Heavy Rainfall Potential In Showers & Downpours In Thunderstorms During Thursday And Friday (August 22-23) Locally Strong Storms Possible

Late Summer 2019_High Knob Massif

An enhanced surge of humid, moisture laden air will interact with an approaching cold front and upper air wave to trigger showers and downpours in thunderstorms during Thursday into Friday. Folks living and driving along streams and within poor drainage, low-lying locations should remain alert for the potential of rapid water level rises and ponding of water.

Gaps within the coverage of heavy rains is the model way of predicting hit-miss action for heaviest amounts, although, a tendency for heaviest rains along & west of the Cumberland Mountains has been a local trend.

Totals between 1.87″ and 2.13″ have, for example, been forecast at the Wise gridpoint during the past two model runs. The latest ECMWF (European) Model is similar to the NAM. Models struggle with timing and amounts associated with convection, such that these graphics and model runs should only be used as a signal for heavy rainfall potential.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and or warnings that may be needed.

Full Screen Interactive Doppler Radar

Although a shower or downpour in a thunderstorm can not be ruled out during the next few days, the main threat for heavy to excessive rainfall will be most likely to return by the middle to end of this week (August 7-9) with a cold frontal boundary.

Greenland Blocking will continue to be a notable feature of Northern Hemisphere weather though the upcoming week to ten days, with general troughing across the eastern United States. Temperatures will be near to somewhat above average. Small chances for showers and thunderstorms early this week will increase during mid-late week when the potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall amounts will return to the mountain landscape.

A super-wet summer in the high country of the High Knob Massif has generated more than 22.00″ of rainfall during the June 1 to August 2 period of 2019 (22.60″ at Big Cherry Dam).

Wet Summer of 2019_High Knob Massif

Monthly Total Precipitation
Big Cherry Lake Dam
(Elevation 3139 feet)

January
6.14″

February
12.50″

March
5.93″

April
6.64″

May
6.75″

June
10.68″

July
10.77″

August 1-2
1.15″

Summer 2019
(Jun 1-Aug 2)
22.60″

*2019 Total: 60.56″ (M)
(January 1 to August 2 Period)

12-Month Total: 91.85″ (M)

(M): Some missing moisture in undercatch and frozen precipitation, with partial corrections applied for the 24.4 meter (80 feet) tall dam structure where rain gauges are located.