when convection is involved ( which may be key to local amounts through this weekend…will it become unstable enough for any convection? Convection could cause locally heavy amounts.  If not, then amounts may come in on the low end, like the latest ECMWF is showing in general ).

Reference my 031116 Extended Outlook for a look ahead at a pattern which will trend back to colder conditions during the second half of March 2016.

Have a great TGIF.

My Forecast For Today ( March 10 )

Overnight Into This Morning

High altitude clouds.  Gusty across mid to upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.  SSW-SW winds increasing to 05-15 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, across upper elevation ridges.  Mild with widespread temps in the lower 50s to lower 60s on mid-upper elevation ridges and plateaus verses upper 30s to lower 40s in sheltered valleys protected from gusty winds.

This Afternoon

Mix of clouds and sun with an increasing cloudiness trend by late afternoon.  Unseasonably warm.  SSW-SW winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60 to 65 degrees at highest elevations to the mid-upper 70s  ( 70-75 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Cloudy & gusty into the early overnight.  Warm.  Showers, with a chance of thunder, developing by late evening into the overnight.  SW-WSW winds 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus shifting NNW-N and decreasing to 5-15 mph by morning.  Temperatures widespread in the 50s & 60s throughout the evening, dropping into mid-upper 40s to mid-upper 50s by morning ( coolest at the highest elevations ).

Weather Discussion ( March 9-10 )

I was able to get into the woods for a little while during the afternoon hours of Wednesday and found many Trout Lilies coming up, but only one or two beginning to bloom.

My nature journal shows that the first Coltsfoot and Trout Lilies started blooming in recent years during the following periods:

2015
Late March

2014
Mid-Late March

2013
Late March-Early April

2012
Late February-early March

2011
Early-Mid March

2010
Mid-Late March

Blooming times being dictated by weather conditions during any given year, with the scene below illustrating what it looked like one year ago Wednesday in the High Knob Lake Basin.

A general 10″ to 15″ of snow depth, with 18″ to 30″ depths in places, were observed one year ago today in the High Knob Lake Basin in wake of a huge February 2015 snowpack ( this was part of a 14-day gush of water run-off ).

Anomalous warmth which developed in March 2012, and triggered devastating tornadoes in eastern Kentucky, got early wildflowers like Coltsfoot and Trout Lilies blooming earlier than this year.  By contrast, a snowy-cold March in 2013 did not allow for blooming until late March into early April ( the latest observed since 2010 ).

Observe the nice red pollen that is on this plant from the stamens.  A few early season insects were working, of course, the flower in unseasonable warmth on this day ( not record warmth here, but not far away either ).

Polypore Fungi which over-wintered are nice and white along a Cherry Birch ( Betula lenta ).  These are the main fungi visible now as everyone waits for beloved Morel’s ( called Dry-land Fish in the mountains ) to emerge into mid-Spring.

The weather focus tonight is on yet another vertical temp spread that is finding sheltered valleys with readings in the chilly 40s verses widespread 50s across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus ( 60s in lowlands to the west and south of the Cumberland Mountains ).

Abundant mid-high clouds and mixing are making vertical temp differences smaller tonight, with 3:00 AM readings varying from 45 degrees here in Clintwood to upper 50s in Wise ( 51 degrees atop the High Knob Massif amid gusty SW winds ).

While an increase in moisture along a weak boundary will bring showers, with a chance of thunder, by late tonight into Friday morning, this boundary will stall and tend to wobble back and forth across the area to generate periods when showers will be possible ( but nothing like the fire hose of concentrated moisture that is flooding the lower Mississippi Valley with local 10-20″ rainfall amounts ).

Note how dry air northwest of the mountains ( above graphic ) settles south into the area ( below ) by Friday afternoon.

Moisture with the boundary returns north Friday Night into Saturday ( below ) with a chance for more rain showers.

Drier air may then return by Saturday night into Sunday.

I have used the precpitable water forecast charts, which I introduced to you in my 030916 Forecast, to illustrate how models are suggesting a weak boundary will wobble around the area with periodic chances for showers from tonight into this weekend ( but with many dry hours likely ).

It is the upcoming 5-10+ day period ahead, beyond the next 4 days, that I am looking at with most interest as this will be a period of change with progression of the western USA trough eastward.

There is increasing potential being shown for a much wetter, and eventually much cooler, pattern during the extended 5-10+ day period.

*Very preliminary rainfall estimates of 3.00″ to 5.00″+ are being forecast by the European Model along the Cumberland Mountains and Cumberland Plateau during the 5-10 day forecast period that is centered on the week of St. Patrick’s Day.  A trend that will need to be closely followed in coming days using this 51-Member group.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 9 )

Reference my 030816 Forecast for the first spring photos.

A large vertical temperature spread, which is typical during much of the year in the mountains, will continue to be a prevalent factor tonight and again tomorrow night ( perhaps to a lesser degree by Wednesday Night into Thursday if wind speeds can increase enough to generate better vertical mixing ).

Overnight Into This Morning

Variable clouds ( intervals of high altitude cloudiness ).  Gusty across mid to upper elevation ridges-plateaus.  S-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SSW-SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from the 30s within colder mountain valleys to the upper 40s to middle 50s on exposed mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus.

This Afternoon

Hazy sunshine & high clouds.  Unseasonably warm.  Winds S-SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 60-65 degrees at upper elevations to the upper 60s to middle 70s ( coolest at highest elevations ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

High altitude clouds.  Gusty across mid to upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.  SSW-SW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, across upper elevation ridges.  Mild with widespread temps in the lower 50s to lower 60s on mid-upper elevation ridges and plateaus verses upper 30s to lower 40s in sheltered valleys protected from gusty winds.

Showers, with a chance for thunderstorms, will become likely Thursday Night into Friday.  Local downpours may be possible.

Weather Discussion ( March 8-9 )

Although pollen like this is not yet being generated, neither are such flowers, there is and will be increasing amounts of pollen from maple, willow, and various other species in the air during this unseasonably warm spell of early spring.

Pollens which actually can not be seen with the naked eye are the ones which tend to cause most of the misery to those who suffer.

Strong temperature inversions, with cold air drainage into mountain valleys, tend to hold back the pollen season some in the mountains ( as it does along chillier upper elevation ridges ) if you live in these naturally cooler locations.

Thermal belt sites, with colder air beneath them ( especially at night ) as well as above them, are the most favored places for surges of early season pollination.  In this area thermal belts are typically found upon middle elevation ridges and plateaus at elevations somewhere between 2000-3000 feet.

As I have written about many times in the past, pioneers were the first to discover thermal belts in the mountains and quickly began locating orchards and other frost sensitive crops in these sites.  I will have much more on such microclimatology in weeks ahead.

Focus now shifts to a slowly increasing moisture regime with models showing a significant spike upwards in total water amid the atmosphere by Thursday Night into Friday.

The precipitable water value above the Wise gridpoint at 7:00 PM Tuesday was only 0.30″ on the NAM 12 KM Model analysis.  That means if all the moisture between the surface and top of a vertical column were to be precipitated out it would generate a depth of 0.3″ on the surface.

We can judge the amount of water in the atmosphere by using a quantity known as precipitable water, which is a measure of all the moisture in a vertical column between the surface and upper troposphere ( if precipitated directly out the depth of this water on a surface would identically equal the PW value ( Precipitable Water value ) ).

Computer models can quickly calculate these values by using calculus & integrating the dewpoint ( or saturation mixing ratio ) between the surface and top of the troposphere ( where moisture typically becomes a minimum ).  Integration, of course, yielding  by definition a summation whose value = the PW value for any given vertical column of air above a given gridpoint or interpolated point amid the larger-scale forecast grid.

The NAM 12 KM Model ( above ) predicts a rather dramatic increase in PW values between now ( very dry air ) and late Thursday into Friday morning when values rise to around 1.50″ ( moderately high for any given time of year ).

While PW values are always important, they also need to always be looked at with respect to mean climatological values for the time of year.

For example, mean monthly PW values for March between the surface and 500 MB are roughly around 1.20″ ( closer to 1.00″ during early March ).  So if a 1.50″ PW value develops into early Friday it will be approximately 20% to 30% above average for this time of year.

By comparison, the current PW values at 7:00 PM Tuesday was only 25% to 30% of average for this time of year ( approximately 4 times below average for early March ).

Another forecast factor I like to look at is the thickness of the atmosphere between the surface and 500 MB.  Heavy rain often has a preferred thickness range within which climatology shows that it tends to fall during any given time of year.  Early March preferences for this mountain region being roughly around 556 dkm ( +/- ) 5 dkm.

In other words, the vertical depth of the atmosphere between the surface and 500 MB tends to be around 5,560 meters give or take some 500 meters ( 551 to 561 dkm ).  The forecast above by 1 AM Friday is a little higher than the preferred thickness here, at around 565 dkm or 5,650 meters ( by contrast, the thickness predicted over Arkansas is within the preferred range ).

Looking strictly at the above, one might say that rainfall will become likely ( with local downpours possible ) but not yet within the preferred range for widespread heavy rain.  Remembering, most importantly, the above is a forecast and this will need to be followed and adjusted accordingly as time for rain to occur gets closer.

The latest European 9 KM Model run is keeping the bulk of heavier rain well to the north and west of the Mountain Empire through Saturday Morning.  A trend to follow.

There are many other factors that forecasters should look at to form the complete picture, with the above being only  a glimpse into how moisture values should be considered.

***An important note is that when convection is able to form it can compensate for lower PW values, at any given point or time, via inflow which tends to concentrate PW values and increase them over localized areas ( thus greatly complicating what might seem to be a rather clear-cut way of forecasting rainfall intensity ).  Superimposed upon a boundary or favorable topography adds more layers to this “rainfall equation.”

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 8 )

Overnight Into This Morning

Mid-high altitude clouds.  Large vertical temperature spread between cold valleys and windy mountain ridges and plateaus.  SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in colder mountain valleys to the upper 40s to middle 50s on exposed middle-upper elevation ridges & plateaus.  Wind chills in the 30s and 40s ( coldest along high elevation ridges ).

This Afternoon

Hazy sunshine through high altitude clouds.  Warm.  Winds SW-SSE at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 50s in upper elevations to the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Variable clouds ( intervals of high altitude cloudiness ).  Gusty across mid to upper elevation ridges-plateaus.  S-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SSW-SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from the 30s within colder mountain valleys to the mid-upper 40s to low-middle 50s on exposed mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus.

Weather Discussion ( March 7-8 )

The first true signs of the spring season are slowly starting to emerge amid the mountain area, with increased singing of birds, choruses of frogs, and a few wildflowers.

I found the first Coltsfoot poking up through the leaves near the UVA-Wise Wetlands, during late on Monday afternoon, amid nice songs from male Red-winged Blackbirds ( Agelaius phoeniceus ).

The UVA-Wise Wetlands are part of a restoration project designed to capture, filter, and clean acid mine drainage before it enters the main watershed draining into the Clinch River.

The Wetlands At UVA-Wise

Weather conditions Monday were certainly much different from that observed Saturday, when big flakes of snow fell and covered highest elevations in the High Knob Massif.  I caught only a few good scenes in between showers of snow and snow-sleet.

The U.S. Forest Service is proposing a large burn ( 1122 acres ) and timber cut that will impact 50% of the 7464 acres stretching across the Clear Creek, Machine Creek, Burns Creek, and a small part of the Mill Creek basins in the High Knob Massif.

Some blemishes in the photographs are actually flakes of snow, as I captured a few images in between the showers of heavier snow.

The understory is rather lush in portions of the proposed burn.

Since everyone owns this land, everyone is encouraged to voice their opinions on this large burn and timber cut proposal.

The weather focus tonight is on another large vertical spread in temperatures between cold, frosty valleys and gusty mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.

Temperatures at 4:00 AM varied from upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the 50s on gusty middle elevation ridges.

The big news in the weather world today is the introduction of a major upgrade to the Integrated Forecast System, called the European Model.  The 12z Model Run this morning will be the first to publicly show this new upgraded package.

The statistically best medium range forecast model on the planet will be getting better according to testing preformed during the past few months on this new upgrade that will take the resolution down to 9 KM ( from 16 KM ) for the operational global group.  The unique 4-D system will utilize a octahedral reduced Gaussian grid, which will make running the model less costly while conserving general efficiency ( according to released testing results ).

The coming months should prove interesting as all eyes focus on how this new upgrade preforms under the rigors of daily global weather forecasting.  I will be most interested in watching if it will be able to better resolve the orographics and patterns which are specific to the Appalachian Mountains ( verses the current ).

*Mathematical statistics verify that the European Model has been the best medium range model for decades.  Although it struggles, like all models, at times the mathematics do not lie and clearly show that the 4-Dimensional System used by this model has been superior to all other models, especially for locations dealing with baroclinicity at middle to high latitudes.

 Meanwhile, a mild weather pattern will dominate this week with abundant clouds at high altitudes that will trend lower by late week into this weekend-next week as moisture will be increasing & eventually producing showers-storms.

Have a great Tuesday.