My Forecast For Today ( April 14-16 )

Overnight Into Thursday Morning

High clouds.  Light winds becoming variable at 5-15 mph along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with low-mid 30s in colder mountain valleys verses mid 40s to lower 50s on exposed middle to upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.

Thursday Afternoon

Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for scattered rain showers.  Light ENE-ESE winds generally less than 10 mph.  Mild with temperatures varying from the 50s at the upper elevations to the 60s to around 70 degrees in middle-lower elevations.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Any scattered evening showers giving way to partly to mostly clear skies.  SE-SSE winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temperatures mostly in the 40s ( a few 30s possible in valleys with calm winds into the morning ).

Friday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Mild.  Winds ESE-SE 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s in middle to lower elevations.

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Frost in mountain valleys.  Light ESE-SSE winds developing along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temperatures varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to the 40s along exposed mid to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

Weather Discussion ( April 12-15 )

The return of beautiful blue skies Tuesday afternoon set the stage for a frosty cold night, especially in mountain valleys, with widespread 20s observed by Wednesday morning.

A MIN of 27 degrees was recorded in Clintwood with low-mid 20s felt amid colder valleys of the Norton to Coeburn area and in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif-Burkes Garden corridor.

An increase in high altitude clouds by afternoon hours of Wednesday was accompanied, for a change, by relatively light winds ( a welcomed change amid this windy spring ).

Beautiful blooms of Trilliums are increasing but not yet at peak.

Temperatures as of 1:00 AM on Thursday had dropped into the upper 30s in Clintwood, heading toward a morning with low-mid 30s being more common in valleys ( verses the 20s observed on Wednesday AM ).  By contrast, air temps were still in the 50s on exposed middle elevation ridges-plateaus like at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise ( 1 AM April 14 ).

If you receive any rainfall today then consider yourself lucky, as models are clearly indicating that it will be localized and scattered in nature.

Perhaps the best chances will be from the High Knob Massif southwest & west by later today into early Thursday evening.

A much drier than average spring pattern continues, which for now is good news for race fans heading to, or already at, Bristol to enjoy all the activities through coming days.

After today air will dry out once again with a notable drop in low-level dewpoints.  This will again set the stage for mountain valley frost to become widespread Friday Night into Saturday morning.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( April 12-14 )

A hard freeze will occur in mountain valleys during Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning, with frost formation also possible in other places within Wise, Scott, Lee, Dickenson, Russell & Tazewell counties.

Heavy frost will again be likely in colder mountain valleys during Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning ( no frost is expected at exposed middle-upper elevations, especially on ridges-plateaus ).

Overnight Into Tuesday Morning

Showers developing.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting N into morning and decreasing to 5-15 mph.  Turning cooler into morning with readings dropping into the 40s, except 30s at highest elevations.

Tuesday Afternoon

Becoming sunny ( deep blue skies ) and chilly.  N-NNE winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps varying from 40 to 45 at upper elevations to the mid-upper 50s ( milder at lower elevations in the Clinch, Powell, and Holston river valleys ).

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Clear.  Heavy frost formation in mountain valleys.  Light northerly winds shifting SE-S along upper elevation ridges into morning at 5-10 mph.  Temperatures varying from 20 to 25 degrees in colder mountain valleys to the lower-mid 30s ( mildest along middle elevation ridges-plateaus ).

Wednesday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Light winds becoming ENE-NNE.  Milder.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s at the highest elevations to the middle-upper 60s.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Partly to mostly clear.  Winds ESE-SE at 5-15 mph along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with 20s in colder mountain valleys verses upper 30s to middle 40s along exposed ridges.

Weather Discussion ( April 11-14 )

Spring 2016 has been lacking in rain, but not in wind.  This has been a very windy spring season, with some relief from these strong winds finally expected to develop through mid week as high pressure builds over the Appalachians.

Any nature photographer is especially aware of wind, since out of the TOP 10 problems dealt with in taking high resolution shots the wind will generate ( directly or indirectly ) most of the problems.

The Mayapple above is newly emerged, with a flower bud that is still mostly visible above the leaves.  This will change in coming days as these leaves continue to unfurl and rise above the bud.

Eventually a lack of rainfall will become a concern if precip totals do not begin increasing in coming weeks.  Right now, with low evaporation rates and still cold nights, it is not a major problem ( outside of grass for hay that needs rain ).

A dry signal in the models is that higher totals have consistently been predicted a few days in advance of systems, to only decrease as the system in question gets closer in time to becoming reality.  An exception, being the recent snowfall which was as productive as expected ( especially across upper elevations ).

In a typical spring, wind like this would act to enhance the orographic forcing and make rainfall more productive.  So when this does not happen within favored locations like the High Knob Landform corridor it is an important signal that should not be overlooked ( since past climatology dictates that this can be a dryness or drought precursor ).

While another substantial cold front, with another notable temperature gradient, is pushing into the mountains only a relatively scrawny line of showers has formed.

Dryness this spring being directly connected to excessive wetness over the lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South as atmospheric compensation acts to force subsidence aloft over this region as air migrates outward away from deep convection to the southwest and south of the southern Appalachians.

Deep blue skies will return today following this frontal passage as high pressure begins to take control.  This will lead into a mid-late week period featuring development of easterly flow as the High shifts east and a wedge of cooler air ( at least by day ) sets up along and east of the Blue Ridge ( low dewpoint air and less clouds will act to generate cold nights along the western side of the Appalachians ).

While all locations will be cold Tuesday Night into Wednesday AM, mountain valleys will be coldest and will become the focus for the coldest air during nights throughout the remainder of this week.

Have a great Tuesday.

My Forecast For Today ( April 10-11 )

Unseasonably Cold Temperatures Will Continue Into Sunday Morning

Minimum temperatures will drop into the 10s to lower 20s in colder locations into Sunday morning ( i.e., in mountain valleys and along the highest mountain ridges above 3300 feet ).

ALERT For Strong SW Winds Developing Along Middle To Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges-Plateaus During Sunday Night Into Monday

An increasing pressure gradient will develop strong ( ROARING ) winds at mid-upper elevations along the Cumberland Mountains from late Sunday into Monday.  Mixing of roaring winds will also be possible in lower elevations northeast of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide via enhanced mixing and waves on SW flow ( e.g., Pound-Clintwood area ).  Caution is advised.  

Overnight Into Sunday Morning

Mostly clear ( increasing high clouds toward morning ).  Unseasonably cold.  Calm winds in valleys.  NW-N winds shifting SSE-SW at 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus into morning.  Temperatures varying from the 10s to lower 20s in colder valleys, and along highest ridges, to mid-upper 20s in milder sites.

Sunday Afternoon

Hazy sunshine ( mid-high clouds ).  Milder.  SSE-SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 40s-low 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to mid 60s ( mildest in downslope locations of the Russell-Levisa Fork basins ).

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers.  Strong winds developing across middle-upper elevation ridges.  Winds SSW to SW 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SW 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40+ mph, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures widespread in the 40s.  Wind chills in the 30s along upper elevation ridges.

Monday Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 50s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 60s to middle 70s ( warmest at lower elevations in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork basins ).

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Rain developing.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting N into morning and decreasing to 5-15 mph.  Mild evening temperatures in the 50s-60s turning cooler into morning with readings dropping into the 40s, except 30s at highest elevations.

Weather Discussion ( April 8-11 )

It is always interesting when spring meets winter amid the mountains, with this recent system not disappointing as a few periods of moderate-heavy rain-sleet-snow were even spiced with lightning-thunder late Friday into the early hours of Saturday.

My friends Joe & Darlene Fields had 2″ of snow depth in the High Chaparral community of the High Knob Massif Friday Night into Saturday AM ( around 2.5 to 3.0″ of total fall ).

High Chaparral sits at an elevation of 3300 feet, or around 900 vertical feet lower than the crest of the High Knob Massif.

Total snowfall was a little greater than snow depth as some melting and enhanced settlement occurred on the unfrozen ground of April.

Enough snow accumulated to maintain a solid snow cover on upper northern slopes throughout the day of April 9, with snow melting off roads but continuing to cover heads of basins in the High Knob Lake, Big Cherry Lake & Norton Reservoirs at sunset.

Snow amounts tapered to 1″ or less below 3000 feet, with Wayne & Genevie Riner reporting 0.3″ at Nora 4 SSE on the Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge.  A total of 0.1″ fell in Clintwood with sticking during a thunder-snow-sleet downpour.

These shots were taken just before the moderate-heavy late PM and evening activity began during April 8.

While more chilly shots, and frost, will be likely in coming weeks, perhaps this may be the coldest until later this year when the 2016-17 cold season begins.  Perhaps.

Temperatures dropped below zero ( 0 degrees Fahrenheit ) at upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain amid gusts during Friday Night into Saturday Morning.  True winter air!

To put this into better perspective, this was the coldest air in the entire Northern Hemisphere ( relative to average ) for this time of year ( by far the coldest, as illustrated below by anomalies ).

Focus now shifts to warm air transport and a increasing pressure gradient that will crank up winds yet again by Sunday Night into Monday ( beginning at upper-middle elevations and mixing downward across the entire area over time during this period ).

The 850 MB wind field becomes very strong along & west of the mountains tonight into Monday, with 50-60 kt SW wind speeds developing from the Cumberland range west-north. This will generate a favorable settings for ROARING winds within the favored SW Upslope-Downslope flow corridor of the High Knob Landform and downstream locations ( where air sinks, for example, into the Russell Fork Basin ).

Moisture increases aloft with high clouds Sunday and eventually a lowering of cloud bases by later Monday.  Showers of rain, not snow, will become likely by late Monday into Tuesday ( during a windy period ).

Have a great Sunday.

My Forecast For Today ( April 8 )

ALERT For Unseasonably Cold Temperatures And Wind Chills Into Saturday – Accumulating Snow Will Also Be Possible Tonight Into Saturday Morning ( Especially Within Middle-Upper Elevations )

A prolonged period of cold conditions is expected from tonight into this weekend.  Scattered hit-miss rain & snow showers will be possible today, with the best chance for more widespread snow by tonight into Saturday morning.  A general 1-3″ of snow is possible at upper elevations, above 3000 feet, with 1″ or less in middle elevations below 3000 feet ( little to no snow accumulation is expected at elevations below 1500-2000 feet ).

Overnight Into This Morning

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Chance for rain or snow showers.  Turning colder.  W-NW winds 5-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s, with 20s above 3200 feet in elevation.  Wind chills in the 10s & 20s ( coldest at the highest elevations ).

This Afternoon

Partly cloudy with increasing clouds into late afternoon.  Rain & snow showers developing.  W-SW winds 5-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 30s in upper elevations to the 40s to middle 50s ( warmest in the downslope locations from Pound-Grundy ).  Wind chills in the 20s & 30s at elevations above 2500 feet.

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Rain & snow, changing to snow in most locations late.  A period of moderate-heavy snow possible above 3000 feet.  WNW-NW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid to upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temps dropping into mid-upper 10s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 20s to lower 30s ( warmest at low elevations ).  Wind chills from 10s to around 20 degrees, except 0 to 10 degrees along high mountain crest lines.

Weather Discussion ( April 7-8 )

A chilly and windy Thursday graced the mountain landscape in wake of needed overnight rains.

Superintendent Andrew Greear and veteran technician Joe Carter reported 0.40″ of rainfall at the City of Norton Water Plant up to 9:00 AM on Thursday.

Superintendent Gary Hampton reported 0.63″ of rainfall at both the Big Stone Gap Water Plant and Big Cherry Lake Dam into the morning hours of Thursday.

A total of 0.18″ fell in Clintwood up to 7:00 AM on Thursday, with 0.36″ reported by Wayne & Genevie Riner at Nora 4 SSE.

Gusty showers mixed with snow in middle elevations, as mostly all snow fell at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif, during late afternoon-early evening on Thursday.

A temperatures of 41 degrees was observed at the Norton Water Plant at 6:30 PM as the activity began to develop.

The activity late Thursday afternoon formed beneath cold air aloft with puffy to towering cumulus clouds observed over Norton-Wise and Pound-Clintwood.

Focus now shifts to the next wave and cold front that will cause rain-snow showers to develop in earnest by late today into tonight.  Depending upon how this activity sets up, via the best moisture stream, a period of moderate-heavy snow will become possible across upper elevations in portions of the Mountain Empire ( with several inches of sticking snow at highest elevations into Saturday morning ).

The high resolution NAM 4 KM Model has a bulls-eye centered over the eastern West Virginia highlands, with more than 6″ ( locally up to 10″+ ) above 3000 feet in elevation.  As past climatology shows, and is well documented locally, the model tends to under-estimate snowfall in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif.

At this time, it appears that any snow accumulations below 3000 feet will be limited to 1″ or less, with little to no sticking snow at elevations below 1500-2000 feet.

The coldest air with this system will be felt Friday Night into Saturday and Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.

MIN temperatures will drop into the 10s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif, with 20s widespread across most of the middle to lower elevations within the mountains & northeastern sections of the Great Valley ( from the TRI area northeastwards ).

Keep Warm On This TGIF.

My Forecast For Today ( April 7 )

A prolonged period of cold conditions is expected from Thursday night into this weekend.  Rain and snow showers will be possible Thursday night into Friday, with the best chance for snow by late Friday into Saturday AM.  The potential for several inches of snow will exist in upper elevations, especially above 3300 feet, with a general decrease in sticking as elevation decreases below 3000 to 3300 feet ( a little sticking will be possible to around 1500-2000 feet, on the upslope side of the mountains, by Saturday AM ).

Late Evening Into This Morning

Rain with a chance for thunder.  Locally heavy rainfall.  A break in rain by the predawn-sunrise period.  Winds SSW-W at 10 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, decreasing some toward morning.  Temperatures dropping into the 40s, with 30s at highest elevations.  Wind chills in the 20s & 30s.

Mid-Morning Through This Afternoon

Showers redeveloping.  SW-W winds 10-25 mph, with  higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.  Chilly.  Temperatures varying from 30s at upper elevations to the 40s to lower 50s ( milder south toward the Tri-Cities ).  Becoming partly cloudy by mid-late afternoon or early evening.  Wind chill factors in the 30s and 40s ( coldest at highest elevations ).

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Chance for rain or snow showers.  Turning colder.  WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s, with 20s above 3200 feet in elevation.  Wind chills in the 10s & 20s ( coldest at highest elevations ).

Weather Discussion ( April 6-7 )

Increasing clouds & gusty conditions Wednesday developed in wake of a frosty cold morning in mountain valleys.  A 41 degree temperature spread was observed in Clintwood from  24 degrees in the morning to 65 degrees in the afternoon.

A more “narrow” temperature spread was observed along exposed mountain ridges and plateaus, with readings varying from the 30s into the 50s ( only upper 40s to about 50 degrees at the summit level of the High Knob Massif ).

The focus tonight is on needed rain, with brief downpours in places, that is moving across the mountains ahead of the first of two cold fronts ( with initially dry air in place, some evaporation occurred to make totals at the ground less than estimated by Doppler radar up to midnight ).

It is a wind driven, cold rain along high mountain crest lines with recent gusts between 40-50 mph ( driving wind chills into 20s ).

A trough visible in the upper air over the eastern USA will deepen during the next couple of days, with anomalously cold air for this time of year spilling south over the region.

Cold air transport reaches its maximum Friday Night into Saturday, with a NW flow pattern that will also help carry enough moisture south from open Great Lake waters to support some spring snowfall.

Diffluence ( upper air divergence ) ahead of an approaching vorticity maximum diving toward the base of the upper air trough will begin to generate lower elevation rain showers and upper elevation snow showers during Friday afternoon, with increasing snow showers into Friday Night when snow levels will begin dropping toward the middle elevations.

At the current time, best accumulations are expected above 3300 feet in elevation with decreased sticking as elevation decreases below this level.  There will be a period of time ( generally from midnight-sunrise Saturday ) when snow levels could reach down into the 1500-2000 foot zone for locations along the upslope side of the Cumberland Mountains ( with respect to NW flow ).  Snow amounts are expected to be limited for most places by duration of these best conditions for snowfall ( best sticking being on above ground objects, grass, leaves, and northern slopes outside of the highest elevations ).  Please stay tuned for updates.

The coldest air is expected along mountains ridges into Saturday morning, with coldest air in mountain valleys likely into Sunday morning.  Prolonged below freezing conditions are expected in all locations, with anomalously cold wind chills across higher terrain locations during Friday night into Saturday.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( April 6 )

A Hard Freeze Will Occur Overnight Into This Morning In Mountain Valleys.  Increasing Winds Along Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges Will Mix Downward Onto Middle Elevation Ridges-Plateaus Toward Morning With Little To No Frost Expected

A wintry cold period is expected from Thursday Night into this weekend, with potential for snow accumulation along the upslope side of the mountains with respect to NW-N air flow.  Significant snow accumulations will be possible at the highest elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Unseasonably cold.  A large vertical temperature spread developing between frosty valleys and milder but windy middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  ESE-SSE winds increasing into the overnight-morning to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures in the 30s, or rising into the 30s following any evening drops, along exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temps falling through the 20s within mountain valleys.  Wind chills in the 20s on upper elevation ridges.

This Afternoon

Increasing clouds.  Milder & windy.  Chance of a shower by late.  SSE-SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SSW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from 40s to around 50 degrees in upper elevations to the middle 50s to low-mid 60s ( 55-60 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Rain with a chance for thunder.  Locally heavy rainfall.  Winds SSW-W at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, decreasing some toward morning.  Temperatures dropping into the 40s, with 30s at highest elevations into morning.

Weather Discussion ( April 5-6 )

A unseasonably cold air mass Tuesday featured morning MINS that varied from around 20 degrees at the summit level of the High Knob Massif to around 30 degrees amid valleys in lower elevations to the north ( a little milder conditions were reported south toward the Tri-Cities ).

A gorgeous afternoon featured beautifully blue, cloud-free skies with temperatures reaching low-mid 40s in Norton-Wise and the upper 40s in Clintwood.

The setting tonight features temperatures falling through the 20s in colder mountain valleys ( 28 degrees at Clintwood 1 W as of Midnight ) as highest ridges become increasingly windy with near steady to rising temperatures.

An increasing vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and milder ridges will develop overnight into this morning.  The off-setting factor along upper elevation ridges being an increase in wind chill factors ( making it feel like 20s or colder in gusts ).

Temperatures will rise dramatically into today as southerly winds increase and mix downward across the entire area, with downslope locations in the Russell-Levisa Fork basins likely rising into the 60s ( marking 40+ degree temperature rises between this morning and this afternoon ).

Rain chances will increase dramatically by late today into tonight as the next weather system approaches.  A chance for lightning-thunder and locally heavy rainfall will exist during the Wednesday Night-Thursday AM period.

Precipitation totals could top 1.00″, with the final period of this forecast cycle, from Thursday Night into Friday Night, featuring increasingly cold air and the chance for snow at higher elevations ( with snow levels dropping over time into middle elevations by late Friday Night into Saturday Morning ).

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( April 5 )

ALERT For Widespread Freezing Conditions Overnight Into Tuesday Morning With Unseasonably Cold Wind Chills At Mid-Upper Elevations – Another Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys Tuesday Night-Wednesday AM

*Low relative humidity this afternoon will increase the risk of fires ( although winds will be diminishing ).  While it is against the law to burn outdoors until after 4 PM in the state of Virginia, it would be best NOT to burn anything until significant precipitation falls across the region.

A prolonged period of wintry cold, with an accumulating snow potential, is being monitored for late week into this weekend.  Significant snow will be possible in upper elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Cloudy.  Turning unseasonably cold.  Chance for a few flurries ( mainly along the upslope side of the mountains ).  N winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Wind N at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures dropping into mid-upper 10s at the highest elevations, with widespread 20s at middle-lower elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( milder in lower elevations to the south toward the Tri-Cities ).  Winds chills dropping into the single digits and 10s, with sub-zero chill factors in gusts on highest ridges.

This Afternoon

Sunny.  Deep blue skies & unseasonably cold.  N-NE winds diminishing to 10 mph or less.  Temperatures varying from the 30s in upper elevations to the 40s in low-mid elevations  ( mid-upper 40s in Norton-Wise ) along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( milder 50s south & southwest amid lower elevations of the Powell, Clinch, Holston river valleys toward the Tri-Cities ).

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Unseasonably cold.  A large vertical temperature spread developing between frosty valleys and milder but windy middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  ESE-SSE winds increasing into the overnight-morning to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures in the 30s, or rising into the 30s following any evening drops, along exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temps falling through the 20s within mountain valleys.  Wind chills in the 20s on upper elevation ridges.

Weather Discussion ( April 2-5 )

A very active, but continued drier than normal, weather pattern will be turning increasingly wintry heading into late week and the upcoming weekend.

Wind gusts during the early weekend reached 40-50+ mph with up to 17% of Wise County ( on the AEP Network ) out of electricity at one point due to damaging gusts.  A continuation of a very windy pattern from March, but now with an increasingly cold turn.

The above graphic is a rough generalization of snow that fell during the great April 2-5 snowstorm in 1987.  Snow depths reached 22″ to 24″ in Clintwood ( 33.8″ of total fall measured at Clintwood 1 W ), with 36″ in the City of Norton at the Norton Water Plant ( measured by Gary Hampton ).

A mean snow depth of 4 feet was reported by electrical engineer Carl Henderson, at the WSBN-TV PBS transmitter station atop the Eagle Knob of the High Knob Massif ( Blue Ridge Public Television ).  Snow drifts of 5-10 feet occurred in exposed locations.  Total snow fall was more than 3-4 feet in the Norton to High Knob Massif area since significant settlement and some sub-snow surface melting occurred during this prolonged upslope event.

Anyone remembering the 1987 snow event, or many other April falls of snow, will not doubt that snow can fall amid the mountains during this time of year.

With 28 years of records, in fact, the mean April snowfall atop the High Knob Massif has been around 7″ with only 4 out of 28 April’s not having measurable snow ( meaning it is more common to have than not to have snow accumulate during April atop the massif ).

The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles are showing that the DAY 3-7 forecast period, from Thursday through this weekend, is looking particularly cold with true winter conditions developing beneath an anomalously deep eastern USA upper air trough ( late season winter cold ).

The MEAN 850 MB temperature during the DAY 3-7 period has the 0 degrees Celsius ( 32 F ) line south across the Great Smokies in the southern Appalachians, with around -2 C or upper 20s ( Fahrenheit ) air over the High Knob Massif area  ( that is the MEAN for the DAY 3-7 period ).  In other words, this is air that would be more typical of mean temperatures observed during the winter ( December-February ).

Higher sun angles at this time of year will tend to generate higher day-time temperatures, of course, with an air mass like this verses the low sun angle winter months; however, the fact remains that this will be MUCH below average for April and be cold enough to easily support snow at higher elevations.

It is too soon to yet determine actual snowfall totals, but the European Model has consistently been heavier across the southern Appalachians than the GFS Model ( above ).

Meanwhile, the focus is on unseasonably cold air and the need for you to protect any tender young plants that you may have already put out ( hopefully none to few ).  Most native plants, such as our ephemeral wildflowers, will be able to with-stand the cold as MANY past events like the April 1987 period have been factored into their DNA.

An unseasonably cold Tuesday ( today ) will naturally lead into another hard freeze in mountain valleys tonight, with temperatures falling through the 20s ( coldest valleys could dip into the 10s if mixing from increasing winds above does not disrupt nocturnal temperature inversion formation ).

Meanwhile, following any evening drop, temperatures will tend to rise into the overnight-morning of Wednesday as winds veer ESE-SW and increase in speed along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges ( enhancing a vertical temperature spread between valleys and ridges ).

Showers, with a chance for thunderstorms, develop late Wednesday into Thursday in advance of the big chill down that begins late Thursday into Friday AM.

Rainfall remains needed, following a much drier than normal pattern during the past 5 weeks.  Surges of low dewpoint air, such as observed today ( Tuesday ), tend to enhance the danger of fires.  So please do not burn.

Have a great Tuesday. 

My Forecast For This Weekend

ALERT For Widespread Freezing Conditions Developing Saturday Night Into Sunday AM With Unseasonably Cold Wind Chill Factors On Exposed Middle-Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges

*A Freeze Will Also Be Possible In Mountain Valleys That Have Calm Winds During Sunday Night-Monday AM As Strong SW Winds Develop Across Mid-Upper Elevation Ridges ( Caution Advised For Strong SW Winds At High Elevations, Mainly Above 3000 feet Into Monday AM ).

Overnight Into Saturday Morning

 Mostly cloudy.  A chance for sprinkles, with a period of light rain & showers to the southeast toward the TN-NC border.  Turning colder.  Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temps dropping into lower 30s at the High Knob Massif summit level by morning, with 40s at middle-lower elevations below 2700 feet.

Saturday Afternoon

Partly sunny.  A period of mostly cloudy skies possible.  Windy.  Winds WSW-W at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Chilly with temperatures varying from upper 30s to low 40s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the lower-middle 50s ( milder south toward the Tri-Cities and locally in downslope locations of the Russell-Levisa Fork basins ).  Wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s along upper elevation mountain ridges.

*A period of enhanced winds along and behind a cold front will occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  Gusts of 30-50 mph will be possible during this time.  Caution Is Advised.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A period of clouds with a chance for a valley sprinkle or light rain shower and upper elevation flurry or light snow shower.  Turning colder with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear by morning.  Winds becoming NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures dropping into the upper 10s to low 20s at highest elevations to the middle-upper 20s to around 30 degrees.  Wind chills in the single digits & 10s along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Wind chills in the upper 10s & 20s on middle elevation ridges.

Sunday Afternoon

Sunny & cold for the season.  Winds becoming SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s-lower 40s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 40s to middle 50s.  Unseasonably cold wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s at highest elevations.

*Updated At 12:15 AM Monday

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Mostly clear.  A large vertical temperature difference developing between mountain valleys with calm winds and middle-upper elevation mountain ridges with strong winds.  SSW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, developing into the overnight-morning on mid-upper elevation ridges, especially at elevations above 2500-2700 feet.

Temperatures varying from 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to readings in the 40s, or rising into the 40s, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

The strongest SW winds are expected to be mainly above 2500 to 2700 feet overnight into Monday morning, with 30-40+ mph gusts being possible along mountain ridges.  Wind speeds will increase with mixing at middle-lower elevations, below 2700 feet, into the day ahead of and along an approaching cold front.

 *Another widespread, hard freeze is expected into Tuesday Morning amid another period with very cold wind chills for this time of year ( especially at middle to upper elevations ).

A major, winter-like blast of cold air with a snowfall potential is looking likely by late this week into next weekend.  Stay tuned for details.

Weather Discussion – Colder Pattern

Although most hate to hear it, a winter-like jet stream pattern is taking shape across North America with renewal of western USA ridging-eastern USA troughing in the upper air flow regime.

While up-down temperature variations will continue, it is clear that the pattern heading through next week and well into April is looking to be colder than average with even a few chances for snow in the mountains ( an anomalous for this time of year pattern that, as past climatology shows, may eventually generate some significant snowfall – at higher elevations, especially, of course ).

This was the pattern that I expected for March; however, that got side-tracked by a number of factors including development of an anomalous sub-tropical cut-off low and blocking Atlantic ridge as well as continued pulses of wave activity over the Arctic following an anomalously strong Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.

A record dry to one of the driest March’s ( depending upon the location ) on record got the pollen season off to an early start and has early spring flowering species running some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule.  Repeated bouts of significant cold upcoming will, no doubt, be detrimental to some of these early blooming species.

Many native ephemeral wildflower species, like this lovely Rue-anemone above, will not be hurt and are use to cold as well as being covered up by spring falls of snow.

The pattern shown at the start of April, with ridging over both coasts of the USA ( above ) and cold air in the middle diving south and southeast ( below ) is forecast to become more intense with expansive troughing across the eastern USA during the next 10 days or more.

This is shown well by the 51-Member European Ensemble group where the MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies become stronger and more intense from Days 1-5 into Days 6-10.

This is very impressive, especially for a 51-Member MEAN, with troughing below making any winter period proud.  At this time of year the cold air will be late season, modified, but still very significant ( especially with respect to early spring warmth observed by day during March ).

A rough idea of how cold it will get, in the MEAN, is given by looking at the 51-Member Ensemble group’s 850 MB temps and their departures from normal ( in colors ).

During the next 10 days the 32 degree ( 0 degree Celsius ) line at 850 MB hovers over, or near, southwestern Virginia with mean temperature departures being 10 degrees ( F ) or more below average ( in the MEAN ).

In reality, some members of the 51-Ensemble group are much colder and some warmer than others, with the above being the MEAN of all averaged together during each 5-day period.  Thus, one has to also figure that with intervals of warm air advection some of the cold spells will be well below the mean of departures shown.

The Bottom Line – An early start to spring in March is going to be stopped during the next 1-2 weeks as mean temperatures turn much below average.

While up-down temperature variations, both day-to-night and between days, are expected to continue the forecast pattern features colder than average temps and the potential for certain cold surges to be very significant ( with even some snow in the mountains ).

Stay tuned for updates as daily weather variations are worked out as time passes.

Have a great Weekend.

My Forecast For Today ( April 1 )

ALERT For Strong Winds ( And Wind Driven Rain ) Continues Overnight Along Mountain Ridges Above 2700 Feet ( Gusts Of 30-40+ MPH ).  Locally Strong Gusts Will Be Possible At Lower-Middle Elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Showers & thunderstorms.  Some storms could be strong.  Moderate to heavy rainfall at times.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges & plateaus.  Unseasonably mild.  Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Mid-Morning Through This Afternoon

Showers & storms ending.  Becoming partly sunny.  Winds becoming WSW-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Mild but turning cooler toward sunset.  MAX temperatures from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

 Increasing clouds.  A chance for rain developing.  Turning colder.  Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temps dropping into lower 30s at the High Knob Massif summit level by morning, with 40s at middle-lower elevations below 2700-3000 feet.

*There is a small chance that rain could mix with or turn to snow at the summit level of the High Knob Massif overnight-Saturday morning as air turns colder.  Stay tuned for updates.

Weather Discussion ( March 31-April 1 )

A ROARING close to the month of March, with strong S-SW wind gusts of 40-50+ mph being common during Thursday, also featured a band of much needed evening showers & storms finally arriving to wet the mountain landscape.

Thursday PM maximums again varied significantly from 50s to mid-upper 60s in Norton-Wise and Sandy Ridge upward into the High Knob Massif verses middle 70s to the northeast amid strong downslope flow, into the Russell Fork basin, from Pound-Haysi.

Nice mountain wave clouds developed through the day along the High Knob Massif, with a break before evening showers-storms revealing singular and stacked lenticular wave forms.

March looks to have ended as the driest on record in the City of Norton, with 1.62 ( the preliminary tally ) of total precipitation being well below the previous driest of 2.10″ observed during March 2003.

March ended as the 4th driest on record in Clintwood, with 1.54″ of total precipitation being measured.

*National Weather Service sites ended the recording period during the morning ( 7:00 AM in Clintwood and 9:00 AM in the City of Norton ).

I have continued my alert for strong SW winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges overnight where wind driven rain will also fall moderate-heavy at times.

*Up to 0.60″ to 0.75″ of rain has fallen, as of 1:30 AM Friday, in the Big Cherry Lake basin of the High Knob Massif with the first wave of rainfall.  A second wave will arrive during the next hour, with a final chance for local downpours along-ahead of a cold front moving across Kentucky into the morning.

As the first wave of rain moves east a second wave will be lifting northeast out of Tennessee along the Cumberland Mountains during the mid-late overnight period.

The forecast setting heading into tonight and Saturday morning remains a little uncertain, with the NAM Model group developing another significant wave of rainfall over the area as colder air arrives from the northwest.

The NAM forecast’s a significant wave of rainfall to move northeast along the Cumberland Plateau and Cumberland Mountains tonight into Saturday morning ( note the 12-hour change in amounts between 8 PM and 8 AM ).

Stay tuned for updates on this potential.

For those heading to the NASCAR Race in Martinsville it is looking like a windy, cooler Saturday as showers give way to drier conditions into the afternoon.

Sunday should be nice, but seasonally chilly.

Have a great TGIF.

My Forecast For Today ( March 31 )

ALERT For Strong SSE to SSW Winds Overnight Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations

A strong pressure gradient will drive strong winds across the mountains through today.  Waves of showers, with lightning-thunder will impact the area into Friday.  The strongest wave is currently looking to arrive by late Thursday night into the early overnight hours of Friday, with possible strong to locally severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall ( especially along-west of the Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau ).

Overnight Into This Morning

Increasing clouds.  Windy across mid-upper elevations.    SSE-S winds 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).

This Afternoon

A chance for showers, with possible thunder and brief downpours.  Windy.  SSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SSW-SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to 60s in Norton-Wise ( around 70 degrees amid downslope sites of the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely.  Some storms could be strong to locally severe.  Local downpours.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Showers, with possible thunder, will remain likely Friday ahead and along a strong cold front.  Much colder air will pour into the mountains overnight Friday into Saturday morning with temps dropping into the 30s to lower 40s on WNW-NW winds along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

Weather Discussion ( March 30-31 )

A frosty cold morning greeted mountain valleys on Thursday with widespread MINS in the 20s to low 30s.

The official MIN reached 28 degrees in Clintwood, with low-mid 20s in some of the mid-upper elevation mountain valleys in the High Knob Massif area.  Huge 45-50 degrees temperature rises followed into the afternoon as increasingly strong, gusty SSE-S winds mixed downward across the entire area ( the PM MAX reached 74 degrees in Clintwood for a 46 degree rise ).

Thursday PM maximums reached the 60s in Norton-Wise and the ridge communities across central Wise and southern Dickenson counties ( with 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain ).  This was in contrast to the lower-middle 70s within downslope communities from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi and Grundy.

Floral species continue to run some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule, and in line with some of the warmer springs of past years.

The weather focus tonight is on strong winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus, with wind speeds increasing through the evening into the overnight.

Wind gusts of 30-40+ mph have been common above 2700 feet.

Sustained wind speeds of 15-30 mph are common at mid-upper elevations, to contrast with some valleys having light winds.

Forecast models continue to be varied with respect to rainfall amounts today into Friday, with the NAM group remaining more aggressive and heavier with totals verses the GFS and European models.

The high resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( below ) remains strongest with heavy rains from the Cumberland Mountains W-SW across eastern Kentucky and much of Tennessee.

The GFS Model ( below ) remains light, by comparison.

The midnight run of the HRRR Model has a weakening line of showers, with possible thunder, into the area by early to mid-afternoon today.

Redevelopment to the west, with severe thunderstorms, is expected during mid-late afternoon with that activity then moving E-NE into the mountains by the early overnight of Friday ( timing, of course, being subject to change a little ).

The latest update, just released, by the SPC has the entire area within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed by tonight into early hours of Friday.

Have a great Thursday.