My Forecast For Today ( March 31 )

ALERT For Strong SSE to SSW Winds Overnight Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations

A strong pressure gradient will drive strong winds across the mountains through today.  Waves of showers, with lightning-thunder will impact the area into Friday.  The strongest wave is currently looking to arrive by late Thursday night into the early overnight hours of Friday, with possible strong to locally severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall ( especially along-west of the Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau ).

Overnight Into This Morning

Increasing clouds.  Windy across mid-upper elevations.    SSE-S winds 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).

This Afternoon

A chance for showers, with possible thunder and brief downpours.  Windy.  SSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SSW-SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to 60s in Norton-Wise ( around 70 degrees amid downslope sites of the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely.  Some storms could be strong to locally severe.  Local downpours.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Showers, with possible thunder, will remain likely Friday ahead and along a strong cold front.  Much colder air will pour into the mountains overnight Friday into Saturday morning with temps dropping into the 30s to lower 40s on WNW-NW winds along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

Weather Discussion ( March 30-31 )

A frosty cold morning greeted mountain valleys on Thursday with widespread MINS in the 20s to low 30s.

The official MIN reached 28 degrees in Clintwood, with low-mid 20s in some of the mid-upper elevation mountain valleys in the High Knob Massif area.  Huge 45-50 degrees temperature rises followed into the afternoon as increasingly strong, gusty SSE-S winds mixed downward across the entire area ( the PM MAX reached 74 degrees in Clintwood for a 46 degree rise ).

Thursday PM maximums reached the 60s in Norton-Wise and the ridge communities across central Wise and southern Dickenson counties ( with 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain ).  This was in contrast to the lower-middle 70s within downslope communities from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi and Grundy.

Floral species continue to run some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule, and in line with some of the warmer springs of past years.

The weather focus tonight is on strong winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus, with wind speeds increasing through the evening into the overnight.

Wind gusts of 30-40+ mph have been common above 2700 feet.

Sustained wind speeds of 15-30 mph are common at mid-upper elevations, to contrast with some valleys having light winds.

Forecast models continue to be varied with respect to rainfall amounts today into Friday, with the NAM group remaining more aggressive and heavier with totals verses the GFS and European models.

The high resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( below ) remains strongest with heavy rains from the Cumberland Mountains W-SW across eastern Kentucky and much of Tennessee.

The GFS Model ( below ) remains light, by comparison.

The midnight run of the HRRR Model has a weakening line of showers, with possible thunder, into the area by early to mid-afternoon today.

Redevelopment to the west, with severe thunderstorms, is expected during mid-late afternoon with that activity then moving E-NE into the mountains by the early overnight of Friday ( timing, of course, being subject to change a little ).

The latest update, just released, by the SPC has the entire area within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed by tonight into early hours of Friday.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 30 )

ALERT For Strong SSE-SSW Winds Developing During Wednesday Night Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations

Heavy frost with a hard freeze will occur in mountain valleys overnight into this morning.  Low temperatures within the 20s to  low 30s will be common in mountain valleys.  Exposed mountain ridges-plateaus will remain frost free as winds increase at high elevations and mix downward to middle elevation ridges during the overnight into this morning.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE to SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on milder, exposed mountain ridges.

This Afternoon

A mix of sun and high clouds.  Warmer.  SSE winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 50s amid upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the low 70s in downslope locations ( mid-upper 60s Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Increasing clouds.  Windy across mid-upper elevations.  SSE-S winds 10 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).

Showers and thunderstorms, with possible downpours, will become likely during Thursday.  Waves of rain could produce heavy rainfall amounts during the Thursday-Saturday period.  Stay tuned for updates on this developing storm system.

Weather Discussion ( March 29-30 )

Upslope clouds into predawn hours of Tuesday broke enough for some frost to form in colder locations as temperatures dropped into the 30s.

A seasonably chilly Tuesday featured abundant sunshine and beautiful blue skies.  Afternoon temperatures varied from 40s across upper elevations, above 3000 feet, to lower-middle 50s in Norton-Wise and upper 50s in Pound-Clintwood.

The day ended with dry air and a nice sunset.

This set the stage for a large vertical temperature spread to develop tonight, with 1:00 AM temps at 32 degrees or lower amid colder valleys verses low-mid 40s on exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.

Increasing winds along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges overnight will mix downward across the entire area today, with strong wind speeds developing by tonight into Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the next storm system.

Following a much drier than average March, the potential for the first heavy precipitation ( rainfall ) event since the middle-end of February is on tap for the Thursday-Saturday period; although, variations of rain amounts are substantial depending upon the forecast model.  So questions remain as to what “basin-average” amounts will be.  Local variations are likely with any convection ( i.e., thunderstorms ).

*A factor on the side of the NAM, at least from a low-level forcing perspective, is the strong S-SW wind field that will be developing to enhance orographics.  Thus, heavy rain will be likely IF moisture transport into the area is not limited by upstream convection.

The NAM Model group is much heavier with rainfall amounts than the U.S. GFS Model.  Given the recent tendency for dryness during March this will be interesting to see which model verifies.

The convective pattern will also be a factor, and is difficult to predict accurately in advance, with strong-severe storms currently expected west and south of the Appalachians that could influence moisture transport into the mountains.

An enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with possible tornadoes, over the already water logged lower Mississippi Valley favors the lower rain numbers of the GFS-European models into Friday for the mountains.  However, this will need to be updated as the actual rain-storms develop.

Stay tuned for updates as new model runs come out today.

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 29 )

Increasing low clouds will prevent frost in most places along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide into the overnight-morning hours of Tuesday.  Patchy frost will be possible lee of the mountains with less cloudiness, and locally amid valleys should current clouds dissipate before sunrise.

A chance for mountain valley frost will become more significant during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with mostly clear skies across the entire area ( ridges will be milder with increasing air flow developing into Wednesday morning ).

Overnight Into Tuesday Morning

Increasing low clouds, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  Chance of a lower elevation sprinkle or upper elevation snow flurry.  NNW-N winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps dropping into 30s to around 40 degrees ( around 30 degrees at the summit of High Knob Massif ).  Wind chills in the upper 10s and 20s along highest mountain ridges.

Mid-Morning Tuesday Through The Afternoon

Decreasing clouds.  Beautiful blue skies into the afternoon.  Seasonably cool.  NNW to NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 40s upper elevations to the 50s to lower 60s ( 54-59 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE to SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on milder, exposed mountain ridges.

**An ALERT For Strong Winds Will Be Likely For The Period From Wednesday Night Through Thursday.  SSE-SW winds of 20-40+ mph will become possible during this time.

Weather Discussion ( March 28-29 )

Air turned much cooler behind an overnight cold front that produced brief downpours of rain, with lightning-thunder, across much of Wise, Dickenson, and Buchanan counties during the predawn hours of Monday.

Temperatures became coolest into the mid-morning to mid-day period of Monday, with low-mid 40s in Norton-Wise and Sandy Ridge and 30s amid upper elevations of the High Knob Massif.

*At the same time as temps were in the low-mid 30s in the High Knob Massif, air temperatures were in the 50s within the Great Valley of northeastern Tennessee ( Tri-Cities southwest ) on Monday.

Andrew Greear, Superintendent of the Norton Water Plant, reported 0.28″ of rainfall into early Monday ( measured by Joe Carter ).  A total of 0.15″ officially fell in Clintwood.

This brought the March 2016 total to 1.62″ in the City of Norton, with 12.76″ during the year to date ( January 1 to March 28 ).

Gary Hampton, Superintendent of the Big Stone Gap Water Plant, reported 0.63″ of rainfall at Big Cherry Dam during the March 24-28 period.

This brought the March 2016 total to 2.18″ at Big Cherry Lake Dam, with 17.64″ during the year to date ( January 1 to March 28 ).

The cloud deck began to break up and dissipate by early afternoon, which allowed temperatures to rise into lower 40s atop the lofty High Knob Massif and the upper 40s to lower 50s in Norton-Wise.

Following a gorgeous sunset with nearly cloud free skies, a redevelopment of low clouds occurred on northerly upslope flow in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif during evening hours of Monday.

This redevelopment of clouds on upslope flow will help prevent frost in most locations into the overnight, along- north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

*There is not yet much vegetation that can be harmed in this area by sub-freezing temperatures, except for anything someone might have planted outdoors that is not native to this area.

Following a seasonally chilly Tuesday the focus tonight will be on a much better chance for mountain valley frost, with a continuation of mostly clear-clear skies.  Exposed mid to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus will tend to be frost free as mixing increases overnight into Wednesday.

The next important weather system will allow March to end more Lion-like as rain and thunderstorms develop Thursday into Thursday Night.  This system will have the potential to generate some heavy rainfall amounts, with strong winds developing across the mountains by Wednesday Night into Thursday ( when an ALERT may be needed ).

Have a great Tuesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 28 )

Remainder Of This Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Gusty.  WNW-NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from lower 40s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the middle to upper 50s ( upper 40s to lower 50s in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Tuesday Morning

Partly-mostly clear during early evening then increasing clouds, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  Chance of a lower elevation light rain shower-sprinkle & a upper elevation snow flurry.  NW to NNW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, on upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s to around 40 degrees ( around 30 degrees at summit of High Knob Massif and in any valleys that can remain clear into the overnight ).  Wind chills in the upper 10s and 20s along highest mountain ridges.

Mid-Morning Tuesday Through The Afternoon

Decreasing clouds.  Beautiful blue skies into the afternoon.  Seasonably cool.  NNW to NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 40s upper elevations to the 50s to lower 60s ( 55-60 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE-SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on the milder, exposed mountain ridges.

Easter Weekend Forecast ( March 26-27 )

*Updated Below For Monday

A two species for one shot above features the first Rue-anemone of the season in bloom beside of a Wild Geranium leaf ( I have not yet found any Geraniums in bloom ).  The Rue-anemone possesses tiny, mitten-like leaves ( the flowers being very small as well ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

A change in my previous forecast from last night is to increase cloudiness for locations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide tonight, with upsloping northerly flow.  Eventually, cloudiness will be giving way to clearing by the predawn to post-sunrise period on Saturday morning.  This will act to reduce the significance of any frost that may form before sunrise.

Although Friday afternoon skies became partly cloudy, the tendency was for clouds to reform and bank up against the sprawling High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide as  sunset approached ( with light northerly upslope winds ).

Meanwhile, partly-mostly clear skies in places downslope of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( from river valleys of the Clinch & Powell into the Great Valley ) tonight will enhance the chance for valley frost in locations away from major rivers & lakes ( where fog will be more likely ).

Saturday Afternoon

A mix of sun and clouds is expected with warmer temps than observed Friday as winds shift SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph.  Afternoon temperatures are expected to vary from 50s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif, where more low clouds will develop with southerly upslope flow, to 60s in Norton-Wise and 70-75 degree readings at lower elevations in the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ( Pound-Grundy ).

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A significant vertical temperature spread is likely to develop beneath partly cloudy skies ( mostly high clouds )  as SSW-WSW winds begin increasing along upper elevation ridges ( 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts ).  Winds will remain calm in deep valleys and just breezy enough to keep the air mixed along exposed middle elevation ridges and plateaus.  Temperatures should vary from 30s to low 40s in the cooler valleys to 48-55 degrees along exposed mountain ridges.

*Updated at 3:00 AM Monday

Sunday Afternoon Into Monday Morning

A chance for strong-severe thunderstorms will exist west of the Appalachians during Sunday afternoon.  This will need monitoring for those traveling to the west, as well as locally via a possible line of thunderstorms approaching the mountains by late Sunday.

Clouds will be on the increase with a chance for afternoon showers giving way to a likely period of rain, with possible thunderstorms, during Sunday night into Monday morning.

Gusty SSE-SW winds are expected late Sunday PM-Sunday night, especially at the higher elevations.  Sunday PM temps will again vary widely from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A line of rain, with brief downpours, and local thunder will be moving across the Virginia-Kentucky border during the 3:00 to 4:30 AM period.

Temps will cool down significantly into Monday morning behind this front and dip to around freezing at the summit level of the High Knob Massif, with 40s across middle-lower elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif and the Tennessee Valley Divide ( the coolest conditions developing after sunrise into mid-morning on cold air transport ).

A cloudy, cold Monday follows with WNW-NW winds of 5-15 mph and temperatures that hold in 30s ( upper elevations ) and 40s ( middle elevations ) for much of the area along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  Milder 50s are expected to the south-southeast.

Cloud bases will be low and upper elevations, above 3300-3500 ft, are likely to be obscured in dense fog during much of the day on WNW-NW upslope flow.

*Some flurries or light snow showers will even be possible at the upper elevations during Monday Night into Tuesday morning. 

Brief Look Ahead To Early April

While the remainder of March is expected to average near to somewhat above “normal” ( amid up-down temps ), very strong signals now exist ( as I have noted for a long time ) for unseasonably cold air to move into the central-eastern USA during the first week of April.

This would be winter-like coldness and could also feature a chance for snow.  Stay tuned for more details.

Have a great Easter Holiday Weekend.

My Forecast For Today ( March 25 )

Heavy frost will form tonight in mountain valleys.  A hard freeze will occur in colder valleys with a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures overnight into Saturday morning.  Fog or patchy fog will be possible along major river and lakes in lower elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Showers, with a chance for thunder, decreasing overnight into morning.  Brief downpours possible through 4:00 AM.  Strong & gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning.  Turning cool.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to lower 50s ( coldest at highest elevations by morning and milder toward the Tri-Cities ).

Good Friday Afternoon

Becoming partly-mostly sunny.  Winds WNW-N at 5-15 mph. Cooler.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 40s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to the lower 60s below 2000 feet ( 50s in Norton-Wise & the ridge communities ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Cold.  Light easterly winds on mid-elevation ridges & plateaus.  Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph along highest mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with 20s to lower 30s in colder mountain valleys to the 40s on milder, exposed mid-upper elevation ridges.

Weather Discussion ( March 24-25 )

Reference my 032416 Forecast for details on Thursday conditions.

Roaring SW winds at high elevations last night mixed downward, as expected, into middle and lower elevations during the day Thursday.  Beneath partly sunny skies this generated unseasonably warm conditions until clouds and showers developed into late afternoon.

PM temperatures peaked in the 60s to around 70 degrees in Norton-Wise and the Sandy Ridge communities.  Extremes varying from upper 50s to lower 60s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the mid-upper 70s in downslope locations of the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork basins.

As climatology dictates, the coolest conditions occurred amid SW Upslope flow while the warmest conditions developed on sinking air on SW downsloping.  This often generates up to 15-20 degrees of temperature difference between coolest and warmest places, with elevation differences, of course, playing a significant role.

PM wind gusts of 30-40+ mph were common across the area.

The High Knob Massif put on a nice show in between shower bands as orographic clouds capped high crestlines beneath mountain waves above.

Observe a nice capping pilatus layer of clouds engulfing highest elevations along the massif on strong and gusty SW upslope flow, as multiple mountain waves formed just above.

 Pollination and pollinators were seen to be increasing.

Dandelion ( Taraxacum officinale ) is a composite flower of the Asteraceae Family, with many individual flowers comprising the head.  It depends on both cross-pollination by insects and self-pollination.

*If no insects are present it can pollinate itself as the stigma grows upward through the anthers, and in this process acts to obtain pollen grains which stick to the style (  remember, stigma-style-ovary form the female parts while anthers-stamens form the male parts ).  The stigma then curls, as observed above, and can obtain pollen grains stuck to the style.

While self-pollination is acceptable, it is not preferred, since over time it will reduce the gene pool and threaten genetic diversity that is obtained and best supported by cross-pollination. 

Insects were observed with pollen grains on them from numerous different plant species ( as the insect world is beginning to awaken from a long winter slumber ).

The focus is on an active weather pattern that closes out March and opens April, with a trend ( as I have previously noted ) for colder than average conditions amid a general up-down temperature regime.

The potential for anomalous cold of more prolonged nature will be possible by the first week of April.  Stay tuned!

Have a great Good Friday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 24 )

Showers & thunderstorms will become likely by late afternoon into early evening.  Some thunderstorms could be strong to locally severe, especially in places along & west of the High Knob Landform-Tennessee Valley Divide.  The main severe threat will be strong winds.  Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any watches or warnings which may be needed.

S-SW winds will increase this afternoon into this evening, along and ahead of a cold front, with 30 to 40+ mph gusts becoming likely ( especially at mid-upper elevations ).

*SW winds are again strong tonight at highest elevations, with gusts between 40 and 50 mph reported atop the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain.  These strong winds will mix downward into middle-lower elevations today into this evening.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear early with some increasing high clouds toward morning.  Windy.  SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 40+ mph, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to low-mid 50s, except cooler in lower elevation valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds ( 30s in the colder valleys ).  Wind chills in the 30s, in gusts, along highest ridges.

This Afternoon Into Early Evening

Increasing clouds and winds.  A chance of showers, then showers & thunderstorm becoming likely by late PM into the early evening.  Some storms may be strong or locally severe.  S-SSW winds increasing to 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SSW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, upper elevation mountain ridges.

Tonight Into Good Friday

Rain & thunderstorms tapering to showers overnight into morning.  Strong and gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning.  Turning cooler overnight.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to low 50s ( coolest at highest elevations by morning ).

A much cooler air mass will be felt Friday as temperatures hold in the 30s above 3200 feet, with 40s to lower 50s across lower-middle elevations ( 40s in Norton-Wise ).  The good news, winds will be relatively light to reduce the effect of wind chills.

Weather Discussion ( March 23-24 )

Reference my 032316 Forecast for details on ROARING winds.

Winds last night continued to ROAR up to around sunrise at highest elevations, with a decrease following by mid-day before occasional gustiness ruled the afternoon.

The trend at middle elevations featured a decrease before sunrise, with a redevelopment of gustiness during the day.

Gusty winds made it difficult, along with a 45 degree slope, to take the first Bloodroot in bloom that I have seen so far.

The weather focus today will be on an active cold front with a band of showers & thunderstorms moving east-northeast toward the mountains this afternoon.

Rainfall is needed with only 1.14″ so far this month in Clintwood.  Superintendent Gary Hampton, of the Big Stone Gap Water Plant, reports that 1.55″ has fallen this month at Big Cherry Lake Dam.  Far below average for the month of March.

*The January 1 to March 23 precip total being 17.01″ at Big Cherry Dam.

The GFS Model disagrees with the NAM Model and on this latest run is predicting less than 0.10″ of rainfall.  That would fit the dry pattern of March 2016, but is also in disagreement with the European 9 KM Model.

*The European Model predicts the heaviest rains to fall from Norton-Wise southwest along the VA-KY border, with lesser amounts toward the northeast over the Russell Fork Basin.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will be west of the mountains by early afternoon, with eastward progression to near the Virginia-Kentucky border by 6:00 PM give or take an hour or so for the lead band ( local development could occur in advance of the lead band, with showers ).

A secondary line, along and just ahead of the cold front, as noted above, will likely arrive by late Thursday Night into early hours of the overnight followed by a decrease by the predawn-sunrise period of Good Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight into Friday morning.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be issued as this line moves east across Kentucky-Tennessee toward the Appalachians this afternoon.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 23 )

ALERT For Strong ( ROARING ) SW Winds On Middle-Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges-Plateaus Overnight Into Wednesday Morning ( And Also In Portions Of The Lower Elevations Of The Russell Fork Basin Northeast of The High Knob Massif-Black Mountain )

An increasing pressure gradient has developed strong SW winds along the Cumberland Mountains tonight.  Mixing of ROARING SW winds into lower elevations northeast of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide is also occurring ( in locations from Pound to Clintwood ).  Wind gusts of 30 to 50+ mph will be possible, with sustained speeds around 30 mph or higher along high ridges.

Conditions will remain windy today into Wednesday Night-early Thursday, but speeds should be a little lower than present.  Stay tuned for updates.

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Moon shine through high clouds.  Windy.  Large vertical temperature spread between mid-upper elevations and any lower elevation valleys that remain sheltered from strong winds.  SSW-SW winds 15-30 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Winds SW-WSW 20-35 mph, with 40-50+ mph gusts, along ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s & 50s ( mid-upper 50s in milder places ), except 30s in valleys that remain decoupled-sheltered from winds.

This Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Unseasonably warm.  Windy.  SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to the lower-middle 70s in downslope locations of the Russell Fork & Levisa Fork basins ( 60s Norton-Wise-Sandy Ridge ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Mostly clear early with increasing clouds toward morning.  Windy.  SSW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to low-mid 50s, except cooler in any low elevation valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.

Weather Discussion ( March 22-23 )

Another hard freeze started Tuesday in mountain valleys with temperatures as cold as the upper 10s to lower 20s in colder valleys across Wise and Dickenson counties.

Note that flowers-vegetation below show absolutely no signs of any freeze damage despite the prolonged sub-freezing conditions since they have become climatized to such spring conditions.  The Christmas Fern being one species that remain green through much of the winter season ( turning brown or brownish along edges on some plants by mid-late in the cold season ).

 A few new early spring species continue to bloom.

I found the first Golden Ragwort in bloom, which will become widespread ( especially above sandstone dominated stratas ) as spring progresses.  These plants ( below ) are very fibrous.

While winds were gusty Tuesday, they have become ROARING tonight across much of Wise and Dickenson counties with 30-50+ mph gusts.

*At 2:01 AM Wednesday the report from Lonesome Pine Airport was SW winds ( 240 degrees ) at 29 mph with gusts to 38 mph.  When sustained winds reach around 30 mph that is strong.

Sustained winds were at 30 mph at 1:50 AM ( below ).  Except along high ridges across the High Knob Massif, sustained speeds should not go much above 30 mph.  Wind gusts of 45-50+ mph have been occurring on High Knob since around 9:00 PM ( 6+ hours so far ), and have recently occurred at Lonesome Pine Airport in Wise.

Although winds are ROARING across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus in Wise & Dickenson counties, as well as northern Scott County and the border area along the VA-KY stateline, they have also been mixing downward into the favored zone northeast of the High Knob Massif & Black Mountain into the Pound-Clintwood corridor.

This has generated a huge temperature difference in valleys across Dickenson County, with 57 degrees in Clintwood and strong winds ( with downslope warming ) verses 37 degrees in the Birchleaf-Sandlick to Haysi area at the very same time ( 1:00 AM Wednesday ) where winds are calm.

3:00 AM Update:  The temperature here in Clintwood holds at 57.0 degrees with ROARING winds while it has dropped to 36.6 degrees at Sandlick ES.  The difference being my station is within a wave breaking zone on SW flow where strong winds mix downward to the northeast of the High Knob Massif – Black Mountain.

Winds remain gusty through today and tonight; although, be somewhat less strong than present.  Combined with low relative humidity this will enhance the danger of fires and extreme caution should be used ( NO BURNING should be done across the region until rain falls ).

Showers & thunderstorms will become likely by mid to late Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night.

The high resolution NAM ( below ) is trying to show that rainfall will be varied and associated with bands of showers-storms by later Thursday into Friday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has the Virginia-Kentucky border area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

A limiting factor initially is the very dry, low dewpoint air currently in place that will need to moisten up to support thunderstorms and just rain.  Remember that March 2016 currently is on an all-time record dry pace.

***The tendency for near to below average spring precipitation has been observed during past +ENSO ( El Nino events ); however, a potentially more important trend that will bear watching is that the 3 driest years on record locally have occurred in years that have transitioned from El Nino into La Nina ( e.g., 1987-88, 1998-99, 2007 ).  I will have more about this later.

Stay tuned for updates.

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 22 )

ALERT For Strong ( ROARING ) SW Winds Developing On Middle-Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges-Plateaus During Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

An increasing pressure gradient will develop strong SW winds along the Cumberland Mountains late today into Wednesday AM.  Mixing of ROARING SW winds into lower elevations northeast of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide will also be possible for locations in the Pound-Clintwood corridor, for example, of the Russell Fork Basin as vertical mixing increases.  The magnitude of downward mixing will be hindered if a very strong inversion can develop in lower levels; however, it is not currently expected to be deep enough to greatly hinder downward mixing in favored sites.

In general the strongest winds are expected for exposed locations from Norton-Wise upward in elevation during Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as a low-level jet at 875-850 MB develops and lowers, with topographic channelization, between the High Knob Massif and Black mountains along the High Knob Landform.

Tonight Into Tuesday Morning

Mostly clear.  Frosty mountain valleys with a hard freeze.  W to SW winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed middle to upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s colder valleys to low-mid 30s on exposed middle elevation ridges ( except upper 10s-lower 20s in coldest mountain valleys of the middle-upper elevations ).  Wind chills in the 10s & 20s along higher mountain ridges.

This Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Milder.  Winds SSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from upper 40s to low 50s at upper elevations ( above 3000 feet ) to the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear.  Becoming windy.  Large vertical temp spread between mid-upper elevations and any valleys that remain sheltered from strong winds in lower elevations.  SSW-SW winds 15-30 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 ft.  Winds SW-WSW 20-35 mph, with gusts to 45+ mph, along ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees, except 30s in any valleys that remain decoupled and sheltered from strong winds.

*Wind gusts of 30 to 50+ mph will be possible at middle to upper elevations, and where mountain waves may aid mixing downward into lower elevations northeast of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide during Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning.

Weather Discussion ( March 20-22 )

A cold Palm Sunday weekend was experienced across the Cumberlands, with rime formation at high elevations amid the High Knob Massif into Sunday morning.

The bulk of snowfall remained far northeast and south of the area, with local accumulations at highest elevations up to 7″ on Canaan Mountain, in northeastern West Virginia, and atop Mount LeConte in the Great Smokies ( a trace was reported on Beech Mountain ).

Snowfall was limited to only a trace.  This has been a trend with precipitation, in general, during March 2016 which is currently on pace to become the driest March of all-time.

*A predicted band of showers & thunderstorms, with downpours, could change this and, at least, prevent March 2016 from becoming the driest on record by Thursday Night-Friday AM.  Time will tell.

Most cultivated and woodland wildflowers currently in bloom across Wise & Dickenson counties are climatized to coldness as typically observed in March.  A widespread freeze occurring into Monday morning ( March 21 ) with MIN temperatures in the 20s being common ( upper 10s to lower 20s in the coldest places ).

*Wind chill factors dropped to around 0 degrees, in gusts, atop the High Knob Massif during Sunday night into Monday morning.

Reference Early Spring 2016 In The Appalachians for more scenes.

The weather focus this week, and actually through the remainder of March into early April, will be on a up-down temperature regime so common at this time of year as the season’s battle for control of the regional landscape.

Although some maples are budding, the majority of trees remain bare and devoid of new growth ( the mid-April to mid-May period being climatologically the explosive period of regeneration and spring renewal across most of Wise and Dickenson counties ).

*Spring growth and renewal tending to occur earlier on the Kentucky side of the stateline, and in river valleys southward toward the Tri-Cities and southwest toward Cumberland Gap, than in most of Wise County.

Clear skies and relatively light winds will set the stage for another cold and frosty morning in mountain valleys, with 18-25 degrees in coldest valleys and upper 20s to lower 30s in milder valleys ( as of 10:30 PM Monday it was already in the upper 20s to lower 30s in colder mountain valleys ).

Dewpoints are very low as this recent air mass was of Arctic origins, late season modified, and are aiding temperatures declines in mountain valleys ( especially ) via drainage and radiational cooling.

Conditions begin changing significantly by late today into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens up along and west of the Appalachians.  A classic ROARING wind setting for the Cumberlands, and I already have an ALERT to cover this so everyone will be aware of these changes upcoming tonight into early Wednesday.

 This strong warm air transport will occur in advance of the next chance for rain and thunderstorms by late Thursday into early hours of Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of the mountains.  This area will need to be followed through coming days ( as changes will be likely ).

Have a great Tuesday.

My Weekend Forecast ( March 20-21 )

ALERT For Dense Fog Formation Along & North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide On NNW-N Upslope Flow Late Saturday Into Sunday Morning For Middle-Upper Elevations above 2500-3000 Feet

9:00 PM Update on Saturday – Very Dense fog has developed above 3400 feet, with freezing fog at highest elevations, on northerly upslope flow.  Cloud bases and the freezing level will drop into the overnight and reach down to around the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone.

The latest model trends suggest that any snow accumulations will be restricted to highest elevations, above 3300 feet, and be light, with generally 1″ or less.  Little to no snow accumulations are now expected for elevations below 3300 feet.

Saturday Morning-Afternoon

Cloudy skies will give way initially to virga as dry low level air will cause evaporation of Doppler detectable echoes over the area into the overnight.  Sprinkles will be possible, with a better chance of showers-light rain developing during the sunrise to mid-morning period.

A good chance for light rain-showers will continue into the early afternoon, with a possible break following during the mid-late afternoon.

Temperatures during the day will be chilly and generally range in the 40s, with dropping temperatures amid dense fog at the summit level of the High Knob Massif ( in 30s ) during the mid-late afternoon.

Saturday afternoon temperatures reached the low 50s in Norton-Wise and adjacent middle elevation communities, with 40s above 3000 feet.  The presence of significant dry air in lower levels and lack of enough rain to reach saturation delayed the lowering of cloud bases at upper elevations until after cold air transport got underway after 5:00 PM.  A rapid drop in cloud bases occurred following sunset, with dense fog being observed by 9:00 PM at elevations above 3400 feet.

The lower limit of dense fog formation is yet to be determined, but is estimated to reach within the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone for locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide overnight into Sunday morning.  Freezing fog at the highest elevations will also drop lower with time as the freezing level lowers overnight into Sunday morning.  Some freezing drizzle, drizzle and/or very light snow will also be possible.

*The dense fog and freezing fog level may remain above Wise, but this is yet to be determined overnight into Sunday morning ( if not reaching Wise it will not be very far above ).  Caution is advised for those planning on traveling overnight into Sunday morning along roadways that reach above 2500-3000 feet for low visibilities.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A general NE-ENE wind flow will shift northerly during the afternoon and colder air will begin to arrive by the 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM period at elevations of Norton-Wise.  Cloud bases will tend to drop from upper into middle elevations as cold air and low-level moisture combine on northerly upslope.

Any light precipitation developing on upslope flow will fall as drizzle or light snow, with any snow that sticks expected to remain at elevations above 3000 to 3500 feet.

*Some light echoes developing on Dual-Pol Doppler as of 9:30 PM Saturday will move south into the area on northerly upslope flow into the overnight as drizzle or very light snow ( mainly for places along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ).

Sunday Afternoon Into Sunday Night

Latest model trends suggest some drier low-level air may try to work into the area, with low morning cloud bases-dense fog lifting.  If breaks in the overcast occur this could allow temperatures to rise into the 40s to low 50s at lower-middle elevations, with 30s across upper elevations above 3300 feet.  This may need to be updated later, as if clouds hold temperatures will be colder than this at all elevations along the upslope side of the mountains ( especially, with respect to NW upslope flow ).

Some flow off the Great Lakes will keep a chance for rain showers, or higher elevation snow showers-flurries, as a possibility late Sunday into Sunday Night.

Weekend Bottom Line

The Bottom Line: Palm Sunday Weekend will be colder than average for this time of year, but any snowfall is looking to be light and mainly restricted to highest elevations above 3300 feet ( with respect to sticking ).

Colder air will begin to arrive late Saturday PM into Saturday Night, with potential for cloud bases to drop and obscure middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide in dense fog ( this would impact typical locations subject to dense fog on northerly flow from Wise, and higher locations around Norton, to the ridge communities across Wise and Dickenson counties ).

*Freezing fog will be possible at elevations above 2700-3000 feet.

If drier air works into the area Sunday cloud bases will lift and there could even be some breaks.  If this occurs then temperatures will warm more than if clouds hold all day long.  The potential for flow off the Great Lakes will keep a chance for rain showers and snow showers in the forecast for late Sunday into Sunday Night.  Any accumulations again look to be light.

Weather Discussion ( March 18-20 )

A frosty cold start to your TGIF featured temperatures in the 20s in colder mountain valleys across Wise & Dickenson counties ( 29 degrees being the official MIN in Clintwood ).

*Widespread sub-freezing air temperatures were observed and reported in mountain valleys across the area ( nothing atypical for this time of year, but at least notable in wake of recent mildness ).

The day was again beautiful, with 50s to low-middle 60s across much of the area under mostly sunny skies.  I have taken many photographs of Yellow Trout Lilies during this month.  During Friday afternoon I came across what was probably the most beautiful one I’d seen ( young and fresh in nice light ).

Some clouds began increasing aloft toward sunset.

While still looking colder than average, this weekend weather picture is not looking as bad today as it did yesterday and the day before.

With exception of northeastern West Virginia and extreme northwestern & northern Virginia, models have trended a little weaker with this system.  There is some uncertainty remaining, especially with respect to wrap-around and Great Lake moisture transport.

Any accumulations across the southern Appalachians are looking to be at highest elevations, and mostly light, but could be a littler heavier for some places if the low-level moisture is better than currently shown.

An aspect of local concern being the potential for cloud bases to drop into middle elevations late Saturday into Sunday morning to generate dense fog as the colder air is transported across the mountains on NNW-N upslope flow.  This would impact Wise & adjacent communities along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide with the most dense fog and poor travel conditions.

As of 9:00 PM Saturday dense fog was down to 3400 feet, with a lowering of cloud bases expected overnight into Sunday morning into the 2500-3000 foot elevation zone.  This will either reach Wise or be just above that level by overnight into Sunday morning.

*Freezing fog, with riming, at the High Knob Massif summit level at 9:00 PM Saturday will also drop with time as the freezing level lowers toward 2500-3000 feet into Sunday morning.  Prolonged and most significant riming will occur at elevations above 3300 feet through Sunday morning ( with lifting cloud bases expected during the day as temperatures warm into the 30s and 40s ).

Have a great March Madness Weekend.