A sharp temperature drop will occur between the predawn to sunset period of Saturday, with falling temperatures combining with gusty WNW winds to generate bone-chilling conditions. Flurries and snow showers will be likely Saturday Night into Sunday AM, with a dusting up to 1″ possible along the upslope side of the mountains ( with riming at highest elevations ).
Caution advised for those hunting and/or outdoors this weekend given this is the first wintry blast of the season ( it will feel very cold ). A few slick places, or even sections, could develop on roads ( especially in favored upslope locations at higher elevations ) Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.
Relative humidity will remain moderate-high along the upslope side of the mountains during the weekend, before sharp drops in values occur into early next week ( especially in upper elevations ).
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear early with increasing clouds and developing rain showers by morning. Becoming windy. SSW-SW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet by morning. SW winds at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges above 2700 feet. A large vertical evening temperature spread forming between colder valleys and breezy-gusty ridges, then temps rising in valleys overnight into morning ( falling on high ridges into morning ). Evening temps falling into 30s & 40s in valleys versus 50s-lower 60s on ridges. High ridges dropping rapidly to around 40 degrees by morning.
Saturday Morning Into Saturday Afternoon
Turning sharply colder. Morning rain showers changing to snow showers in the mid-upper elevations. Windy. W-NW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures falling into the 30s at middle-lower elevations, and into the 20s at upper elevations, in locations along & north-northwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide. Wind chills dropping into the 10s and 20s ( except single digits possible on highest peaks above 3500 feet by afternoon ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Chance of flurries & snow showers along the upslope side of the mountains. Cold & windy. WNW to NW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures dropping into the middle 10s to mid 20s ( coldest at the highest elevations ). Wind chills varying from -5 below to 5 above zero at highest elevations, in gusts, to the 10s in lower-middle elevations.
Sunday Afternoon
Becoming partly-mostly sunny. Cold. WNW-NW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the low-mid 20s in upper elevations to the low-mid 30s ( milder south into the Great Valley ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Clear & cold. WNW-NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 10s to mid 20s, near steady or slowly rising overnight at highest elevations.
Weather Discussion ( Cold Blast )
Saturday Afternoon Update
Official precipitation totals up to around 4:00 PM included 0.22″ on the campus of the University Of Virginia’s College At Wise and 0.30″ at the City of Norton Water Plant.
Snow flurries and occasional pellets of sleet fell in Norton-Wise all afternoon. Trees at the summit of High Knob had a light, visible coat of rime as late afternoon clouds lifted just enough to see the crest lines.
Saturday Morning Update
I have updated my forecast to take out the likely wording and to just have a change to snow showers in mid-upper elevations ( this may also include some lower elevations along-north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Some flakes are already falling in Wise and a little is actually beginning to stick at the summit level of the High Knob Massif where temps have dropped into the 20s as of 10:00 to 10:30 AM. Wind chills are already running as low as 10 to 15 degrees up top.
This cold followed around 0.30″ of rain at the summit level.
This cold blast means business, even though total accumulations will be limited across the area. Reference my previous discussion.
Previous Update
The first true blast of winter conditions will make even the most hardy shiver by later Saturday into Sunday morning.
High Knob Massif MesoNET – Eagle Knob
This will be especially true since even highest elevations climbed into the 60s during Friday afternoon.
Black Mountain MesoNET – Ending At 12:30 AM on Saturday ( November 19 )
Wind speeds are increasing across higher elevations within the Cumberland Mountains as a large vertical temperature spread ( 20 to 30 degrees ) has now formed between colder valleys ( in the 30s ) versus milder, increasingly windy ridges ( in the 50s & 60s ) as I had forecast.
*These temperature differences will tend to narrow into morning as vertical mixing increases and causes locally dramatic valley temperature jumps as high ridges ( which are holding steady ) begin to tumble by around sunrise.
While this will not be the significant precipitation event hoped for, it will be beneficial in terms of adding some wetness and increasing RH values. This will be especially true along the upslope side of the mountains where rain showers, snow showers, low cloud bases and riming ( at highest elevations ) on WNW-NW flow will combine.
NAM 12 KM Model 10 Meter Wind Streamlines & MSLP at 7 PM Saturday
Low-level moisture, in lowest levels of the atmosphere, will be limited with only extreme northern portions of West Virginia, northeastward along the Appalachians, receiving Great Lake moisture advection ( transport ) near the surface.
Due to friction within the planetary boundary layer ( PBL ), the flow turns across the surface isobars as roughly depicted by wind streamlines ( above & below graphics ) such that transport of moisture will be more west to west-northwest downstream of the Great Lakes. This causes the southern Appalachians to miss out, with flow from mid-continent, on this moisture.
NAM 12 KM Model 10 Meter Wind Streamlines & MSLP at 7 AM Sunday
Going above the surface layer, into the 950 to 850 MB zone, there will be some flow across the Great Lakes that reaches into the southern Appalachians ( especially for locations northeast of the Smokies from Lake Michigan ).
NAM 12 KM Model 850 MB Vorticity & Wind Vectors at 7 AM Sunday
Given very cold air and strong forcing ( torque forces ) this should be enough to at least generate the first widespread flurries and snow showers of the season, with a dusting up to around 1″ of accumulation ( perhaps locally more ) being possible along the windward side of the mountain chain, especially amid favored locations such as the High Knob Massif, Mount Rogers-Whitetop, Roan Mountain, and the Brumley-Beartowns of Clinch Mountain ( to note a few ).
The Bottom Line…A very cold weekend is upcoming with big stories being how COLD it will feel, the first widespread flakes, and the continued lack of a needed significant precipitation event. This is; however, part of a changing pattern that will feature more chances for precipitation in days and weeks ahead. Drought does not strike all at once, so in most cases it takes time to reduce and end its impact ( southwestern VA being amid a short-term drought versus locations to the south where much of 2016 has been dry ).
Forest fire conditions will worsen as the pressure gradient increases in advance of a cold front by late Thursday Night into Friday Night, before easing with increasing moisture, rising RH-cold air, this weekend.
A sharp temperature change will occur between Friday Night and Saturday afternoon-evening, with falling temperatures during the day Saturday ( and much colder wind chill factors ). Flurries and snow showers will be possible Saturday Night into Sunday, especially along the upslope side of the mountains.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds except NW at 5-10 mph along upper elevation ridges. Large vertical temp spread from frosty valleys to exposed ridges. Temps varying from the 20s in colder valleys to the low-mid 40s on exposed ridges.
Thursday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Mild. Winds SSW-WSW generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations to the middle 60s to around 70 degrees ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread forming between colder valleys and mild ridges. SSW to WSW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 20s to mid 30s in colder valleys to the upper 40s to mid 50s on ridges.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Unseasonably warm. SSW-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from lower-middle 60s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower 70s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear early with increasing clouds and developing rain showers by morning. Becoming windy. SSW-SW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet by morning. SW winds at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges above 2700 feet. A large vertical evening temperature spread forming between colder valleys and breezy-gusty ridges, then temps rising in valleys overnight into morning ( falling on high ridges into morning ). Evening temps falling into 30s & 40s in valleys versus 50s-lower 60s on ridges. High ridges dropping rapidly to around 40 degrees by morning.
Saturday Morning Into Saturday Afternoon
Turning sharply colder. Morning rain showers possibly mixing with or changing to snow in upper elevations before ending. Windy. W-NW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures falling into the 30s by afternoon at middle-lower elevations, and into the 20s at upper elevations, in locations along & north-northwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide. Wind chills dropping into the 10s and 20s ( except some single digits possible on highest peaks above 3500 feet ).
Flurries & snow showers will be likely Saturday Night Into Sunday along the upslope side of the mountains, with light accumulations ( up to 1″ possible at highest elevations ). Formation of rime along the highest ridges and peaks ( above 3500 ft ) is expected.
*Note To Hunters: A prolonged period of sub-freezing conditions will occur from mid-morning Saturday into Monday above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif. Bitter wind chill factors will also accompany the cold from Saturday into Sunday, especially on mountain ridges. Some slick stretches will be possible on roads within highest elevations as well.
Weather Discussion ( Wintry Blast )
The first blast of true winter air will strike Saturday with plunging temperatures and wind chills behind a cold front that passes early in the morning.
Forest Fire In SE Kentucky – Viewed From Pine Mountain In Dickenson County
Worsening fire conditions will have to be respected in advance of this cold front during Friday into Friday Night as winds increase with a strengthening pressure gradient. Smoke from many large fires burning across the southern Blue Ridge into the Cumberland Plateau may increase as winds shift S-SW in advance of this front.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast
Significant precipitation has never been expected with this event across the southern Appalachians, and latest model runs continue to confirm this with a weakening trend in precipitation amounts from west to east ( with little to nothing reaching east of the mountains ).
NAM 12 KM Model 850 MB Wind & Vorticity Forecast – 7 AM Sunday
It is hoped that enough moisture will be tapped from the Great Lakes to carry some into the southern Appalachians, with models suggesting best chances being northeast of the Great Smokies during Saturday Night into Sunday ( forcing from orographics will be moderate-strong with moisture seen as the limiting factor at this point ).
Some riming and light snow will be possible along windward slopes and crest lines in the High Knob Massif and Mount Rogers-Whitetop areas, with more significant snow accumulations to the northeast atop the eastern highlands of central-northern West Virginia. A small southward shift of air flow trajectories could change this, so be sure to check back for updates to see if local amounts may be greater than currently suggested by models.
As might be expected, the Great Lakes have unseasonably warm water for this time of year so if the vertical temp gradient can generate more mixing than models perceive ( via cold air moving over warm water ) then down-stream amounts could be greater than indicated in upslope locations.
Forest fire conditions will worsen as the pressure gradient increases in advance of a cold front by late Thursday into Friday, before easing with increasing moisture, rising RH and cold air, this weekend.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly clear. Cold. Winds W-NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from 18-25 degrees in colder valleys to the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s along exposed ridges.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds WSW-WNW 5-10 mph. Temps varying from middle-upper 40s at highest elevations to the middle to upper 50s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds westerly at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges. Temps varying from 30s in colder valleys to the low-mid 40s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. W-NW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds except NW at 5-10 mph along upper elevation ridges. Large vertical temp spread from frosty valleys to exposed ridges. Temps varying from the 20s in colder valleys to the low-mid 40s on exposed ridges.
The first significant blast of wintry weather is being monitored for this weekend, with upsloping NW winds and the potential for rain showers to change to snow. Accumulating snow may occur at high elevations. Stay tuned for later updates on this developing blast of cold conditions.
Weather Discussion ( Weekend Blast )
The main focus this week is on development of the first major winter storm of the 2016-17 season in the lee of the Rockies, with a track northeast toward the upper Lakes.
Looking Toward High Knob Massif Along Horizon – Birch Knob of Pine Mountain
Some leaves and autumn color remain visible across lower-middle elevations to illustrate the anomalous nature of Autumn 2016 in the mountains. Frosty cold nights during this past week show; however, that the pattern is changing, albeit slowly for those fighting wild fires across the region.
My confidence is high that this weekend through the remainder of November will begin to generate conditions that will help ease the wild fire situation, and dryness of the surfaces. It begins with formation of the first major winter storm of this season in lee of the Rockies.
European Model MSLP and 850 MB Forecast At 7 AM Thursday – November 17
Although moisture transport into the warm sector is not forecast to be what we really want, some rain will become likely as the storm deepens and generates a strong pressure gradient. Initially, this will cause worse fire conditions in advance of the rain Thursday Night and Friday.
European Model MSLP and 850 MB Forecast At 7 PM Sunday – November 20
Rain showers will become likely into early Saturday with a rush of cold air following by late Saturday into Sunday and Monday. A flow across the Great Lakes will carry moisture south into the windward slopes of the Appalachians, with snow becoming possible ( likely at high elevations ).
How much moisture reaches the southern Appalachians will depend upon the flow and that will in part be determined by low pressure formation over the Northeastern USA by this weekend. Significant snow accumulations will be most likely along the eastern West Virginia highlands. Stay tuned for later updates on this developing winter blast.
Partly-mostly cloudy. Colder. Winds N-NE 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s, coldest at highest elevations & in colder valleys.
Saturday Afternoon
Sunny. Crisp. Light winds mostly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from upper 30s to lower 40s in upper elevations to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Clear & cold. Hard freeze. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 10s in colder mountain valleys to the mid-upper 20s, except 30s on some exposed upper elevation mountain ridges.
Sunday Afternoon
Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late. Light and variable winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 40s in upper elevations to the middle 50s to around 60 degrees.
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 20s to lower 30s in coldest valleys to the 40s along exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.
Monday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Small chance of sprinkles or light showers. Light northerly winds. Temperatures varying from 40s at upper elevations to the 50s at low-middle elevations in and north of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide.
A changing flow pattern across North America is underway with increasing shots of chilly air, interrupted by milder periods. The potential for the coldest air of the season, with possible wintry precipitation, is being monitored for the 7-10 day forecast period leading up to Thanksgiving week ( Nov 19-22 interval ). Please check back for later updates on this changing pattern.
Weather Discussion ( Seasonable Cold )
Slowly but surely the weather pattern is starting to change, as you will be able to feel this weekend as cold air grips the mountain landscape ( near to a little below average for this time of year, and certainly different from previous weeks ).
GFS Model MIN Temperature Forecast By Sunday Morning ( November 13 )
A widespread freeze is expected Saturday Night into Sunday Morning with 10s and 20s across the area ( 10s in colder valleys where some 10s have already been observed in high valleys ).
Note that due to dry ground and very low dewpoint air in the 900 to 800 MB layer that MIN temperatures along the mountains will tend to be colder than MOS & models are predicting ( as has been observed already this month ).
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours
By early next week a system developing mostly east of the Appalachians will bring a chance for some precipitation, with the NAM Model group most aggressive in spreading some across the mountain chain.
The 51-Member European Ensembles also forecast some light amounts, but clearly place the emphasis of significant rainfall along the coastal Carolina’s ( a little more inland than predicted by the GFS Model below ).
GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours
Although a drought easing rainfall is not yet in the forecast, the good news is that with a changing pattern opportunities for precipitation will be increasing during the remainder of November into the holiday period.
Light rain & showers. Turning chilly. Winds shifting NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts ( especially along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus ). Areas of fog, with dense fog ( low cloud bases ) developing above 3000 feet. Temperatures by morning dropping into the upper 30s to upper 40s ( coldest at highest elevations ).
Wednesday Afternoon
Blustery & cold. Low cloud bases. Chance of drizzle at lower elevations and mix or flurries at highest elevations. Winds NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures holding nearly steady or falling through the 40s in lower-middle elevations, and through the 30s in upper elevations, amid locations along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif & Tennessee Valley Divide ( some breaks possible within the stratocumulus overcast lee of mountains into river valleys of the Clinch, Powell, and Holston ). Wind chills in the 30s to low 40s in mid-elevations, below 3000 feet, and in the 20s to low 30s above 3000 feet.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Cloudy & chilly. NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. Low cloud bases with light riming at highest elevations. Temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to the upper 30s ( coldest at highest elevations ). Wind chills in the 10s & 20s at highest elevations. Some cloud breaks possible leeward of mountains.
Thursday Afternoon
Sunny. Seasonally cool. Winds becoming WNW-W at mostly less than 10 mph outside of gustier high ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Clear. Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and gusty mountain ridges. Winds SW to WNW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s amid mountain valleys ( colder in any high valleys that can keep calm winds ) to the mid-upper 30s. Wind chill factors in the 20s along gusty mountain ridges.
Weather Discussion ( Colder Air )
A blustery, cold day for early November is expected to be felt Wednesday behind a cold front. Low clouds and wind chills will be factors along the upslope side of mountains, especially along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.
Looking West Into Coalfields from High Knob Massif ( Forest Fire in Harlan County )
Widespread smoke which overspread the region from many forest fires burning across the southern Appalachians, from Kentucky and Tennessee into Georgia and western North Carolina, will be pushed back toward the south and southeast ( smoke from fires northwest of the area could continue to be smelt ) Thursday.
A changing flow pattern will mean more cold shots through coming weeks toward Thanksgiving, with eventually the chance for more significant precipitation.
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure & Wind Streamlines
A second cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the mountain region by this weekend, with all locales having the potential for freezing & sub-freezing air ( even the mid-elevation thermal belt slopes & ridges ).
ALERT For Widespread Frost Into Saturday & Sunday Mornings, With A Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys
***A NO BURN BAN Is Now In Effect
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
Clear & cold. Widespread frost developing. Light winds on mid to upper elevation mountain ridges. Hard freeze in the colder mountain valleys. Localized fog possible over major lakes & rivers. Temperatures varying from low-mid 20s in colder valleys to the low-mid 30s ( mildest mid-elevation thermal belt slopes-ridges and near major lakes-rivers ).
Saturday Afternoon
Mostly sunny ( deep blue skies ). Light northerly winds. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 60s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Mostly clear. Frosty cold in valleys. Hard freeze in the valleys. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 17-23 degrees in colder valleys of upper elevations to the low-middle 30s ( warmest mid-elevation thermal belts ).
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny ( some high clouds ). Light NE-ENE winds. Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in upper elevations to the 60s across lower-middle elevations.
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature difference between frosty valleys & milder ridges. SE-S winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures varying from 20s to low 30s in mountain valleys to the mid-upper 40s on exposed ridges.
Monday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke-haze. Winds SSE-SE at 5-10 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 50s to around 60 in upper elevations to the mid-upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Rain showers and colder air, with increasing RH on developing and gusty NW-NNW upslope flow is expected for Wednesday ( the drop of cloud bases will impact locations above 3000 feet ). Stay tuned for updates on this fire conditions impact event.
Weather Discussion ( Dry Air )
Widespread frost was observed on the ground and roof-tops from Clintwood to Norton on Saturday morning ( Nov 5 ) as low temperatures dipped into the 20s. It was as my grand-daddy used to say, “like a snow.”
Morning mins dropped into the 20s in mountain valleys, with 29 degrees officially being recorded in Clintwood. Higher mountain valleys fell into the low-mid 20s.
High Knob MesoNET – November 5, 2016
Around 10 hours, or locally more, were recorded with temps at or below freezing in high valleys. By contrast, a freeze in thermal belt locations ( exposed slopes-ridges ) was escaped with local readings as “mild” as the upper 30s.
Late PM Sun & Smoke From High Knob Meadow – November 5, 2016
Saturday morning featured very smoky conditions around Pound as NNE-NE flow was just enough to carry smoke into town from a fire burning on Pine Mountain. Meanwhile, it was clear & mainly smoke-free in Clintwood, Wise-Norton.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
Only a slight wind shift from NNE-NE to NW-N allowed smoke from Pine Mountain to literally surge into the Norton-Wise & High Knob Massif area during Saturday afternoon. At least temporarily, with a subsequent wind shift back to NNE-NE again clearing much of the area.
*As winds shift more NE-ENE and eventually SE-SSE even the Pound area will clear as smoke will be pushed back toward Kentucky by later Sunday into Sunday Night.
Note that due to lower dewpoint air at higher elevations the fire conditions do not ease as much along ridges as they do in hollows and lower coves-valleys where nocturnal conditions feature rises in relative humidity as dewpoints-temperatures converge. This setting changes during the day as lower elevation RH drops.
Heavy frost is again, as expected, forming in valleys during this overnight-predawn of Sunday with another “snow” like covering being widespread into morning. Thermal belt sites will yet again miss another freeze.
*Thermal belt sites, as well as any other places that have not yet had a freeze, can now count the days before a freeze is observed as a major pattern change begins to occur across the Northern Hemisphere heading into mid-November.
Previous Discussion
Following enough rain to only dampen the forest, with totals varying from 0.03″ in Clintwood to a general 0.10″- 0.20″ within the High Knob Massif area, dry air is again reinforcing its grip on the mountain landscape.
Very dry air within the 900-800 MB layer will set the stage for cold temperatures both Saturday & Sunday mornings, especially within higher mountain valleys where I expect the first 10s to lower 20s of the season to be recorded. Mid-upper 20s being the coldest so far reported this autumn in the higher valleys.
October 2016 – The 850 MB Temperature Anomalies
The month of October 2016 ended 3.8 degrees above the 1981-2010 averages in both Clintwood and Wise, with MEAN temperatures of 56.8 degrees in Clintwood and 58.8 degrees on the campus of University Of Virginia’s College At Wise.
*There have been 4 October’s in Wise above 60.0 degrees with the warmest on record featuring a 61.5 degree MEAN temperature during October 1984 ( the great Arctic Outbreak in January 1985 followed to generate some of the coldest temps of all-time ).
October 1950 – The 850 MB Temperature Anomalies
Certainly one of the top analogs to this coast-to-coast warmth of October 2016 occurred in October 1950.
Closely compare October 1950 ( above ) with October 2016 and it is a rather amazing match. In the analog world it is about as close as one can get ( an analog typically referring to a previous set of weather conditions similar to what is being currently observed ).
A bad winter followed during 1950-51, with the GREAT Thanksgiving Snowstorm in November 1950 being one of the most amazing ( epic ) Appalachian storms of all-time.
The November 15, 1950 to February 15, 1951 period:
November 15, 1950 to February 15, 1951 – The 850 MB Temp Anomalies
Having a warm October and first half of November is not new; although, one would never know that if only listening to TWC ( The Warming Channel ). It is great to highlight the current state, but one must ( as Paul Harvey famously said ) also complete ( tell the rest of ) the story!
Rutgers University Snow Cover Extent
While the USA did have a mild October 2016, the expanse of total snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere came in at the third highest on record out of 49 years ( not that far behind the record set in October 1976 ). This was driven by rapid and extensive snow cover development across a good portion of Asia, centered upon Siberia, with an anomalous and weak Polar Vortex that has been undergoing what is a unprecedented ( for this time of year ) split.
European Model 10 MB Analysis For November 1, 2016
The split in the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere has occurred from the top ( above ) to the bottom ( below ).
European Model 150 MB Analysis For November 1, 2016
Arctic sea ice extent, by contrast to snow cover, is at a record low level for early November ( below ).
Arctic Sea Ice Extent At Record Low Level For Early November 2016
The last time I checked 1 + 1 = 2, so it is no surprise to me that snow cover expanse has been rapid and extensive around the Arctic Basin since open water = more moisture for evaporation and input into the atmosphere for snow.
The coldest air has developed on the opposite side of the North Pole, and has spread across much of Asia into portions of Europe ( below ).
October 27-November 2 Temperature Anomalies For Northern Hemisphere
Remember that while the Arctic Basin is warm relative to long-term averages, it is still plenty cold enough for snow production.
So while warmth has ruled the USA so far this autumn, many indications continue to suggest that a major pattern change will come to this side of the pole as well. Dryness will at least persist until this pattern change occurs into mid-late November ( with current odds favoring a wintry Thanksgiving to Christmas period ).
ALERT For Widespread Frost Across The Area, And A Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys, Friday Night Into Saturday Morning ( Another Frost-Freeze Is Likely In Mountain Valleys Saturday Night-Sunday Morning ).
*Smoke From Forest Fires In Kentucky & Along The Cumberland Plateau In Tennessee Will Continue To Impact The Area Until Winds Shift N-NE .
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 40s to low 50s in cooler valleys to the upper 50s to mid 60s along exposed slopes-ridges.
Thursday Afternoon
Becoming cloudy with a chance for rain showers. SW winds shifting W to WNW at 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts. Temps varying from low-mid 60s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Rain showers & gusty winds in the evening. Partial clearing into the morning. WNW winds shifting N-NE at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, decreasing during the morning. Temps dropping into the 40s to lower 50s.
Friday Afternoon
Sunny. Seasonally cool. N-NNE winds 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 40s in the upper elevations to the mid-upper 50s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Clear & cold. Widespread frost. Hard freeze in mountain valleys. Localized fog possible over major lakes & rivers. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 17-23 degrees in the colder mountain valleys to upper 20s-lower 30s.
Saturday Afternoon
Sunny. Light WNW-NNW winds generally less than 10 mph. Temps varying from 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Weather Discussion ( Frost-Freeze )
A cold front will offer another chance for needed rainfall as it pushes over the Appalachians late Thursday & Thursday Night. Fingers crossed that amounts can at least locally over-achieve in a few places; otherwise, a widespread wetting of fallen and falling leaves can be hoped for.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast
Forecast models are varied in potential amounts, from less than 0.10″ to locally more than 1.00″ on the high-resolution NAM. The golden rule: “when in drought…doubt.” In other words, odds are on the lower numbers verifying until seen otherwise.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast
The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensemble group is from 0.10″ to 0.50″ across the Mountain Empire ( about the same as forecast by the GFS Operational Model below ). The best rain coverage being along and west of the mountain chain, with a notable decrease along-lee of the Blue Ridge.
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast
High Pressure builds in during Friday to generate nearly ideal radiational cooling, cold air drainage, and vertical temperature inversion development Friday Night into Saturday Morning beneath clear skies and light winds.
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – Saturday AM ( Nov 5 )
The center of high pressure will ideally be directly over top of southwestern Virginia into Saturday morning, with similar conditions currently forecast into Sunday morning. This is accompanied by LOW dewpoint air in the 950-850 MB layer.
NAM 12 KM Model Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – Sunday AM ( Nov 6 )
The Bottom Line…Frosty COLD nights upcoming, especially in mountain valleys, with a general widespread frost being possible in nearly all locations Saturday morning ( and a HARD Freeze within many mountain valleys of the area ).
A similar set of conditions are expected Sunday morning within mountain valleys, with somewhat milder conditions in thermal belt locations ( i.e., along exposed slopes-ridges ).
Although frost and freezing conditions, with hard freezes, have already occurred in colder mountain valleys, many exposed mid-elevation ridges ( thermal belt locations ) and lower elevation river valleys have not yet recorded freezing temperatures.
Strong Smoke From Forest Fires Burning Along The Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau, From Southeastern Kentucky Into Tennessee, Will Generate Locally Poor Air Quality. Sensitive Individuals Should Limit Outdoor Exposure As Much As Possible In Locales Impacted By Smoke Filled Air.
The largest fire on Halloween was centered on Pine Mountain in Harlan County, Ky., near the Town of Cumberland. Around 1000 acres had burned since the fire, which was arson set, started on October 26. Mike Harp, from the Pike County, Ky., Forest Fire Command Center, reported to WSAZ-TV that 17 fires had been reported across the Kentucky coalfields during October 30-31.
Please Do NOT Even Think About Burning Outdoors.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy. Gusty NW winds along higher mountain ridges decreasing into morning. Areas of valley fog. Temps varying from 40s in coolest mountain valleys to mid-upper 50s along exposed ridges and plateaus.
Monday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy. Generally light S-SW winds. Temperatures varying from low-mid 60s in the upper elevations to the low-middle 70s.
Halloween Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. S-SW winds increasing to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 40s in coolest valleys to mid 50s-low 60s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. Unseasonably warm. SSW-SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Areas of strong-thick smoke.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from the upper 30s to mid 40s in colder mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed ridges.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly sunny ( mainly high clouds ) and unseasonably warm. Winds SW-WSW 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temps varying from 60s to around 70 degrees in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees at lower-middle elevations ( warmest south into the Great Valley ).
Weather Discussion ( SOS For Now )
As a new month dawns the Same Ole Same Pattern will continue, with unseasonably mild conditions for this time of year expected to dominate for a while longer.
Sugar Maple ( Acer saccharum ) Leaf – October 30, 2016
This mild pattern will allow a good amount of autumn color to linger into November, especially within thermal belt locations in middle elevations and across lower elevations.
It is important to note; however, that signs of change are showing up with potential for a major pattern shift across North America during the next 1-2 weeks heading into mid-November ( later this week into next week will start to see these changes begin to develop ).
GFS Ensemble Arctic Oscillation Forecast
November really marks the beginning of when we must start to pay more attention to global teleconnections, which are themselves a response to forcing features responsible for driving the development of changes.
GFS Ensembles North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
The Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) has been negative for a good while now as the Polar Vortex is unseasonably ( to record ) weak for this time of year and linked to above average snowfall and rates of snow cover expansion centered on Siberia.
Northern Hemisphere 500 MB Height Anomalies – October 1 to 28, 2016
500 MB height anomalies ( above average ) have dominated the arctic basin during October 2016, with a persistent area of below average 500 MB heights ( in response ) centered from the Pacific Northwest to the Aleutians tip and across the Northern Pacific into Asia.
Northern Hemisphere 850 MB Temp Anomalies – October 1-28, 2016
This type of pattern has driven a mild flow across most of the USA during October, anchored by a -PNA pattern with the low heights across the Northern Pacific Ocean.
GFS Ensembles Pacific-North American Oscillation Forecast
This pattern is about to change, with major changes possible by the second week of November that could be longer-lived in nature as a -EPO unites with a +PNA.
East Pacific Oscillation Forecast
It is important to note that individual models will be in a state of disarray, to some extent, as this process begins and that ensembles should be utilized ( as they really should be always for the medium range pattern MEAN ).
-AO
-NAO
+PNA
-EPO
If this teleconnection combination arises as now shown the unseasonable warmth of Autumn 2016 will END, with this arrangement being favorable for a shift into winter.
Details, of course, to be worked out but clearly we are now in sight of what may be a major shift in the flow pattern across Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stay tuned.
Cloudy then becoming partly cloudy by morning. Winds W-NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures dropping into the 40s-low 50s by morning. Local areas of valley fog.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Winds becoming westerly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations to upper 60s to lower 70s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys & milder mountain ridges-plateaus. SSW-WSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 30-35 degrees in colder valleys to the lower-middle 50s on exposed ridges. Areas of valley frost & fog.
Saturday Afternoon
Sunny & unseasonably warm. SSW-WSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly clear ( some high clouds ). Winds SW-W 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges and plateaus. Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to lower 40s in colder valleys to the mid-upper 50s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. Unseasonably warm. Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to mid-upper 70s.
Weather Discussion ( Dry Pattern )
A dry autumn pattern will continue to grip the mountain region through at least the next week, with a return to the unseasonable warmth experienced during much of October.
American Beech In Lower Elevations – October 25, 2016
With 1.27″ of moisture officially recorded at the City of Norton Water Plant this looks to end as the 2nd driest October on record behind the 0.55″ measured in October 2000.
Around 2.50″ of total precipitation has fallen at the summit level of the High Knob Massif during October. Much below average and a simply huge difference from the 7.00″ to 10.00″ observed during the past two October’s ( in 2014 and 2015 ).
This will likely also end as the 2nd driest October on record in Clintwood where the 0.78″ measured is behind the 0.33″ observed during October 2000 ( records date back 50+ years to 1964 ).
USA Drought Monitor
This is clearly short-term dryness for the High Knob Massif area where Summer 2016 was wet. The past two months featuring much below average rainfall.
That is around –3.50” below average for this time of year.
Precipitation so far this year in the City of Norton is already above 2007 ( 39.69″ ) and 1999 ( 42.44″ ), the two driest years on record since recording began in 1983.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies – Next 6-10 Days
This does not ease the dryness now, which is likely to worsen some during the next 7-10 days heading through most of the first week in November.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 1-5
Decreasing sun angles, especially in the mountains, at this time of year helps reduce evaporation rates, but continued unseasonable warmth will work to partly offset this.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 6-10
A trend toward colder, wetter conditions is being shown by the latest European Weeklies for the mid-late portion of the new month of November. This has been a period that I have targeted for a while ( mid-November ) now as being the time period when the orographic forcing season would begin to exert a notable influence upon the mountain region ( this will, of course, be dependent upon the synoptic pattern changing from that presently observed ).
Frost Formation Is Expected In Colder Mountain Valleys Into Tuesday Morning. Heavy Frost With A Hard Freeze Will Occur In The Colder Valleys Into Wednesday Morning.
Strong ( Roaring ) SW Winds Are Expected To Develop Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning Across Mid To Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges-Plateaus.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Clear & colder. Frost developing in colder mountain valleys. Areas of fog along main rivers, lakes, and wetlands. Winds NNW-NE at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys of the upper elevations to the middle 30s to around 40 degrees.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny ( some high clouds possible ). Light NE-ENE winds. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in the upper elevations to upper 50s to lower to middle 60s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear. Cold. Large vertical temperature spread between frosty valleys and exposed ridges. Hard freeze within the colder valleys. Winds SSE-SSW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation ridges. Temps from lower-middle 20s in colder valleys of upper elevations to the upper 30s to lower 40s on exposed ridges.
Wednesday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Winds SSW-SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts on mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations to upper 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Becoming cloudy & windy. Chance of a sprinkle or shower by morning. SSW-SW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SW to WSW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s in valleys to the mid-upper 50s on exposed ridges-plateaus.
Thursday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Warm. Chance of sprinkles or a shower. Winds SW-WSW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations to the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Weather Discussion ( Typical October )
A more typical October weather pattern has been ruling the mountain landscape in recent days, following anomalously warm conditions last week.
High Valleys of Big Cherry Lake Basin – October 23, 2016
It is beginning to look like late autumn-early winter on high valley floors in the High Knob Massif where a hard weekend freeze occurred ( with the first snowflakes of the season at the summit level around High Knob ).
Big Cherry Wetland Valley ( Around 13-Hours Sub-Freezing )
Some 12-13 consecutive hours at or below freezing were recorded during October 22-23 on high valley floors ( from around 9:30 PM on October 22 to after 10:00 AM on October 23 ). This generated a hard freeze due to the long duration ( 9-10 hours in upper 20s ).
Clintwood 1 W NWS Station ( 6.5 hours at or below freezing )
Colder valleys in lower-middle elevations also had a rather long sub-freezing period, with 6.5 hours at or below 32 degrees being recorded at the official Clintwood 1 W NWS Cooperative site.
HRRR Model Surface Dewpoint Forecast – 8:00 AM Tuesday ( October 25 )
Dry air advection, especially in the 925-850 MB level, will be key to cold nights into Tuesday-Wednesday mornings in the mountain valleys. Especially those in terrain high enough to tap into the really dry air. This is the driest, lowest Td or dewpoint air of the season to date.
Temperatures at 12:30 AM Tuesday were in the mid 30s to low 40s in valleys and the dry air had not yet even come into place ( with strongest advection expected into the predawn-morning hours of Tuesday. This will set the stage for coldest conditions, with rapid temperature drops, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ).
HRRR Model Surface Dewpoint Forecast – 2:00 PM Tuesday ( October 25 )
Strong winds are expected to begin developing at high elevations in the Cumberland Mountains late Wednesday, ahead of the next cold front, with ROARING SW speeds by Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning.
Although orographic forcing will be good, moisture will be limited such that rainfall amounts will likely not be as great as the 0.50″ to 1.00″+ amounts observed with the previous cold front.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp-Anomaly Forecast
The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensemble group is forecasting a return to anomalous warmth to end October and open up November. However, with significant cold air building at high latitudes over increasing snowpack this new month is not likely to follow the trend of October.
