Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 27-29 )

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Clear.  Cold.  Large vertical temperature spread developing between cold valleys and “milder” ridges-exposed plateaus.  NW winds 5 to 10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures dropping into the 10s to lower 20s in valleys versus upper 20s to lower 30s on exposed mountain ridges-plateaus ( 10-15 degrees in coldest valleys of upper elevations ).  Wind chills in the 10s to lower 20s on highest mountain ridges.  A smoky smell to the air in portions of the area from SE Kentucky wild fires.

Monday Afternoon

Sunny.  Light winds.  Temperatures varying from 40s to around 50 degrees in upper elevations to the mid-upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Clear.  Rapid evening temperature drops in mountain valleys with a large vertical difference developing between cold valleys and milder mountain ridges-exposed plateaus.  Winds SSE to S at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on middle to upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from upper 10s to upper 20s in mountain valleys to the upper 30s to lower 40s on exposed ridges & plateaus.

Tuesday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Winds S-SSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear.  Rapid evening temperature drops in mountain valleys with a large vertical difference developing between cold valleys and milder mountain ridges-exposed plateaus.  Winds SW-W at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from 20 to 25 degrees in sheltered valleys to the lower-mid 40s on exposed ridges-plateaus.

Wednesday Afternoon

Mostly sunny.  Light winds.  Seasonally mild.  Temperatures varying from lower 50s in upper elevations to the low-mid 60s at middle-lower elevations.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Rapid evening temperature drops in mountain valleys with a large vertical difference developing between cold valleys and milder ridges.  Winds SSE-SW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from 20s in colder valleys to the low 40s on ridges-exposed plateaus.

Thursday Morning Through The Afternoon

Increasing clouds with a chance of rain showers developing by mid-late afternoon.  Winds SSW-WSW at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 40s to mid 50s ( coolest in upper elevations ).

Confidence of a Major Hemispheric Pattern Change Across North America is increasing for mid-late portions of next week, centered on December 6-9, with a shift to colder, wetter conditions. Potential for extreme cold is also being followed.

Weather Discussion ( Dry & Chilly )

Overnight Wednesday Update

This current weather pattern continues to feature cold nights in valleys and seasonally cool to mild days.  I have to say seasonally cool since days are now so short that by the time deep valleys warm from such cold nights the amount of time for “mild” conditions is now very limited before local sunset ( defined as when the sun slips beneath the mountain horizon ) causes temp drops to begin again!

I show Lonesome Pine Airport obs above since it should be pointed out that all is not as it may appear when it comes to the Wise Plateau, with large temp variations many nights on the plateau itself.

Monday evening, as an example, had similar temperatures reported at the Airport but when I left UVA-Wise around 9:15 PM the temperature was in the 30s ( only 1.5 air miles from Lonesome Pine Airport ) and cold enough for frost to begin forming in places near the old J.J. Kelly High School in Wise ( 2.1 air miles from the Airport ).  This is typical unless winds are gusty, such that the Airport temp is often most reflective of highly exposed locations in Wise ( this is why I frequently use the wording of “exposed plateaus” in my forecasts since this also applies to the Sandy Ridge area ).

SW winds have been more gusty, especially at mid-upper elevations, Tuesday evening into this early overnight of Wednesday such that sheltered valleys are now generally coldest ( 26 degrees in Clintwood at 2:50 AM Wednesday ).

Rainfall amounts continue to look generally light with the Thursday afternoon-night weather system.  Clearly a main focus remains on next week for a major pattern change that is already taking shape.

The big bulls-eye height anomaly over the Aleutians which had been positive through most of Autumn 2017 has now been replaced by a negative anomaly ( above ), as positive heights with Greenland Blocking continue to mature.

Reference My 110417 Forecast Discussion for more details.

A shift of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex into Eurasia by the start of Week 2 in December is signaling that a cross-polar flow could form, with potential for extreme cold to come into play to radically change the weather pattern across eastern North America.  Winter is just around the corner!

Previous Discussion

This view illustrates the pattern currently embracing the mountain landscape, dry and mostly clear with cold nights and seasonally cool days.

The first week or so of November was unseasonably mild, and dominated by a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, +AO, as noted above on the top graph of observed conditions traced by the black line.  Observe also that a shift into a -AO phase occurred shortly after that, and since November 10 the local pattern also changed into the current regime of cold nights, seasonably cool days, and drier than average conditions across the Mountain Empire.

The -AO as well as a -NAO have been largely acting to counter the impacts of a -PNA Oscillation which would typically generate unseasonably mild conditions.

Instead, the month of November has trended to near or below average in temps from this region northward.

Observe above that the Pacific North American ( PNA ) oscillation has been well down into negative territory throughout November.  That is about ready to change.

The 51-Member European Ensembles, The GFS Ensembles, The Canadian ( GEM ) Ensembles, and the Japanese Model are all in rather striking agreement that -AO and -NAO phases will be joined by both +PNA and +EPO ( Eastern Pacific Oscillation ) by the middle to end of next week.

If these teleconnection forecasts hold

through coming days this week, the BIG NEWS

will be the shift into WINTER across the eastern USA

by the middle to end of next week.

At this point in time individual model runs will be chaotic, but Ensemble MEANS are more stable and should be used most for guidance since the significance of this upcoming change is not yet being fully resolved by models.

The -AO and -NAO phases are looking very likely to continue such that the key player will be the Pacific Ocean and the phases of the PNA and EPO.

Stay tuned for later updates as this pattern evolution is tracked through coming days.

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 20-23 )

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Upslope clouds giving way to clearing skies.  Cold.  NW-W winds diminishing to 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps dropping into the low-mid 10s to low-mid 20s, except locally colder in high elevation valleys with adjacent snow cover in the high country of the High Knob Massif.  Wind chills in the single digits and 10s along high mountain ridges.

Monday Afternoon

Mostly sunny ( some increasing high altitude ice crystal clouds ).  Winds becoming SSE-SW at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts along mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 30s to the upper 40s to low 50s ( coldest at highest elevations ).  Wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s in upper elevations.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Partly cloudy ( high clouds ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between gusty ridges and the sheltered mountain valleys.  Winds SSE-SSW at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on mountain ridges-exposed plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SSW-SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures varying from 20s within colder valleys to upper 30s to lower 40s on gusty mountain ridges.  Wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday Afternoon

Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-late afternoon.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps varying low-mid 40s to the lower-middle 50s ( coldest in upper elevations ).  Wind chills in the 20s and 30s at upper elevations, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s along middle elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Cloudy with a chance of rain showers or sprinkles.  Flurries possible at highest elevations by morning.  Turning colder.  SW winds shifting NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s highest elevations to the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Wind Chills in the 10s and 20s at upper elevations.

Wednesday Morning Into Wednesday Afternoon

Low morning clouds, with a chance of flurries, giving way to afternoon clearing.  Colder.  Winds N at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures holding steady or slowly falling in the 30s to lower 40s, except in upper elevations where temperatures will remain around  or below freezing and fall during mid-late afternoon.

Wednesday Night Into Thanksgiving Morning

Clear & unseasonably cold.  Light winds.  Large vertical temperature spread developing between frigid mountain valleys and ridges.  Temperatures varying from the 10s in mountain valleys to the 20s on mountain ridges, except single digits possible in coldest valleys at upper elevations versus temperatures rising to around freezing along the highest mountain ridges.

Thanksgiving Afternoon

Partly cloudy ( increasing mid-high altitude clouds ).  Chilly.  Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts on highest mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from the 30s to around 40 degrees in upper elevations to the 40s to around 50 degrees in middle-lower elevations. Warmer south into the Great Valley.

Weather Discussion ( Cold Turkey Day )

Wednesday Night Update

The most favorable cooling conditions of this early cold season to date have developed over the mountains this evening with current dewpoints below zero ( F ) in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain.

As of 11:00 to 11:30 PM air temperatures as cold as the 10s to lower 20s are already occurring from the High Knob Massif south to Shady Valley in northeastern Tennessee ( in valleys with much milder conditions along ridges as a large vertical temperature spread continues to develop ).

The entire atmospheric column ( above ) will be bone dry through morning, with light winds, before some high to mid-level moisture begins to increase by later during Thanksgiving Day.  Have a great Holiday.

Tuesday Afternoon Update

It has been a windy Tuesday across the mountain landscape, with higher speeds than I predicted in some places.  Temps have varied from middle 40s atop the High Knob Massif on brisk upslope flow to lower 60s in Clintwood on downslope.

Factor in the strong winds and conditions have felt like the 30s all day ( even 20s in stronger gusts ) in the high country, which has been a factor, indeed, for hunters in the woods.

Snow has now melted except for upper north slopes where some lingers in the woods at heads of the High Knob Lake and Big Cherry Lake basins.

Temperatures reached mid-upper 50s in the Wise area, but again never felt that warm due to these gusty SW winds.

My updated forecast into Thanksgiving has few changes, with increasing clouds and the chance of a sprinkle or high elevation flurry tonight as the next cold front passes.  This will introduce colder air Wednesday and, after low clouds dissipate, will set the stage for a very cold night into the morning of Thanksgiving as conditions become prime for radiational cooling and cold air drainage.

For hunters in the high country expect a large vertical temp change to develop into Thanksgiving Morn, between frigid valleys and temperatures that rise toward freezing along highest mountain ridges as a westerly breeze develops ( * ).

*Anyone camping in high valleys should be prepared for temps that drop into the 10s, with coldest valleys making a run at the single digits on Thanksgiving Morning.  Bundle Up for certain!

Previous Discussion

 Following a dynamic system that brought wind damage and power outages to the mountain area, and sticking snow above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif, a quieter pattern is taking shape into Thanksgiving Day.  Another cold front, with building High Pressure, will set the stage for a very cold Thanksgiving Morning.

Reference Orographic Forcing Season on the High Knob Landform for information on how orographics have been generating some interesting and varied weather conditions during November.

Roaring wind gusts Saturday topped 50 mph in places, with numerous power outages into Saturday Night-early Sunday from the Cumberland Mountains west across Kentucky.

Clintwood 1 W NWS was out of electricity for 16 hours, with some locations out longer in Dickenson and Wise counties.

Rain turned to snow overnight into Sunday morning, with sticking mainly at elevations above 3000 feet where locally 1″ to 2″ fell at highest elevations above 3500 feet.  A total of 0.90″ of precipitation was measured at the City of Norton Water Plant up to 9 AM Sunday, with a trace of snow.

Temperatures held in the 20s all day Sunday atop the high country, where a light coating of snow continues to cover the ground at present.  Upslope clouds have been slow to break, but dry air transport should overcome clouds that are currently being generated by forced lifting of air.

A colder than average temperature pattern is looking to rule the next week to 10 days, but no big storms are being currently shown.  A large system, that could be a potential big deal storm for the eastern USA is shown developing far to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, but this is expected to lift out far enough east to have limited impacts on the mountain region.  Stay tuned should this change by Black Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Building High Pressure, with very low dewpoint air of true arctic origin, will set the stage for a very cold night heading into Thanksgiving Morning as skies clear and winds calm.

Happy Thanksgiving To Everyone!

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 14 )

ALERT For Freezing Fog At Upper Elevations Above 3000 to 3300 Feet Through Mid-Morning Tuesday

Cloud bases generally remained near to just above the Wise and Sandy Ridge plateaus Monday Night into this morning, with fog and freezing fog at elevations above 3000 to 3300 feet in elevation ( temps in the 20s at highest elevations ) within locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountains.

The low cloud deck, which has now kept highest elevations in the High Knob high country within dense fog for nearly 48 consecutive hours, will finally begin to break up later Tuesday.  If mixing is slow this will be a slow dissipation versus if vertical mixing and orographic waves develop.

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 9-12 )

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Partly to mostly clear, then becoming cloudy ( low, upslope clouds and areas of dense fog ).  Winds NW-N at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & exposed plateaus.  Turning colder.  Temperatures varying from 20 to 25 degrees at highest elevations to the middle 30s.  Wind chills in the 10s & 20s across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-exposed plateaus ( single digits and 10s along high mountain crest lines ).

Friday Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  N-NE winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 20s in upper elevations to the middle 30s to around 40 degrees.  Milder south into the Great Valley.

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear ( high clouds possible ) and unseasonably cold.  Increasingly large vertical temperature spread developing between cold valleys and milder mountain ridges.   Light & variable winds becoming southerly at 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from the upper 10s to mid-upper 20s, except as cold as 10-15 degrees in colder upper elevation valleys versus temps rising to near or above freezing along high mountain crest lines.

Saturday Afternoon

Sunshine & high altitude ice crystal clouds.  Winds SSE-SSW at generally less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to lower 40s in upper elevations to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Partly cloudy ( high altitude ice crystal clouds ).  Large vertical temperature spread between cold valleys and milder mountain ridges.  Winds SSW-SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from upper 10s to lower 20s in the colder valleys to the 30s to around 40 degrees on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

A changing upper air pattern across North America and the Northern Hemisphere will increase the potential for a shift into wintry conditions by Thanksgiving week.  Stay tuned for updates on this evolving hemispheric pattern.

Weather Discussion ( Arctic Brush )

A brush with true arctic air is featured during this forecast period in wake of some 36+ hours with dense fog at middle to upper elevations along & north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.

Check out the HUGE difference in conditions experienced from Wednesday at 5:48 PM ( above ) to Thursday at 5:20 PM ( below ).  Another period with development and drop of low cloud bases is expected into Friday morning as an arctic cold front pushes across the mountains.

A few snow flurries will even be possible in favored upslope locations; although, I have left this out of my forecast above since there will be only a brief period where this could occur with bone dry arctic air surging in behind the arctic front.

Although the main push of coldest air will remain to the northeast of the southern Appalachians, this area will get into true arctic air with dewpoints by Saturday morning plunging into 10s at the surface, and as low as -10 degrees Fahrenheit at the summit level of the High Knob Massif.

Under ideal conditions the coldest high valleys could drop into single digits; however, conditions may not be quite ideal with potential for high altitude ice crystal clouds aloft and mixing within the PBL being yet to be determined.  Still the possibility exists for some very cold temps in favored frost pockets with readings dropping under 10 degrees.

The upper air pattern does not seem compatible with all the coldness expected in coming days; however, this illustrates that not only do we not live at 500 MB ( around 18,000 feet ) but that the arctic is charging up with bitter air.

This is important since upper air blocking will be changing at high latitudes during the next week to 10 days, such that by the weekend before Thanksgiving, and the week of the holiday, the stage will be set for much colder conditions to develop across the eastern USA.

If this trend is real, it will become more evident in forecasts at 6-10 day time frames as we progress through next week.

A key feature above being bitterly cold air across western Canada and portions of Alaska.

I do not know what the upcoming winter will bring when all is said and done ( by next April-May ), but do have increasing confidence that the pattern starting to develop now, and within the next 1-2 weeks, could represent a big-time shift into winter for at least the latter portion of November into December.

My initial feeling is that the potential exists for more winter to occur between now and January 1 than was experienced during the anemic 2016-17 season.  This remains, of course, to be seen and will become more clear as the current pattern changes during the next one to two weeks across the eastern USA.

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 8-11 )

**UPDATE…ALERT For Dense Fog Continues Into Wednesday Night For Middle & Upper Elevations Along-North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide 

ALERT For Dense Fog At Mid-Upper Elevations Along And North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide From Late Tuesday Afternoon Into Wednesday

*A prolonged period of dense fog ( low clouds ) will develop as colder air invades the front range of the mountains from late Tuesday into Wednesday on upsloping northerly winds.  A cold, damp & raw feeling day is expected Wednesday when air temps will struggle in the 30s to lower 40s in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide, with milder conditions leeward of the mountains into river valleys of the Clinch, Holston and Great Valley.

Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

Colder.  Rain developing during the predawn-morning.  Dense fog at mid-upper elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  NNW-NNE winds at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temps falling into the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Wind chills dropping into the 20s to lower 30s at the highest elevations.

*The potential for some local freezing rain will exist along northern slopes-crest lines of the High Knob Massif with cooling on northerly upslope flow into the lower 30s.

Wednesday Morning Into The Afternoon

Rain tapering to showers-drizzle.  Nasty & bone chilling. Low cloud bases with dense fog at mid-upper elevations along-north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide.  Winds N-NE at 5-10 mph.  Temperatures varying from lower 30s to lower 40s.  Some breaks in the overcast possible leeward of the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain by mid-late afternoon.  Wind chills in the 20s to around 30 degrees at upper elevations.

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Low clouds ( widespread dense fog continuing at mid-upper elevations ).  Chilly.  A chance of light showers and drizzle.  Light N-NE winds becoming variable in direction at upper elevations.  Temperatures near steady or slowly rising in the 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday Morning Into The Afternoon

Becoming partly to mostly sunny.  Winds WNW-NW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the lower 40s to the lower 50s.

Thursday Night Into Friday Morning

Partly to mostly clear ( a period of increased low clouds possible into the morning ).  Winds NW-N at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and exposed plateaus.  Temperatures varying from the low the middle 20s to the middle 30s.  Wind chills in the 10s in upper elevations ( near 10 degrees highest peaks in gusts ).

Friday Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  N-NE winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 20s in upper elevations to the middle 30s to around 40 degrees.  Milder south into the Great Valley.

Friday Night Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ) and unseasonably cold.  Light and variable winds on mountain ridges.  Temps varying from the upper 10s to mid-upper 20s, except as cold as 10-15 degrees in colder upper elevations valleys.

Weather Discussion ( Nasty & Cold )

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Dense fog has now covered hundreds of square miles for 24 consecutive hours across northern Scott County, southern-central Wise County & central-southern Dickenson County.

The National Weather Service’s recognition of this:

is NONE!

I typically never say anything on this site, but as you see and experience this, drive in this, and know how widespread it is for 24-hours then ask this question:

If this occurred in the Great Valley, from Morristown to the Tri-Cities, what would be the resulting action?

Likely – Official Recognition with a Dense Fog Advisory.

It is not just MRX, but also RLX; however, MRX has the largest population impacted by these events, even though every single person COUNTS and a small community is just AS IMPORTANT as a big city which is my bottom line.

A raw, damp chill has, of course, been the other big story.  Check out today’s temperature trend from Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge, where dense fog has also been persistent all day long.

Temperatures at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif have been mainly in the mid-30s all day ( 33 to 38 degrees ).

Fog will continue through this evening, and it is looking more likely that it will continue into Thursday before the cloud bases finally lift.

Please slow down and be extremely careful as it has been difficult to see vehicles on the road, not to even mention other things like people or deer!

Previous Discussion

Widespread low clouds ( dense fog ) are about as thick as they get across mid-upper elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide as colder air is being lifted vertically over a moist mountain landscape.

I had this well forecast in advance, reference my 110617 Forecast for previous details on this nasty period of weather conditions.

Conditions will become colder and even more nasty as a round of rain develops overnight into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures along northern slopes and crest lines in the high country will be borderline, or very close to freezing, as rain redevelops overnight into Wednesday morning.  Close enough that folks traveling along State Route 619, 160, and Routes 238, 237, as well as others above 3300 feet, should be alert for possible slick patches amid the pea-soup fog.

If low clouds ( fog ) hang tough in the upslope flow through the day Wednesday then temperatures in Norton-Wise will hover in the nasty 30s to around 40 degrees, with somewhat milder conditions at lower elevations and within locations downslope and leeward of the High Knob high country and Tennessee Valley Divide.

A low cloud deck and neutral to slight warm air advection may help hold temperatures near steady Wednesday Night into Thursday morning in advance of the next push of even colder air set to arrive by Friday.

If the warm advection can out-weigh the neutrality, then rises in cloud base levels may also occur during the period of Wednesday Night-Thursday AM with eventual break-up of the cloud deck expected during the day Thursday.

The mountain area will be on the fringe of a big blob of much below average temperatures ( seen above ) over the western portion of Canada by Friday, with the core of the very coldest air extending from northern West Virginia northeastward into the New England states.

This will set the stage for the coldest temperatures of this season, to date, heading into Friday Night & Saturday AM, with 10s and 20s widespread.  Favored frost pockets will have the chance, at least, to plunge toward 10 degrees if skies are clear and winds decouple ( even colder readings will be possible, especially where 850 MB temps are colder toward the eastern-northern highlands in West Virginia; however, low clouds from Great Lake moisture could be a hindrance there, along with gustier 850 MB winds ).

Meanwhile,

Please use extreme caution in this very dense fog.

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 6-8 )

ALERT For Dense Fog At Mid-Upper Elevations Along And North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide From Late Tuesday Afternoon Into Wednesday

*A prolonged period of dense fog ( low clouds ) will develop as colder air invades the front range of the mountains from late Tuesday into Wednesday on upsloping northerly winds.  A cold, damp & raw feeling day is expected Wednesday when air temps will struggle in the 30s to lower 40s in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide, with milder conditions leeward of the mountains into river valleys of the Clinch, Holston and Great Valley.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Low clouds.  Turning cooler during the evening, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  Then rain developing overnight, with a chance of thunder.  Downpours likely.  N-NE winds at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, into the early overnight shifting SSE at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, by morning.  Temperatures falling into the upper 40s to low-mid 50s.

Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon

Rain, heavy at times, through the morning.  Thunder possible.  Rain tapering to showers into the afternoon.  Winds SSE-SSW shifting to NW-N by mid-late afternoon below 3200 feet at generally less than 10 mph.  SSE winds shifting W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, at upper elevations above 3200 feet.  Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 degrees, turning chilly during mid-late afternoon ( milder south into the Great Valley ).

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Low clouds.  Light showers or drizzle.  Turning colder.  Another period of dense fog likely at mid-upper elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  NNW-NNE winds at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts.  Temps falling into the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Wind chills dropping into the 20s to lower 30s at the highest elevations.

Wednesday Morning Into The Afternoon

Low cloud bases with areas of dense fog at mid-upper elevations along & north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  Cold & damp.  Drizzle possible.  Winds N-NE at generally less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from the lower 30s to lower 40s ( coldest at the highest elevations ).  Some breaks in the overcast possible leeward of the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain.  Wind chills in the 20s to around 30 degrees at high elevations.

Weather Discussion ( Wet & Colder )

A mild, wet beginning to November will transition into a wet and cold pattern into mid-week.  Locally heavy rain amounts will be possible Tuesday during this transition.

Folks living along and north of the High Knob high country and adjacent Tennessee Valley Divide need to get use to this view as low cloud bases become a persistent feature by late Tuesday into Wednesday, on upsloping northerly air flow.

The interaction of abundant low-level moisture with colder air will combine with lifting on upslope flow to generate a widespread low cloud deck into Tuesday Night-Wednesday, especially in locations ( of course ) on the rising air side of the Cumberland-Allegheny Front range.

Forecast models have been struggling to pin down where heavier rains will fall through Tuesday, but amounts of more than 2.00″ ( when including Monday ) are certainly possible in some locations ( around 1.30″ fell on Eagle Knob of the High Knob Massif Monday ), especially in those zones which have been ( and are being now ) pre-conditioned by condensation on rising air ( e.g., the lifting zone of the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain corridor to include the City of Norton & Towns of Wise, Appalachia, Big Stone Gap etc…).

A wave of low pressure developing over Texas, as seen above at 7 AM Monday, will spread a new wave of rain across the mountain region into Tuesday morning.

This will mark the beginning of a colder trend; however, due to upper air blocking over the Aleutians-Bering Sea sector, the brunt of the cold will dive into New England later this week as general -PNA ( negative Pacific North American oscillation ) is maintained.

The current 6-10 day trend is for near to a little above average temperatures locally, with above average temps forecast across much of the nation between the Rockies and Appalachians ( below ) by the 51-member ensemble mean.

Statistically, and in theory, a 51-member MEAN forecast should be more accurate than any individual model forecast.  While this is not always true, more often than not the use of the MEAN of a large group is best when doing longer-range outlooks.

A notable exception to the above being when atmospheric changes climatologically proven by history to alter a particular pattern can be picked out by a forecaster in advance of later model shifts.  An example of what I mean by this will be cited below with respect to the potential for changes heading toward Thanksgiving Week and early December that are only being hinted at by the best models.

Beyond the 6-10 day period there are increasing signs that high latitude blocking will begin changing its orientation, with a cross-latitude bridge of positive height anomalies forming from Northern Europe into Eastern Siberia along with a notable and increasingly negative trend in both the AO and NAO teleconnections, which could signal a more important pattern shift down the road ( especially if the current -PNA dissipates, which is NOT yet being forecast ).

Building of bitter air across northwestern Canada and parts of Alaska during next week in combination with formation of blocking near Greenland, can be preliminary indicators of Arctic Outbreaks into the continental USA.  Stay tuned for later updates on this evolving pattern.

Reference my 110417 Forecast for details about why blocking over the Aleutians-Bering Sea is important to SE USA conditions.  Note that cold can occur given this mean pattern, with 0 degrees being observed in high valleys of the High Knob Massif as late as March 16 this year; however, the type of pattern observed during Winter 2016-17 was not favorable for sustained cold-snowy weather.

Mountain Area Forecast ( Nov 4-6 )

ALERT For Strong ( ROARING ) SW Winds At Mid-Upper Elevations Into Monday Morning In Advance Of A Line Of Showers-Thunderstorms.  Caution Is Advised.

Strong SW winds will continue to blow into the overnight ahead of an approaching line of showers-thunderstorms.  Expect wind gusts of 30-40+ mph to continue, and to also mix downward into some SW flow wave zones across the northern portions of Wise and Dickenson counties.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is looking likely by later this weekend over the Ohio Valley, with potential for one or more bowing squall lines.  The eastward progress of this will need to be watched as it approaches the western side of the Appalachians by Monday. 

ALERT For Areas Of Local To Widespread Dense Fog Into Saturday Morning

Overnight Into Saturday Morning

Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers, especially by morning.  Low clouds with dense fog at upper elevations, and local to widespread at other elevations.  Light winds.  Temperatures widespread in the 50s.

Saturday Morning Into The Afternoon

Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers, especially along and southeast of the Tennessee Valley Divide and High Knob high country.  Breaks in the overcast possible by mid-late afternoon, especially north of the high terrain.  SSE-SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.  Temperatures varying from 50s in upper elevations to the middle-upper 60s ( warmest at lower elevations in the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

Partly-mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy overnight into the morning with a chance of drizzle or showers.  SSE-SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges below 2700 feet.  S-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Mild for the season with temperatures mostly in the 50s.  Area of dense fog possible, especially at high elevations along the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

Sunday Afternoon Updated

Partly-mostly cloudy.  Unseasonably warm & gusty.  S-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures from the 50s to low 60s at upper elevations to the upper 60s to low 70s ( warmest at lower elevations in the Russell & Levisa Fork basins, as well as to the south into the Great Valley ).

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Partly-mostly cloudy & windy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially overnight into Monday.  Winds S-SSW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.

Transition into a colder weather pattern is expected next week, with temperatures trending back toward near to below average.

Weather Discussion ( Moist-Mild )

Sunday Evening Updated Discussion

Strong SW winds are roaring over mountain ridges-exposed plateaus in the Cumberland Mountains this evening and will continue into the overnight as a line of showers and thunderstorms approaches the Appalachians.

Caution is advised to be extra careful of breaking limbs or trees, especially in the mid-upper elevations, but also at some lower sites in climatologically favored zones where mountain waves on SW winds break downward, such as within the Pound-Clintwood corridor and locations lying downstream of the High Knob Massif – Black Mountains.

Previous Discussion

A moist & unseasonably mild November air mass will grip the mountain landscape throughout this weekend, with a notable increase in gusty S-SW winds expected by Sunday into early Monday in advance of a cold front.

A rather large region from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the middle Mississippi Valley will come under the gun for potential severe thunderstorms by Sunday.  While the strongest activity is currently expected to remain west of the mountains, any east-southeast moving squall lines will need to be monitored as they cross into Kentucky.

Storminess will be occurring in advance of a major transition in the upper air pattern during next week; however, still not the complete change upstairs ( as highlighted below ).

This change being forced to occur as the atmosphere fights to establish some type of balance, between a simply HUGE autumn temperature gradient across North America ( noted above in the region between the eastern front range of the northern Rockies and the southern Plains & Mexico ).

  A shift from unseasonably mild to below average temperatures is currently forecast by the MEAN of European Ensembles.

However, before winter fans get carried away, it should be pointed out that anomalously strong 500 MB heights over the Aleutians and Bering Sea is present currently and is forecast to remain in place through the next 10 days.

*Observe how strikingly similar the current pattern ( above ) is to that observed ( in the mean ) during Winter 2016-17 ( below ).

If you do not understand why this is important, simply look back at the MEAN pattern observed during last winter and note that there is a strong correlation between positive 500 MB height anomalies with a Bulls-eye type of configuration over the Aleutians & Bering Sea and milder than average weather conditions in the eastern-southeastern USA.

If the positive 500 MB height anomaly pattern should lose its “bulls-eye” type of configuration, becoming elongated as observed above, during February 2015, then a completely different result would occur ( much different! ).

A negative trend in the Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations is forecast to occur during the next 1-2 weeks; however, due to persistence of a “bulls-eye” type of 500 MB height anomaly centered over the Aleutians-Bering Sea a -PNA pattern will continue to fight against eastern USA troughing.

It remains early, with the high latitude winter pattern just now taking shape, such that current blocking does not mean that the outcome will be the same as last winter ( every winter season is different, so stay tuned for updates as mixed signals are being teleconnected from the Arctic region at present…some which favor a “bad” winter and some favoring another mild season ).