ALERT For The Potential Of Heavy-Excessive Rainfall Monday Along With A Chance Of A Few Strong-Locally Severe Thunderstorms
A high amount of atmospheric moisture is expected to support multiple waves of showers and downpours in thunderstorms through Monday. Locations with training storms, or prolonged heavy rainfall will be at risk for high water problems. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and/or warning which may be needed.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions Through Monday ( June 25 )
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Through Monday and during Wednesday ( June 25 and June 27 ).
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected as a heat ridge builds into and across the region.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions For June 27
A heat ridge is predicted to build across the eastern USA during late week into the upcoming weekend and next week ( through the Independence Day Holiday ).
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
While the 51-Member European Model Ensemble Mean is predicting a classic eastern USA heat ridge to form, local heating will be largely dependent on the amount of clouds and thunderstorms which develops over the mountains during any given day.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The amount of soil moisture is important to how hot it can get at this time of year, with rainfall during the next few days combining with what has already been observed during June 2018.
NWS Precipitation Analysis and Doppler Estimated Month-to-Date Rainfall
ALERT For Torrential Downpours In Thunderstorms Along With Dangerous Lightning And The Possibility Of Local Wind Damage & Hail
A ring of fire convective pattern is expected to dominate mountain area weather conditions during the coming week with periodic disturbances enhancing potential for clusters of thunderstorms. Daytime heating and instability will also trigger localized storms.
Remain tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings which may be needed during coming days.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of valley fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the middle 50s to the middle 60s.
Monday Morning Through The Afternoon
Periods of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds SSW to WSW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts in some storms. Temps varing from the 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees middle-lower elevations ( especially northwest to north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SE-SW at 5-10 mph with higher gusts. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temperatures in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts. Temps varing from upper 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to lower 80s. Warmer south into the Great Valley.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds S to SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on ridges at elevations below 2700 feet. Winds SSW to WSW 10-20 mph with higher gusts above 2700 feet. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temps in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Weather Discussion ( Stormy Pattern )
A stormy weather pattern is the main focus of this forecast period as intervals of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms roam the mountain landscape.
Pickem-Stone Mountain of High Knob Massif – Afternoon of June 9, 2018
A thunderstorm rapidly developed over the High Knob Massif during the mid-late afternoon of June 9, with 0.60″ to 2.00″ of rainfall estimated by Doppler radar centered over the basin heads of Big Cherry Lake, High Knob Lake, and the Norton Reservoirs.
*The temperature on Eagle Knob dropped from an afternoon MAX of 71.1 degrees at 5:40 PM to 59.5 degrees at 6:20 PM. Significant run-off at an elevation above 4100 feet occurred amid the heavy rainfall.
While local, hit-miss gully washing thunderstorms are expected amid unstable air the real driver of the upcoming pattern will be disturbances moving across the mountains in a general WNW upper air flow, north of steamy, heat anchored over the southern Plains & southwestern USA.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
A possible change during the 6-10 day forecast period by next weekend and the following week is being watched that could enhance the inflow of moisture from the deep tropics.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The Bottom Line…A temperate rain forest environment is expected to rule mountain area weather through coming days. Remain alert to changing conditions.
Hit-miss showers and downpours in thunderstorms will remain possible through Sunday before a refreshing air mass change arrives to kick off the first full week of June.
Summer 2018 Arrives Early At Upper Norton Reservoir
This will also mark the beginning of a new pattern that may continue well into the summer season.
European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast For June 2-6, 2018
A heat dome will remain anchored over the western USA, with a surface center developing near the Red River Valley along the Texas-Oklahoma border.
European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast For June 2-6, 2018
The Mountain Empire will initially cool down into next week as much drier, low dewpoint air surges into the area around the eastern periphery of the blazing heat.
European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast For June 7-11, 2018
This sets up a nice stretch of weather, with chilly nights in mountain valleys, until later in the 6-10 day forecast period when the heat dome begins to expand. Due to wet ground and it’s position a ring of fire convective pattern may arise.
European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast For June 7-11, 2018
While the core of the heat will remain locked in place well to the west, enough heat and instability will surge eastward to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms.
A pattern like this can become locked into place for an extended period of time, with periodic expansions of the heat dome triggering clusters of thunderstorms which hold true heat at bay and occasionally allow drier, less humid air to return during a heat dome contraction phase prior to the next expansion.
The above being the idealized scenario based upon current soil moisture variations across the nation, plus past climatology of similar settings.
