Weather Headlines

*Showers and local downpours, with possible thunder, is being monitored for Monday Night into Tuesday.

*Although heaviest rain amounts are currently expected to fall over the Deep South, the potential for downpours and at least localized thunderstorms should be closely monitored through Monday night into Tuesday.

Dense fog (orographic pilatus clouds) and air temperatures in the 30s (wind chills in 20s) will continue through Monday afternoon at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif. Caution is advised along Routes 619, 238, 237, 704, and others, at upper elevations.

*A transition from rain to upslope snow is being watched from Thursday Night into early Saturday as a developing coastal storm moves out into the Atlantic.

Former Caution Statement

Snow covered roads and hazardous travel conditions will continue into Sunday at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif. Caution is advised, especially for large drifts which are making some routes (e.g., 237) impassible to vehicles without chains and a high profile.

One of the heavier snowfall events of this rather timid snow season of 2019-20 produced 6″ to 8″ of fresh snow at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif into early morning hours of leap day (29 February 2020).

Waves of wind driven snow squalls dropped visibility to tens of feet at times from Friday afternoon through the overnight hours of Saturday.

Snowfall totals during the 26-29 February period reached 9.5″ in High Chaparral (3300 feet elevation) and around 12.0″ at the summit level of the massif where depths varied from near bare ground to feet in drifts.

This final events caps off a super-wet February with a general 13.00″ to 14.00″ of water equivalent precip at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif (not including, of course, added fog drip and rime drop from trees with 22 days in the clouds, and 14 days of rime formation, observed on Eagle Knob during the month).

February 2018 remains the wettest on record, with a general 14.00″ to 15.00″ of observed precipitation (this February had more snowfall, with 16″ to 22″ above 3000 feet).

Nearly 2000 vertical feet beneath the summit, Joe Carter measured 5″ of Saturday morning snow depth at the City of Norton Water Plant (10.47″ of February precipitation).

Looking Into Meteorological Spring

Although every month and season is different, the third consecutively WET February at least demands that the Northern Hemispheric pattern be reviewed.

The 2017-18 winter pattern (above) was followed by this spring pattern (below). In words, March & April turned colder and snowier than average in 2018.

The 2018-19 winter pattern (above) was followed by this spring pattern (below). March & April were collectively warmer than average in 2019 (below average snow).

Both May 2018 and May 2019 were much warmer than average (and also wetter than average).

While the pattern this winter is more like 2018-19 versus 2017-18 across the continental USA, especially the SE USA, global patterns were somewhat different.

The most striking difference is the very strong polar vortex this winter, with a couple of reflective events allowing wintry conditions to invade the region during late January and late February (following lag-time).

The polar vortex remains very strong and consolidated.

Final warming of the vortex associated with annual spring break-up will eventually occur, but until that actually happens persistence remains favored, with more of the same upcoming.

The development of showers and thunderstorms is therefore the next weather concern, with placement of main bands yet to be determined but certainly critical to the flood potential during this first week of March 2020.

Weather Headlines

ALERT For Snow Squalls

A region of bitterly cold air aloft moving across the mountain area Friday and Friday night will trigger snow squall development. Intense bursts of snow are expected to begin developing Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Embedded thundersnow will also become possible, along with visibility that may drop to near zero at times (for brief periods).

Hazardous Travel Conditions Are Expected To Develop, Especially Late Friday Into Friday Night

Although poor travel conditions may develop prior to late afternoon, the most widespread hazardous travel conditions are expected late Friday into Friday night and Saturday morning.

While the weather pattern has recently turned wintry, more like February should be climatologically, it is a transition back to unseasonable warmth and deep, tropical moisture transport that is most worrisome heading into early March.

**A heavy to excessive rainfall potential is increasing for next week as the pattern reverts back to that observed during much of February.

Former Alert

*ALERT For Accumulating Snow Beginning Wednesday Afternoon At Highest Elevations And Expanding To Include Middle & Lower Elevations Wednesday Night Into Thursday AM

*Locations along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide are expected to have the greatest impacts (as well as locations on windward slopes from Mount Rogers southwest to the Smokies).

**The potential for hazardous road conditions will be greatest after sunset on Wednesday night with upslope snow showers and snow squalls on WNW-NW flow and Great Lake moisture transport.

**The exception will be at highest elevations, where all snow is expected to fall at the summit level of the High Knob Massif. This could impact travel on upper elevation routes Wednesday afternoon (e.g., State Route 619, 238, 237), including State Route 160 across Black Mountain between Appalachia and Cumberland.

*Air turns bitterly cold during Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again, with a second surge, during Friday night into Saturday morning.

Low wind chills will accompany both surges of arctic air during Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday night into Saturday. Caution is advised for outdoor activities.

*A snow burst potential will exist, especially during the late Friday into early Saturday period, with whiteout snow squalls becoming possible.

Huge Weather Swings In Early March

The first week of Meteorological Spring will feature a huge swing in weather conditions, from arctic cold to unseasonably mild temperatures.

This occurs as a upper trough over the eastern USA reverts back to a ridge-trough-ridge pattern which dominated the month of February.

The result will be a swing from much below average to much above average temperatures during next week.

A heavy to excessive rainfall potential is being monitored for next week into the second week of March, and will be in part dependent upon the longevity of this pattern that features a ridge-trough-ridge regime (similar to observed during February 2018, 2019, and 2020).

Many ensemble members, including those of the favored 51-member European Model group (which I can not show on this site), are predicting a return of heavy to excessive rain amounts next week into the second week of March.

While placement and intensity of the heaviest bands of rain remain to be work out, the pattern (as observed in February 2018, 2019, 2020 should now be well known to anyone following these wet months in the SE USA).

The pattern in February 2020 has added to the legacy of February 2018 and February 2019, with more than a foot of total precipitation now observed at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif during each of these months.

Big Cherry Lake Dam

February 2018: 14.37″

February 2019: 12.50″

*1-24 February 2020: 12.09″

*12.46″ on Eagle Knob and 12.52″ in High Chaparral-Robinson Knob

Weather Headlines

*Evaporative cooling amid lingering dry air will generate a period of wet snow Monday morning, especially at mid-upper elevations. Accumulations of a dusting up to 1″ will be possible (locally more on highest peaks) before precipitation changes to rain.

*A cold rain with areas of fog, widespread and dense at upper elevations, will be observed from late Monday into Tuesday. This will mark another prolonged period of clouds obscuring upper elevations.

A total of 16 out of the first 20 days of February were in clouds at upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain, including 9 days with riming on High Knob.

*Another system will bring a chance of accumulating snow late Wednesday into Thursday, with a snow burst potential as air turns bitterly cold aloft.

Recent Weather

It seems the mountain region can not buy a “good” snow during this 2019-20 winter season, yet at least, as there remains plenty of time for a break in this snow drought.

A general 2″ to 3″ of snow covered the ground from the High Chaparral community to Eagle Knob into Thursday afternoon, with riming at highest elevations.

At lower elevations the official NWS snowfall total reached 1.1″ in Clintwood, with melting on grass and most of the accumulation on trees, leaves, and above ground objects such as the snowboard!

Although snow has been limited, the February 1-21 period produced impressive amounts of precipitation.

Clintwood 1 W: 8.17″

City of Norton WP: 8.89″

Jonesville 3.1 WSW: 9.30″

**Big Cherry Lake Dam: 11.25″

**Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif: 11.58″

**High Chaparral-Robinson Knob: 11.64″

**The third consecutive February with double digit precipitation amounts.

Looking Toward Meteorological Spring

A colder than normal pattern currently looks to dominate final days of February into early March and the beginning of Meteorological Spring.

This will bring at least a couple more opportunities for snow next week, with a large region of below average temperatures across much of the continental USA.

Unfortunately, toward the end of the first week of March the current ensemble mean is predicting a return to the warmer and wetter than average pattern observed during much of February.

That is a long way out into the model future, so there is plenty of time for changes to occur in this forecast.

ALERT For The Development Of Accumulating Snow Thursday

A wave of low pressure moving along a stalled boundary in the Deep South will spread snow across the Mountain Empire Thursday. This is expected to be a fast hitting and short-lived event, with the bulk of snow falling between 8:00 AM and 4:00 PM. Some upslope snow showers will continue into evening.

Update At 1:30 AM_Thursday_20 February 2020

ALERT For Hazardous Travel Conditions Developing Thursday Morning Into Early Afternoon

Cold temperatures, with widespread 20s in valley locations along and north of the High Knob Massif, will set the stage for hazardous conditions Thursday as a combination of initial evaporative cooling and snowfall rates work to cover roadways.

Snowfall Forecast

1″ to 3″ along and southeast of Pine Mountain across southwestern Virginia and extreme southeastern Kentucky

3″ to 5″ at higher elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountains, with locally higher amounts possible

Target snowfall: 2.5″ at 2500 feet (+/-) 1.0″ error potential, suggesting 1.5″ to 3.5″ of snow will be possible in the Norton-Wise area.

The error potential has been reduced by increasing confidence in a developing snowband impacting all locations along and southeast of Pine Mountain on upsloping, northerly low-level air flow.

Cold air will be interacting with moisture along the northwestern and northern side of this snow band to create lower snow density and higher snow-to-water ratios than farther south.

A sharp cut-off is expected to the northwest and southeast of a band of snow that will develop Thursday over the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. Heaviest snow amounts are currently expected at highest elevations along the Eastern Continental Divide (from Roan Mountain to the crestline of the Great Smokies).

Weather Headlines: 17 February 2020

*Strong SSE-SW winds develop tonight into Tuesday at middle to upper elevations (especially). Wind gusts to over 40 mph will be possible at highest elevations.

*Rain overspreads the mountain area Tuesday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible through Tuesday night, especially from favored upslope locations in the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain corridor southward.

*Rain may end as snow during the predawn-morning hours of Wednesday, with any accumulation likely restricted to elevations above 3000-3500 feet.

*A secondary wave of low pressure moving along a stalling boundary to the south will need to be closely monitored for potential development of a heavy, wet band of snow Thursday, with positioning of this band remaining uncertain. Stay tuned for updates.

The position and intensity of a potential snow band remains to be worked out, but many models (especially when including ensemble members) are beginning to see a potential that has now been shown on and off in the modeling for about a week.

Upcoming Pattern

Snow can not fall without cold temperatures, so at the least a colder regime is shown to rebuild in the mean during the short-term (following current warming).

Following a period of warming next week, the European ensemble mean is forecasting colder air to return in the first week of March and the beginning of Meteorological Spring. A trend to follow as the polar vortex remains at strong to near record-strong levels (one of the drivers of this mild winter of 2019-20 in the eastern USA).

Weather Headlines

An unseasonably cold air mass dominates the mountain region through Saturday. It then warms to seasonal cold by Sunday and to unseasonably mild once again by early to middle portions of next week.

The good news. Dry weather will finally give the soggy landscape a break until unseasonably warm air returns (of course). Well, mostly, as there will be a chance for some light showers Monday.

Reference Mid-Winter 2020_High Knob Massif for updated precipitation, with February 2020 marking the third consecutive one to reach double digit precipitation at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif.

Warmer air brings more rain. The potential for more significant rain exists, but it is too early to determine amounts. A trend toward colder air is currently being predicted for the final week of February.

Frigid Saturday Morning In Mountain Valleys

Conditions ideal for radiational cooling and the collection of cold air in mountain basins and valleys have been limited during the wet pattern of Winter 2019-20.

Air will be bone dry in the 900-800 MB zone, centered around 850 MB, which will favor the coldest conditions developing in upper elevation valleys.

Winds will remain light through Friday evening, allowing for nocturnal inversion formation. Speeds at 850 MB are then predicted to increase by Saturday AM, but deeper valleys and basins (in particular) should be able to remain decoupled from mean flow.

This should set the stage for the coldest minimums since 22 January when classic frost pockets in upper elevation basins dropped to within a few degrees of zero (a little below to a little above the goose egg). An exception was Burkes Garden, which was not able to fully decouple, with a minimum of only 9 degrees.

Update_7:00 AM_Thursday_13 February 2020

Headwater Creeks Will Continue Rising This Morning Into Mid-Day Thursday. Please Be Careful Around Swift Water, And Watch For Ponding Along Roads.

ALERT For Heavy Rain Developing Late Wednesday Into Thursday Morning

Due to recent flooding, and saturated soils, residents will need to remain alert for the potential of rapid water level rises as well as mud-rock slides. In addition, a gush of strong winds along the passing cold front will pose a tree damage danger (especially over super-saturated soils).

The downpour potential will be greater with this system than during Monday-Tuesday, raising concern for rapid water level rises. The ground is so saturated presently that a single downpour of significant intensity or duration could trigger flash flooding.

Updated_6:30 AM_12 February 2020

A surprising omission of Wise County (and Scott County) from the Flash Flood Watch by the MRX NWSFO is difficult to understand, so I reference them to their own research:

Precipitation And Flash Flood Climatology

What county during that study period had the most flash floods, the most flash flood deaths, and the only event to cost more than half a million dollars in damages within southwestern Virginia? Wise County!

Most recently, and most important to this current event, what county in southwestern Virginia has stations which have received around 9.00″ of total precipitation so far during the month of February? Wise County!

Wise, Scott, and Lee counties are all impacted by run-off from the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain corridor, the wettest long-term corridor in both Virginia and Kentucky.

Rainfall totals during Monday-Tuesday reached 1.42″ in Clintwood (6.58″ February) and 1.63″ at Big Cherry Lake Dam (8.86″ February) of the High Knob Massif. Streams are running swift and the ground is supersaturated, with areas of standing water common across the area.

ALERT For Strong SSE-SW Winds Developing Wednesday Afternoon Into The Overnight Hours Of Thursday AM

Strong SW winds will develop at upper elevations Wednesday afternoon, with downward mixing into middle elevations late Wednesday into the overnight hours of Thursday. Winds gusts of 50-60+ mph will be possible at upper elevations, with 30-50+ mph gusts at middle elevations and locally in the lower elevations.

Former Alerts And Statements

ALERT For Strong SSW-SW Winds At Middle-Upper Elevations Tonight Into Monday And Also Lower Elevations Of Northern Wise & Dickenson Counties

Strong SSW-SW winds will develop tonight into Monday as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of the next waves of heavy rainfall. Wind gusts of 40-60+ mph will become likely along higher mountain ridges.

Strong gusts will also develop within wake zones of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain corridor, into lower elevations of northern Wise and Dickenson counties, with breaking mountain waves.

Update_5:00 AM_A temperature jump from 31 to 45 degrees recently occurred at the official NWS station in Clintwood as strong wind gusts are mixing out the nocturnal valley temperature inversion on this Monday morning.

Recent Weather And Future Trend

Interactive Doppler Radar

Graupel has been observed with snow bursts Friday, indicating that they have a convective nature amid upward vertical motion in bitter air aloft.

The High Chaparral-Robinson Knob communities were in the core of heaviest rains with this recent flooding event, with 7.51″ of total rainfall (not including this snow)*.

*The only good news for them, water mostly runs downhill from there. Norton-Tacoma-Coeburn corridor flooding on the Wise County side, and Clinch River Valley flooding on the Scott County side, was unfortunately enhanced.

My snowfall forecast below includes the Saturday system. Amounts have already verified in many locations and it is possible that local totals could exceed what is predicted. As of 5:00 PM total snowfall had reached 1.7″ in Clintwood, with 3″ to 5″+ at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif.

Snowfall Forecast
(Friday-Saturday)

1″ to 4″ below 3000 feet

4″ to 8″ above 3000 feet

Target snowfall of 3.0″ (+/-) 1″ error potential for Norton-Wise, suggesting that 2″ to 4″ of snow will be possible. Greatest depths are expected on elevated surfaces and grass in the lower-middle elevations. Large snow depth variations are expected with blowing and local drifting at upper elevations.

In Wake Of Flooding

Extreme caution is advised around all streams as high velocity flows continue. While headwater creeks are dropping, main-stem rivers will remain elevated.

Reference my 013020 Forecast for stream links and a look at the Big Picture of this current turbulent weather pattern.

Southwestern Virginia Month-to-Date

Precipitation Totals
(1-9 February 2020)

*Robinson Knob: 7.83″

*Eagle Knob: 7.34″

*Big Cherry Lake Dam: 7.23″

Black Mountain Mesonet: 6.68″

Jonesville 3.1 WSW: 5.60″

City of Norton Water Plant: 5.47″

Clintwood 1 W: 5.16″

Saltville 1 N: 4.89″

Gate City 6.2 NNE: 4.79″

Tazewell 2.9 WNW: 4.69″

Lebanon 3.1 NNE: 4.44″

Abingdon 3 S: 4.41″

Nora 4 SSE: 4.33″

Richlands: 4.22″

Burkes Garden: 4.13″

Lebanon: 4.06″

Grundy: 3.96″

Wytheville: 3.61″

Blacksburg: 3.46″

Bluefield (WV): 3.08″

Roanoke: 2.63″

*Upper elevation locations in the High Knob Massif. Reference Mid-Winter 2020_High Knob Massif for a listing of monthly totals from Big Cherry Lake Dam.

I have not had time to even begin to go through the 1500+ photographs submitted to Chimein on WCYB’s weather page.

I selected a few amazing scenes from this flood event.

Little Stony Creek drains 16.4 square miles and heads near the High Chaparral-Robinson Knob communities of the High Knob Massif, where rainfall totals exceeded 7.00″ .

Water gushing out of the High Knob high country, and from the northeastern end of Black Mountain (Indian Mountain) caused flooding from Norton-Ramsey to Tacoma-Coeburn.

Impressive flooding along the North Fork of Clinch River which heads along the Wise-Lee county border in the High Knob Massif.

Big Stony Creek is often highlighted on this website, as a guide to steep creeks draining the high country, with Stock Creek heading in the high country southwest of Thunderstruck Knob of Powell Mountain (infamous for it’s carving of the great Natural Tunnel).

Although Big Cherry Dam holds back a huge amount of water, not including beaver dams upstream in high wetland valleys, rainfall was so heavy that the spillway overflow reached around 18″ .

While North Fork of Pound Reservoir is an unbelievable blessing to Pound, other streams such as Indian Creek and Bold Camp go into flood during these big events.

Not like 1957 and 1977, but close enough to bring back those horrid memories for residents around Haysi and Sandlick.

Terrible News For Saturated Landscape

If anyone doubts this, then merely review the Big Picture section I posted on 30 January at the link above. I knew then, based upon the combined composites of February 2018 and February 2019, that last week was going to be trouble and there is, unfortunately, no reason to doubt that this week will bring more of the same.

The really scary and frustrating aspect for myself, is that the 51-member ensemble MEAN of the European Model group has come into an even more dangerous alignment for next week, featuring a pattern that is repetitive with one wave after another of mostly rain. I expected this, as noted by what I wrote on 30 January, but at that time the period toward mid-February was showing some changes. That is no longer the case, with blocking high pressure now predicted to remain anchored over the eastern Pacific Ocean (just off the coast of North America).

Observe how similar the predicted 5-10 day anomalies (above) are to the composite mean of February 2018 + February 2019 (below). Rather amazing.

A setting like shown above is conducive to both Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moisture transport into the region next week, just like last week, with a positively tilted trough in a ridge-trough-ridge pattern.

Forecasters should remember that, like in February 2018 and February 2019, and most recently, of course, last week, a positively tilted 500 MB upper trough with westerly flow components tends to favor locations along and west of the Appalachians for heaviest rainfall amounts. The present negative tilt did not develop until after the bulk of heavy rainfall had shifted east into the Piedmont with rain changing to snow in the mountains on 7 February.

The flooding threat typically tends to be greatest along and west of the Cumberland Front, Cumberland Plateau, and Tennessee Valley with positively tilted troughs versus along the Blue Ridge with negatively tilted troughs.

Development of a negative tilt to the upper air (500-250 MB levels) trough this week was a little late to maximize rainfall along the Blue Ridge, and pre-flood forecasts that focused on the Blue Ridge were in error due to moisture and upslope forcing that were only partially in sync. Rainfall amounts were substantial along the Blue Ridge, especially within SW North Carolina where both westerly and easterly component flows are maximized, but notably less farther northeast along the mountain chain.

Despite cold air and snow at the moment, the pattern becomes unseasonably warm and moist once again next week to add support for more heavy-excessive rainfall.

The first wave producing significant rainfall Monday into early Tuesday (10-11 February) will also have snow melt from upper elevations to increase run-off into streams.

This will be followed by more worrisome waves during the middle to end of next week.

The Bottom Line: Heavy to excessive rainfall is expected next week, with the potential for serious, life-threatening flooding. Although it remains too soon to know exactly what locations will be impacted, the pattern will again favor locations along and west of the Appalachians.

Note: I had to begin the process of evacuating my house on 6 February. I was lucky and water ended up not entering the house, but I understand from personal experiences like this how scary it is for many folks who live near mountain streams. It is heart-breaking for those who must suffer through flooding, and beyond imagination for those losing loved ones to flooding. Personal property can be repaired or replaced. Precious lives can not.