A Hit-Miss Pattern Of Showers & Tropical Downpours In Thunderstorms Will Continue Through This Week
Although the heaviest widespread rainfall is expected along and north of the Ohio River, locally heavy to excessive rain will remain possible in places across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. A frontal boundary will get closer to the area by mid-late week, with significantly cooler air currently expected in the extended 5-10+ day period from August 19-23+.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower or local downpour. Areas of dense fog developing overnight. Winds SSW to SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours. Thunder possible. Light & variable winds, except SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along highest mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the middle 70s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy & hazy. Chance of an evening shower or local downpour in a thunderstorm. Areas of dense valley fog. Winds SSW to SW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Monday Afternoon
Partly cloudy & hazy. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours. Thunder possible. SSW-SW winds at 5-10 mph. Temperatures varying from the lower-middle 70s at highest elevations to the low-mid 80s ( hotter south, as typical during this entire period, toward the Tri-Cities ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly cloudy. Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours thunderstorm. Areas of dense fog. Winds SSE-SSW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid & hazy with temps in the 60s to lower 70s.
Weather Discussion ( Relief In Sight? )
The air temperature in Clintwood fell quickly from its PM MAX of 85.6 degrees into the 70s amid downpours in storms that developed over the area ( one of several showers during the day-light hours of August 14 ).
Creek With Sediment Following Downpours In Thunderstorms – August 14, 2016
Areas of dense fog developed in mountain valleys into the evening and overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s.
Places receiving rain during the weekend will begin the week with MAX temperatures a bit lower than locations that missed out ( via more insolation being used for evaporation than heating up surfaces ).
Continued high dewpoints making it difficult to really tell much difference in the way it feels, even though air temps will be a little lower in places with ground that got wet during the weekend.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast – Days 6-10
Multiple runs of the 51-Member European Model Ensemble show that temperatures in the extended 6-10 day period will be dropping to near or a little below average in the region between the Rockies & Appalachians ( much cooler than average air centered over the Dakotas ).
Meanwhile, continued muggy air will support hit-miss showers and tropical downpours in thunderstorms during this week, with a better coverage expected by mid-late week.
Previous Discussion
Beautiful tropical skies have ruled the mountain landscape as a relentlessly long stretch of atypically humid air grips the region. This has produced a hit-miss pattern of showers and thunderstorms throughout the first half of August.
Tropical Skies Above The University Of Virginia’s College At Wise – August 11, 2016
Take the atmosphere over the Gulf & Caribbean and shift it north into the southern Appalachians and these gorgeous tropical skies are the result ( minus the ocean + the mountains ). And with luck, for us, minus the flooding rains creating havoc over Louisiana.
Awesome Sunset Glow On North Edge of Cumulonimbus Anvil – August 12, 2016
While day-time temperatures have been plenty hot enough in the Cumberland Mountains, it’s night-time MINS which have actually been most anomalous versus climatology.
Daily National Weather Service Statistics For Clintwood
The August 1-13 MEAN Daily MAX in Clintwood has been 83.2 degrees, 2.2 degrees warmer than the 1981-2010 average.
The August 1-13 MEAN Daily MIN in Clintwood has been 65.9 degrees, which is 5.9 degrees warmer than the 1981-2010 average.
While the pattern has been warmer than average, nights have been MUCH warmer than average due to relentlessly high dewpoints.
While dewpoints have been in the lower-middle 70s in Clintwood by day, unlike flat terrain, this does not dictate night-time MINS given decoupling of boundary layer winds and development of nocturnal cool air drainage through mountain valleys.
This nice process allows night-time temperatures to drop below what the dewpoints might suggest. Still, despite the terrain driven feature, nights have been much warmer than average given a deep, vertical depth of humid air that limits how much radiation + drainage can cool the air.
Black Mountain MesoNET Daily Statistics
The anomalously humid air is reflected by temperatures at night recorded above 4,000 feet ( above ), where the average August 1-12 MIN has been 64.2 degrees along the crestline of Black Mountain.
Note this LIMITS the diurnal temperature range along these high crestlines, with a August 1-12 MEAN MAX of 76.3 degrees falling only 12.1 degrees to the MEAN MIN of 64.2 degrees. High valleys amid the High Knob Massif consistently being the coolest during this pattern with general MINS in the 60-65 degree range ( away from any moderating influences of larger lakes ).
Moon Rise Above The Cumberland Mountains – August 13, 2016
In honor of the Olympics, the current Gold Metal Count for 90 degree days continues to climb for the Tri-Cities in the Great Valley of the southern Appalachians.
Daily National Weather Service Statistics For The Tri-Cities
*It is interesting to note that in the Tri-Cities the daily departures of both the MAX and MIN are running nearly identical from long-term averages, with the August 1-12 MEAN Daily MAX of 91.7 degrees being +6.6 degrees above average while the August 1-12 MEAN Daily MIN of 69.2 degrees is +6.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average.
The 90 degree day count for this year remains at 1 for Wise and Clintwood, and at 0 for Nora 4 SSE and elevations above that level ( 2650 feet ). Meanwhile, Grundy has added one more day to make 10 for the Levisa Fork Valley this season.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 1-5
Looking ahead there are finally signs of change showing up in the modeling, with a break down of the heat ridge that is controlling current conditions and keeping flooding rains to the south and west ( above ).
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 6-10
Deep moisture along the Gulf will eventually advect toward the north and northeast. While the heaviest flooding rains are currently forecast to fall mostly along and just north of the Ohio River, this will bear watching since the longer the main swirl lingers along the Gulf Coast the better the odds that it could get picked up and advected farther northeast with time ( by mid-late week into next weekend ) than is currently forecast by main models ( some ensembles do show such a scenario as being possible ). Something to watch through coming days in the modeling.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 84-Hours
The NAM Model has been wanting to generate a subsidence zone of sinking air adjacent to the main rainfall corridor, keeping amounts very scant across much of central-eastern Tennessee & Kentucky versus the European Model which is allowing for more convection to fire over the region during the next 5 days ( a bigger and more important increase in rainfall does occur on the European during the 5-10 day forecast period as the upper ridge breaks down ).
The Bottom Line…More diversity looks to arise in weather conditions during the second half of August, with a continuation of tropical air and high humidity levels in the short-term ( next 3-5 days ) giving way to chances for more widespread rainfall and cooler air temperatures as upper ridging finally weakens in the 5-10+ day forecast period ( that is the current trend ).
Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue Through Coming Days With A Threat For Heavy To Excessive Rainfall In Places During The Remainder Of This Week Into Next Week
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through the foreseeable future, with little relief from high humidity levels. A new surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will combine with an approaching cold front to increase chances for heavy-excessive rainfall, especially from the Cumberland Mountains westward and northward into next week amid a persistent, slow to change weather pattern.
*NOTE – The position of an approaching cold front into next week will determine where the corridor of heaviest rains set up across the region. Different models, and individual ensemble members of the global models, are currently varied on where this will be. Stay tuned for updates.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Humid with areas of dense fog. Small chance of a shower. SSE-SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss showers and tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Winds SE-S at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, especially along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from low-mid 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours ( especially in the evening ). Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Thursday Afternoon
Humid & hazy. Hit-miss showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Light & variable winds. Temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s ( hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours ( especially in the evening ). Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Humid & hazy. Hit-miss showers & tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Light & variable winds. Temperatures in the 70s to low-mid 80s ( hotter south into the Tri-Cities ).
Weather Discussion ( Persistence )
Although a break from downpours and hit-miss storms was enjoyed by most on Tuesday, beneath tropical skies, the wet pattern of Summer 2016 shows no signs of letting up with renewed moisture streaming into the Cumberlands during coming days into this weekend-next week.
Break For Most On Tuesday – August 9, 2016
A recap of wetness since July 1 finds more than a foot of rain falling in the City of Norton during the 40 day period, with 10.56″ measured prior to that in May & June. This as downtown businesses clean up from Monday’s flash flood.
A total of 26 of the past 40 days ( 65% ) have
featured measurable rain in the City of Norton.
Summer 2016 Rainfall Total: 17.14″
( 22.64″ of rain since May 1 )
2016 Precip Total: 38.42″
*2016 precipitation totals have topped 45.00″ in wetter portions of the High Knob Massif ( about average for the City of Norton and the High Knob Massif for this point in a year ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
*When SE winds blow skies are often gorgeous in the High Knob Massif area with many wave clouds and other orographic forms.
Tuesday temperatures reached low-mid 80s from Norton-Wise into Clintwood, with 70s amid upper elevations above 3000-3300 feet in the High Knob Massif.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations
An official MAX temp of 86 degrees was observed in Clintwood on Tuesday to mark the hottest day in August and the warmest since July 27. While the TRI is going for a Gold Metal in 90 degree days, the count remains at 1 for Wise, Clintwood, and 0 for Nora 4 SSE and the higher terrain above that elevation ( 2650 feet ).
*Just outside the Cumberland Mountains there have been 9 days at or above 90 degrees in Grundy ( Summer MAX 94 degrees ). That is not surprising given Grundy is around 1000 vertical feet lower in elevation than the City of Norton and 1350 feet lower than Wise.
*A steamy, muggy air mass with high dewpoints have made conditions at all elevations feel uncomfortable during this seemingly endless summer.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Saturday – August 13, 2016
While models will continue to struggle to pinpoint where the heaviest rains will fall, a clear shift west has occurred this week with the 51-Member European Ensembles now showing the greatest rain potential from the Cumberland Mountains westward and northward over a prolonged time frame from late week into next week ( a clear persistence pattern signal with very slow changes over time ).
This makes sense given it fits the pattern of Summer 2016, where wettest conditions ( by far ) have occurred along and west to north of the Cumberland Mountain range versus the Tennessee Valley and most of the southern Appalachians.
*The SE flow pattern being less to much less productive than during summers when a wet feedback, instead of drought, is ongoing along eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians ( rains during August hopefully helping to ease the drought in western North Carolina ).
USA Drought Monitor For August 2, 2016
The next drought monitor will be released August 11.
The spotty nature of summer rain in the Tennessee Valley is a major reason for so many 90 degree days from TRI to TYS-CHA ( i.e., Tri-Cities to Knoxville-Chattanooga ), as dryness breeds more dry times and increases heat.
*There was essentially no chance of reaching 90 degrees, officially, from Norton-Wise to Clintwood on Tuesday since a significant portion of insolation ( incoming solar radiation ) was being put into evaporation from vegetation ( transpiration ) and the ground. This was in contrast to the TRI area where much more insolation could be applied to heating up surfaces, that heated the overlying air, instead of running evapo-transpiration processes.
Here we are talking about official, radiation shielded thermometers that make measuring air temperatures in Wise, Clintwood, and the Tri-Cities equivalent to each other. Not to Weatherbug sites, with roof sensors, or other such devices which tend to read in error during a pattern like this.
A forecaster in the Tri-Cities forecasts for the official MAX, and I do the same for Norton-Wise-Clintwood and our higher mountain terrain amid the Cumberland Mountains.
Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue Through Coming Days
Although the flash flood warning is no longer in effect, please use caution around swift running creeks and watch for ponding of water in low-lying places during the overnight into Tuesday morning.
Issued By Morristown NWSFO
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through the foreseeable future, with little relief from high humidity levels. A developing disturbance in northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico will be closely watched for possible impacts upon the southern Appalachians by mid-late this week.
Overnight Into Sunday Morning
Hazy & humid. Areas of dense fog. Chance of an isolated shower. Winds NW-NE winds 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to near 70.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours. Thunder possible. NE winds mostly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s ( hotter, as is typical, to the south toward the Great Valley and Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Hazy & humid. Areas of dense fog. Chance of a shower, especially during the evening. Light winds. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Monday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss showers & tropical downpours. Thunder possible. ENE-ESE winds 5-10 mph. Temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s ( hotter, as is typical, to the south toward the Great Valley and Tri-Cities ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Hazy & humid. Areas of dense fog. Chance of hit-miss showers ( especially along & S-SE of the High Knob Massif ). Winds SE to SSE 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss showers and tropical downpours in thunderstorms. Winds SE-SSE 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, especially along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from low-mid 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
*A heavy to excessive rainfall potential, of a more widespread nature than recently observed, may develop for portions of the southern Appalachians late this week. Stay tuned for updates.
Weather Discussion ( August 1-9 )
A new month has brought little change in the weather pattern, with less heat but continued high humidity to make conditions steamy and uncomfortable.
A total of 24 of the past 38 days ( 63% ) have
featured measurable rain in the City of Norton.
National Weather Service Station at UVA-Wise – Observer Layton Gardner
Conditions in Wise and Clintwood have been very similar, despite the higher elevation in Wise, during the first 6 days of August due to tropical air ( high humidity ) over wet ground with rain falling every day ( although heavy downpours have been hit-miss with rainfall totals locally to 3.00″+ during August 1-6 ).
National Weather Service Station at Clintwood 1 W – Observer Wayne Browning
The only relief, in part, has been in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif where daily MAXS in low to mid 70s have been common at highest elevations ( still with muggy air ) where breezy conditions have helped to some extent.
Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimate For Saturday – August 6, 2016
Tropical downpours Saturday ( August 6 ) were widely scattered with main corridors extending from Coeburn across portions of the Little Stony Creek & Guest River gorges southeast to near the Mendota Lookout Tower, from High Butte southeast over the U.S. 23 corridor ( between MECC & Harvey ) into the Stock Creek Basin and from the Cranks Creek & Stone Mountain WMA’s southeast by Jonesville to northwest of Kyles Ford. Local downpours hit in the City of Norton and near Appalachia.
*Doppler radar tends to under-estimate rainfall totals in these tropical downpours, especially in orographic locations where rising air further adds to their intensity ( rates of rain fall ). This was observed during July across the High Knob Massif, and in the City of Norton, and has continued during this first week of August ( the weather pattern has been the same ).
Doppler Rainfall Estimate – Zoomed In View – August 6, 2016
Some changes begin to show up into mid week as air flow becomes more easterly. An easterly wind in summer often does not have the same effect as during winter, with heavy rain still remaining possible due to convection ( especially daytime instability ) northwest of the Eastern Continental Divide via abundant low-level moisture.
During the orographic forcing season strong air flow tends to dry lower-levels northwest of the Eastern Continental Divide to reduce total rainfall amounts. Strong air flow is generally lacking during the convective season, outside of organized tropical systems that move inland with enhanced pressure gradients to increase winds, such that forecaster’s have to be more cautious ( especially during summers that feature obvious wet feedbacks ) given much more abundant low-level moisture to feed convection.
Throughout the year there also tends to be a secondary zone of enhanced precipitation on easterly air flow trajectories along the east-southeastern side of the High Knob Massif as noted in recent days with heavy rains over northern Scott County ( heavier than was forecast in much of the Flash Flood Watch zone to the east ).
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast Next 84-Hours
The upcoming extended forecast period will be one to watch as the MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles shows a distinct weakness, or break, in the heat ridges that could allow deep, tropical moisture to spread across the region.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast
Southwest North Carolina ( e.g., Lake Toxaway, Highlands, Brevard ) is certainly most favored for excessive rainfall as deep moisture flows north from the Gulf of Mexico, as are eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, but it can not be ruled out for locations from the Tennessee Valley back across the already wet Cumberland Mountains ( where it would not take as much to cause problems in the Cumberlands ).
Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue This Week Into This Weekend With A Threat For Localized Water Problems Upon Saturated Ground
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through coming days. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible amid a hit or miss pattern Thursday, with more widespread activity possible Friday into Saturday as a front drops into the mountain region.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible warnings or advisories.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Hazy & humid. Areas of dense fog. SE to SSW winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s.
Thursday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss tropical downpours and thunderstorms. Winds SE-S at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from low-middle 70s at highest elevations to the low-mid 80s.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Winds SSE-SSW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Torrential local rain. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Light winds ( outside storms ). Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the low-mid 80s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Small chance of a shower. Winds SW-NW at generally less than 10 mph. Temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Saturday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Torrential local rain. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Light winds ( outside storms ). Temperatures varying from upper 60s-lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s.
Weather Discussion ( August 2-6 )
Friday Night Update
A steamy ( tropically muggy ) air mass continues to grip the mountain area with locally heavy rains during the past 24-hours, with a notable bias ( to no surprise ) along the Scott County side of the High Knob Massif via E-SE air flow and upsloping into the high country.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Nice fish-tail lenticular clouds developed in the easterly flow across the massif ( above ) during Thursday afternoon-evening.
Scott County VA Automated Rain Gauges
Around 1.00″ of rain fell over the head of Big Cherry Lake basin, on the Wise County side of the massif, but heaviest widespread rains of 1.00″ to 2.00″+ fell in northern Scott County with rising air toward the high country from the NE-SE-S.
*The Camp Rock gauge is not working properly and reads much too low.
Measurable August rain has fallen daily in Clintwood, with 1.19″ measured so far during August 1-5 ( as of the afternoon ).
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 84-Hours
Models have been slowing the next approaching front, such that drier and less humid air is likely to never make it into the area to any significant extent. The NAM Model now has the lowest dewpoints at the High Knob Massif summit level only dropping to around 61 degrees ( previous days had them falling well down into the 50s ).
The Bottom Line…A continuation of hit-miss showers and tropical downpours, with thunderstorms possible, through the weekend into early next week.
A developing low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will still bear close watching for a possible influence on the southern Appalachians during the extended 5-10+ day period ( i.e., the mid to later portion of next week ).
Tropical Skies Above Little Stone Mountain Gap – Looking Toward Norton
Every day some place, or places, takes a torrential rainfall hit with St. Paul, Dante, and Castlewood being the targets during August 2. Fast forward a day to August 3 and it was the City of Norton, Big Cherry Lake, and other local places in Wise, Scott, Lee, Dickenson, and Russell counties.
Downpours on August 3 dropped 0.50-1.00″ of rain in 30 minutes or less, characteristic of tropical downpours ( with little to no lightning ).
Previously, on August 1, a gully washing downpour hit Wise with ponding of water along roads and increased run-off. In jungle-like fashion it left steamy looking fog and a bounty of haze in its wake.
Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge – Weather Observations during July 27-August 2
A wet feedback is influencing weather conditions across Wise and Dickenson counties, in particular, with another 0.69″ added onto the above observations for Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge into morning hours of August 3 ( making 4.90″ of rain during the past 7 days ).
Ditto for the City of Norton, which I will update later Thursday.
MAX temperatures have not climbed above the low-mid 70s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif since July 27, amid this wet pattern featuring abundant clouds and hit-miss tropical downpours.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Saturday – August 6, 2016
The pattern does not change into this weekend, with even an increasing chance for tropical downpours and storms as the next frontal boundary drops into the mountain region.
By next week an area of low pressure along the northern Gulf is being forecast by the European Model to develop, with abundant moisture that will bear close watching across locations from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians ( stay tuned for updates on that ).
Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue This Week With A Threat For Localized Water Problems In A Steamy, Jungle-like Air Mass
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through coming days. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible in places amid a hit or miss pattern.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible warnings or advisories.
Overnight Into Mid-Morning Tuesday
A chance of showers & thunderstorms, especially toward morning. Areas of dense fog. Light winds, except SW-W at 5-10 mph along upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures in the 60s.
Tuesday Mid-Morning Through The Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms becoming likely. Locally heavy rainfall. Winds becoming northerly at less than 10 mph ( outside storms ). Temperatures varying from upper 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
*This period will bear watching for prolonged dense fog formation across higher elevations amid the moisture laden atmosphere.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. Winds N-NE at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid. Temps in the 60s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds E-NE at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts ( especially on higher mountain ridges ). Temperatures varying from the upper 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the upper 70s to middle 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Partly cloudy. A chance of showers & thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Areas of dense valley fog. Winds SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s.
Weather Discussion ( July 31-Aug 4 )
A tropical, jungle atmosphere has a firm grip upon the Cumberland Mountains where hefty July and summer rainfall totals have been observed.
Tropical Sky Above Powell Valley of High Knob Massif
Although July 2016 was generally 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average across the region, differences in the actual observed conditions were simply amazing.
July 2016 Climate Data – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
MEAN July temperatures of 73.6 degrees in Wise ( above ) and 73.2 degrees in Clintwood ( below ) featured one day during the month at or above 90 degrees amid above average rainfall.
July 2016 Climate Data – Clintwood 1 W NWS Station
The MEAN July temperature in the Tri-Cities was 78.6 degrees, making it the second hottest on record amid dryness with only 2.89″ of total rainfall.
July 2016 Climate Data – Tri-Cities, Tennessee NWS Station
To put the above into better perspective, had the Tri-Cities experienced the same temperatures as Wise and Clintwood the month would have been cooler than average by 1.0 to 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
July 2016 Climate Data – Black Mountain MesoNET
Heading up into the high Cumberlands the MEAN July temp at the 4031 foot level on Black Mountain was 69.4 degrees, which would have ranked as the COLDEST on record in the Tri-Cities ( even though it was significantly warmer than average for July at this high elevation ). Rather amazing when you consider it by the actual numbers observed!
Dawn of Late Summer at Big Cherry Lake of High Knob Massif
Dr. Phil Shelton, professor emeritus extraordinaire at the University Of Virginia’s College At Wise, recently found the Hermit Thrush ( Catharus guttatus ) for the 4th consecutive year atop the High Knob Massif.
This means that this northern bird species is nesting atop the high country in the massif along with many other birds, such as the Veery Thrush ( Catharus fuscescens ), possessing northern affinities.
Temperatures on northern slopes in the massif are coolest, and tend to be cooler than exposed summits and open expanses around larger lakes.
Gorgeous Tropical Skies Above Big Cherry Lake of High Knob Massif
Although the lake level at Big Cherry is around 3117.0 feet above sea level, down about 3 vertical feet, it is not due to dryness and drought but rather to a large amount of water that has been released from the Dam during the past 4-6 weeks to help augment flow on the Powell River as it enters much drier terrain toward the Virginia-Tennessee stateline.
A key factor in relatively cooler summer conditions in upper elevations of the Cumberlands being abundant clouds and wetness, with the MEAN July rainfall recorded during the past 8-years being 7.03″ at Big Cherry Lake Dam prior to July 2016 which has been significantly wetter.
A total of 8.98″ of July rainfall was measured on the north base of the High Knob Massif at the City of Norton Water Plant ( 14.04″ since the beginning of Meteorological Summer on June 1 ).
Only 2.89″ of July rainfall ( 5.02″ since June 1 ) was measured officially in the Tri-Cities, Tn., aiding the large number of 90+ degree days observed due to dry ground and limited moisture for evaporation and evapotranspiration processes which help cool the air and support more cloud formations and showers-thunderstorms ( also cooling air ).
The sun does not heat air directly. Instead the sun heats surfaces of the earth which then heat the overlying air. If the ground is dry, with limited moisture for evaporation ( which uses up some of the insolation ), then a positive feedback for heating ( and often dryness ) develops during the summer season to help promote higher temperatures.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Thursday – August 4, 2016
Looking ahead there is little change in the forecast setting this week, with short-range models continuing to look like they have a bad case of the measles as guesses are made about where more tropical downpours may fall ( a brief break in the action may occur during mid-week if the NE wind flow can advect in more stable air…stay tuned ).
A gully washing downpour struck UVA-Wise Monday afternoon, August 1, with torrential rain like might be seen in the Amazon, spiced with lightning-thunder, before it quickly abated. This caused ponding of water along numerous roadways in Wise.
The Bottom Line…A jungle-like environment will continue to support hit-miss tropical downpours above the wet terrain, with more organized action possible at times…especially later in the week and weekend as another front stalls across the region.
Hit-Miss Tropical Downpours & Thunderstorms Will Continue This Weekend Into Next Week With A Threat For Localized Water Problems In A Jungle-like Air Mass
A jungle-like high water content air mass will continue to grip the mountain region through coming days. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible in places amid a hit or miss pattern.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible warnings or advisories.
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
Areas of dense fog. Chance of a shower or downpour in a thunderstorm, especially toward morning. SW-WSW winds 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures mostly in the 60s.
Saturday Afternoon
Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW to W winds 5-10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. Humid with temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to lower 80s ( warmer south toward the Great Valley and Tri-Cities and below 1500 feet ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. SW-W winds 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Sunday Afternoon
Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW to W winds 5-10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. Humid with temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to lower 80s ( warmer south toward the Great Valley and Tri-Cities and below 1500 feet ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. WSW-WNW winds 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Monday Afternoon
Chance of hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW to W winds 5-10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. Humid with temperatures varying from lower 70s at highest elevations to lower 80s ( warmer south toward the Great Valley and Tri-Cities and below 1500 feet ).
Weather Discussion ( July 26-August 1 )
The mountain landscape of the Cumberland Mountains has turned into a jungle, in wake of a general 5.00″ to 10.00″ of July rainfall, and like a jungle this will force a carbon copy forecast featuring a daily chance for hit or miss showers and tropical downpours.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Although many dry hours will be observed through coming days, the pattern of hit or miss downpours will continue as a humid air mass and wet landscape combine to generate abundant moisture for occasional development of showers and thunderstorms. While most of these will be non-flash flood producers, the risk for a local cloud burst must continue to be respected.
While day-time heating will favor the most activity, night-time heavy rains can not be ruled out at this time of year in a pattern that has now developed ( via progressive wetness and positive feedback for rainfall production above wetter terrain features ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Atmospheric heights increase again into next week but not to the extent observed during mid-late July, with a similar positioning of the heat dome suggesting a continuation of steamy air with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Forecast – DAYS 1 to 5
Heights increase some in the upcoming 5-10 day period as the air mass heats and the atmosphere undergoes vertical expansion in a persistent WNW-NW type of flow field.
European 51-Member Ensembles MEAN 500 MB Height Forecast – DAYS 6 to 10
Climatology shows that mean rainfall tends to undergo a decrease from July into August, on average, as noted here:
July To August MEAN Rainfall Trend
Big Cherry Lake Dam
7.05″ to 5.76″
Wise
5.30″ to 4.05″
Clintwood
4.75″ to 3.65″
During any given year; however, this may not hold true with persistence patterns like this making things more complicated as activity fires chaotically over wet terrain.
Ironically some are needing rain, especially south of the Cumberland Mountains, with all regions tending to have large variations in rainfall over short distances.
USA Drought Monitor As Of July 26, 2016
Wetness has clearly beat out dryness from the High Knob Massif northward, even though the level at Big Cherry Lake remains less than average due to release of large amounts of water during the past 4 weeks or so to augment flow on the Powell River that has been running into drier terrain within northern Tennessee.
Tropical Downpours & Booming Thunderstorms Will Be Possible At Times Into This Weekend – Some Storms Could Be Strong To Locally Severe In Addition To The Greatest Threats Of Lightning & Heavy Rain That Can Cause Localized Water Problems
The period from late Wednesday into Friday afternoon will bear close watching for an increase in coverage of tropical downpours in rain showers and thunderstorms, amid a high water content air mass. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible in places.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches, warnings, advisories.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Hazy & humid. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. SW-W winds generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday Afternoon
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy and humid. Light northerly winds ( outside any storms ). Temperatures varying from 70s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Hazy & humid. A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. Light winds. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Thursday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy & very humid. Winds SW-WNW 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy & very humid. Winds WNW-NW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy with showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW-W winds generally 10 mph or less outside any showers and storms. Temperatures varying from the upper 60s to lower 70s to the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Weather Discussion – Wet Vs. Dry
July 2016 has found the mountain region amid a battle zone between wetness and dryness, with both forces competing for control of the mountain landscape.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
The above view was captured as heavy rain was moving into the City of Norton late on Monday, with 1.32″ falling rapidly into the official NWS rain gauge at the Norton Water Plant ( boosting the July tally to 6.23″ and 2016 to 32.57″ ).
Meanwhile, other places had little rain with just 0.04″ measured in my official rain gauge at Clintwood 1 W ( 3.36″ during July ).
University Of Virginia’s College At Wise – NWS Observer Layton Gardner
The other story has been the heat. Official National Weather Service observer Layton Gardner, of UVA-Wise, recorded the first 90 degree day of 2016 on Sunday ( it is listed above as being the 24-hour MAX for the period that ended during the morning of July 25 ).
That marks a Lemon-Aide Day in Wise with it being the first official 90 degree day in more than 4 years, since July 1, 2012. Hitting 90 degrees in Wise is a big deal since it rarely occurs.
The longest stretch with no 90 degree days in Wise was 13 years, and occurred during the 1967-1979 period when the highest temp observed reached 89 degrees. The hottest temperature that has ever been observed in Wise reached a sizzling 95 degrees on June 30 in 2012 ( record keeping began in 1955 ).
Clintwood 1 W – Official NWS Observer Wayne Browning
I recorded the first official 90 degree day in 4 years for Clintwood on Saturday ( July 23 ), with 91 degrees listed as the 24-hour MAX ending during the morning of July 24.
Average July 2016 daily maximums being in the low-mid 80s for Clintwood and Wise.
Black Mountain MesoNET – July 1-25, 2016 Observations
Higher up in elevation, at the Black Mountain MesoNet site, several days have now managed to break 80 degrees at the 4031 foot level. The daily average MAX being 75.8 degrees.
*Temperatures atop the High Knob Massif tend to run a tad lower than at the Black Mountain MesoNet, and will be posted in coming months into next summer as data collection increases.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast – Next 60 Hours
The high-resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( above ) looks like it has caught a bad case of the measles, which is the model’s way of saying that “big downpours are coming…I just don’t know exactly when and where they will strike until storms actually develop.”
Folks in Wise County will just have to keep fingers crossed that the 9.00-10.20″ MAX during the next 10 days will be bogus, as forecast by the GFS Model ( below ), or at the least will not fall all at once!!
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 10 Days
The focus through the next few days will be on increasing chances for tropical downpours which, as has been seen during recent days, can drop a lot of water quickly!
My forecast for tropical downpours and possible water problems, first issued back during the weekend, came true and will remain valid through coming days as the air mass becomes even more humid.
Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings-advisories that may be needed.
Tropical Downpours & Booming Thunderstorms Will Be Possible At Times From Sunday Through Much Of This Upcoming Week – Some Storms Could Be Strong To Locally Severe In Addition To Dropping Heavy Rain The Could Cause Localized Water Problems
A high moisture content air mass will interact with a stalling boundary to increase coverage of showers & thunderstorms across the Cumberland Mountains through much of this week, especially from Monday ( July 25 ) through the final days of July as a steamy air mass holds across the region ( lower temps but high humidity ).
During this time of year wind shear tends to take a back seat as a severe weather generator, with CAPE ( instability ) and water loading of down-drafts becoming main factors along with slower storm motion that tends to prolong heavy rain, lightning, and any hail over a given location as many pulse up-down and “rain themselves out” over localized places.
Overnight Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly clear. Areas of dense fog ( especially in the northern portions of Wise County and western Dickenson where torrential rain fell Saturday ). Light winds. Mild. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly cloudy & continued hot. A chance of hit-miss showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light winds outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from middle-upper 70s at highest elevations to the middle 80s to around 90 degrees ( hotter toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Hazy & humid with areas of dense fog. Light winds. Temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
Monday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light and variable winds 10 mph or less outside any thunderstorms. Temps varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south toward the Great Valley ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Hazy & humid with areas of dense fog. Light winds, except W-NW at 5-10 mph on upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Humid. Light and variable winds 10 mph or less outside any thunderstorms. Temps varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south toward the Great Valley ).
Weather Discussion ( July 23-26+ )
Majestic cumulonimbus and towering cumulus illuminated by sunset on July 23 ( below ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Booming thunderstorms broke the heat in the Clintwood to Pound corridor on Saturday, with torrential rains falling on Red Onion Mountain into Pound and upper portions of the North Fork of Pound Lake watershed ( 1.00″ to 2.00″+ ).
Dual-Pol Doppler Rainfall Estimate ( 1.50-2.00″+ In Red )
The rainfall legend below also corresponds to this zoomed terrain map ( above ).
Dual-Pol Doppler With Rainfall Legend
The official temperature reached 90.6 degrees in Clintwood, prior to these thunderstorms, marking the first 90 degree reading of 2016 and the first observed since July 2012.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise
Temperatures peaked in the mid-upper 80s within middle elevations of central-southern Wise and Dickenson counties.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
*Layton Gardner reports that the official July 1-23 MAX has been 87 degrees at the University Of Virginia’s College At Wise ( the average Daily MAX during this period being 82.6 degrees ).
Official National Weather Service Data – UVA-Wise – Layton Gardner Observer
More hit-miss showers & booming thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as heat builds again. A better coverage of showers and tropical downpours in storms is expected by Monday-Tuesday through the final days of July.
Any given place could be hit or missed on multiple days, making prediction of where storms and heavy rains strike very difficult until activity actually develops on Doppler radar.
Coral Mushrooms After BOOMing Thunderstorms On July 23, 2016
A concern for too much rain, amid tropical downpours in a high water content air mass, has returned ( as seen between Clintwood-Pound on Saturday PM of July 23 ) and will remain a threat through the final days of July.
Reflections In Water Drops After BOOMing Thunderstorms On July 23, 2016
Models will continue to struggle with placement and amounts of the heavy downpours, but the signal is again clear for heavy to potentially excessive rainfall amounts.
NAM 4 KM Model Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Tuesday – July 26, 2016
The GFS Model has been very aggressive with heavy-excessive rainfall amounts during the upcoming 5-10+ day period.
GFS Model Rainfall Forecast Next 10-Days
The latest European Model is showing 2.00″ to 5.00″ basin average totals being possible during the next 10 days ( implying that local amounts could be much higher ).
GFS Model Rainfall Forecast Next 10-Days – Local Region
Rainfall amounts will most certainly vary greatly over short distances ( as seen July 23 ), which makes it hard for any model to resolve ( especially over complex terrain ).
The Bottom Line…Heat continues Sunday but with a trend of increasing humidity and increasing chances for more booming storms and tropical downpours at times through this coming week and the final days of July 2016. A concern for too much rain in some places will be a threat, as has been the pattern along and north of the Cumberland Mountains this summer.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for any watches, warnings & advisories which may be issued through coming days.
The hottest temperatures of this year will be possible in most places during Thursday-Friday ( July 21-22 ) before increasing humidity-clouds return a chance for showers and downpours in thunderstorms this weekend through next week ( especially in the mountains ). Use common sense ( slow down, take it easier and never leave pets or children in a vehicle – check on the elderly and those without air conditioning ).
Any thunderstorm developing this weekend into next week could be strong to locally severe with booming thunder and dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and gully washing rains.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light N winds shifting ENE to ESE at generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures from mid-upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s ( except lower 50s in upper elevation valleys above 2700-3000 feet within the High Knob Massif ).
Thursday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Hot. Light NE winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 80s in middle-low elevations north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide. MAXS 90 to 95 degrees lee of the High Knob Massif into the Great Valley.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light winds, except breezy-gusty along high mountain ridges. Temps varying from the mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s, except 50-55 degrees in higher valleys above 2400-3000 feet.
Friday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Hot. Chance of hit-miss showers or thunderstorms. Increasing humidity-haze. Light NW-NNW winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s at the highest elevations to mid-upper 80s ( hotter south and southwest toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Haze with areas of valley fog. Light winds. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in cooler valleys to the mid 60s to low 70s ( mildest exposed mid elevation ridges ).
Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Continued hot. A chance of hit-miss showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Generally light winds outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s in upper elevations to the middle to upper 80s ( hotter toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
A steamy air mass will will support a daily chance for showers and downpours in thunderstorms from Sunday through next week and the final days of this month ( July 24-31 ).
Weather Discussion ( July 19-24 )
Thursday Evening Update
Drier air allowed for a relatively large day-night temp spread during Thursday, with AM MINS in the 50s within mountain valleys and afternoon MAXS in the 80s.
The official temperatures for Clintwood featured a 30 degree temp spread between 57 degrees Thursday AM and 87 degrees in the PM.
Summer Sunset From High Knob Meadow – Elevation 4223 feet
I took the above photograph in short-sleeves, but actually felt a little cool by the time I left with a near steady north breeze and temperatures around 70 degrees.
Due to moisture evaporation from the ground & vegetation it is difficult to officially break 90 degrees across most of Wise and Dickenson counties, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif and near Cumberland Gap NHP in Lee County where wetter summer conditions have prevailed.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
A couple more days will have a chance to make a run for 90 in the lower-middle elevations, but eventually clouds and an increase in showers-storms will take its toll and hold temperatures back ( as humidity rises to make it steamy ).
Conditions are different to the south, into the Great Valley, where much drier ground has allowed the Tri-Cities to rack up the 90+ degree days during Summer 2016.
No surprise given 19.62″ of total precipitation this year in the Tri-Cities, with 3.71″ during June 1 to July 21, versus more than 31.00″ in the City of Norton ( around 10.00″ during June 1-July 21 ) and around 40.00″ in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif.
Previous Discussion
Thunderstorms that formed above South Fork Gorge and Maple Gap of the High Knob Massif on Tuesday afternoon turned severe as they moved off the high country into Natural Tunnel State Park & parts of the Great Valley.
Water Reflections On Upper Norton Reservoir of High Knob Massif ( July 19 )
A nice air mass; although, still somewhat humid & hazy, lingered amid the high country with afternoon temperatures within the lower to middle 70s above 3200 feet in the High Knob Massif.
Sunflower ( Helianthus spp. ) In Upper Elevations of High Knob Massif
It is a blessing to have a place where one can photograph Turk’s-cap and Canada ( Lilium canadense ) lilies while listening to the croaks of Northern Ravens ( Corvus corax ) and a couple dozen or more species of Wood Warblers ( along with many more species ).
Turk’s-cap Lilies ( Lilium superbum ) Bloom In High Country – July 19, 2016
Temperatures on Wednesday ( July 20 ) varied from mid 70s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the lower to middle 80s in Norton-Wise and Clintwood ( 86 degrees officially at 1560 feet elevation in Clintwood ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feetBlack Mountain MesoNET – Hottest Part Of Day ( MAX 77.9 degrees at 4031 feet )
Although stream levels are seasonally low, the woods remained damp when I was out on Tuesday ( July 19 ) with fungi growing in numerous places. June-July rainfall totals across the High Knob Massif have generally varied from 10.00″ to 13.00″, with around 10.00″ measured at the base in the City of Norton.
Gem Studded Puffballs ( Lycoperdon spp. ) In High Knob Massif ( July 19, 2016 )
Focus is now on the hottest temperatures of 2016 during Thursday-Friday ( July 21-22 ) before increasing humidity levels likely cause increased build-ups of clouds over the mountains this weekend into next week, some of which will develop into showers & booming thunderstorms with gully washing downpours of rain ( as has been the pattern of this summer in the Cumberland Mountains ).
*Thunderstorms that form amid unseasonably hot air typically generate booming thunder ( i.e., dangerous lightning ) and have downpours of gully washing rainfall. Should clouds and storms not develop in coming days, heating would be more intense and temperatures higher ( even atop the high country ).
European 51-Member Ensemble 500 MB MEAN Height Forecast – Days 1 to 5
The signal for a return of showers & downpours in thunderstorms shows up well on the 51-Member European Ensembles with a retro-gression of the highest 500 MB heights toward the west next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble 500 MB MEAN Height Forecast – Days 6-10
Although conditions remain steamy and plenty warm-hot enough, the hottest air eases ( especially in places impacted by more clouds and showers-thunderstorms ).
European 51-Member 850 MB MEAN Temp Anomalies Forecast – Days 1 to 5
While remaining warmer than average, the hottest air and largest temperature anomalies retrogress westward and become centered upon the Rockies and Inter-Mountain West and West Coast during next week ( July 26-30 ).
European 51-Member 850 MB MEAN Temp Anomalies Forecast – Days 6 to 10
Meanwhile, time will tell if highest elevations can break 80 degrees for the first time this year and if middle elevations, and hollows north of the High Knob Massif, can break the 90 degree mark for the first time this year ( and for the first time officially since back in Summer 2012 ).
Wise has not officially reached 90 degrees since back on July 1, 2012 with MAXIMUM temperatures for recent years including:
Wise National Weather Service Station Highest Annual Temperature
85 degrees in 2013 84 degrees in 2014 86 degrees in 2015
The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Marginal Risk For Severe Thunderstorm Development From 8:00 AM Monday To 8:00 AM Wednesday
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Monday To 8 AM Tuesday ( July 18-19 )Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Tuesday To 8 AM Wednesday ( July 19-20 )
Remainder Of Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy with hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. NNW-NE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the lower 70s to the lower 80s ( coolest in upper elevations and hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Chance of a hit-miss evening shower or storm then becoming mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light SW-W winds along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from mid-upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s ( coolest in mountain valleys having little to no fog formation ).
Sunday Afternoon
Partly sunny. Chance of a hit-miss shower or downpour in a thunderstorm. Winds SSE-SSW generally less than 10 mph outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from the 70s at highest elevations to the low-middle 80s ( warmer south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy. Chance of a hit-miss shower or storm. Areas of valley fog. Wind SSW-WSW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps mostly in the 60s to near 70 degrees ( around 60 degrees in cooler mountain valleys ).
Monday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW-W winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts along mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 70s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter to the south into the Great Valley and Tri-Cities ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Hazy with areas of fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Winds WSW to WNW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mountain ridges. Humid and mild with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Development of a coast-to-coast heat wave is expected by late this week into this weekend ( July 21-24 ) with the hottest conditions of the summer season. Local MAXS will depend upon cloud formation over the mountains and any showers or storms that might be able to form. Stay tuned for updates on this event.
Weather Discussion ( July 16-19 )
Abundant clouds along with a few showers & downpours in thunderstorms are being observed Saturday ( July 16 ) as a weak boundary approaches the Cumberland Mountains.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
A MAX temperature of 82.2 degrees in Clintwood quickly fell back to 69.6 degrees as a thunderstorm, with a brief downpour, passed over the weather station around 4:20 PM Saturday ( July 16 ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
Temperatures have held in the 70s during the day above 2600 feet, especially in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.
European Ensembles MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies At 8 AM Saturday – July 16
Although temperatures have been plenty warm, true heat has been escaped so far amid July in the mountains with enough rainfall to hold the hottest air at bay.
Official Wise NWS Station – Layton Gardner Observer at UVA-Wise – Elevation 2520 ftBlack Mountain MesoNET – Elevation 4031 Feet
MAX July 1-15 temperatures were in the 70s to middle 80s at elevations above 2500 feet, with rainfall totals of 4.00″ to 5.00″+ in the High Knob Massif area. This included the City of Norton where 4.64″ of rain ( 30.98″ in 2016 ) had been measured through the morning of July 16.
Official Tri-Cities Climate Data For July 1-15, 2016
Note how the lack of widespread significant rain, by contrast, has enhanced heating amid the Tri-Cities of northeastern Tennessee, in combination with lower elevations, so far during July ( above ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
In the short-term disturbances riding around the periphery of the hottest air will continue to hold the heat at bay, with the next best chance of organized thunderstorms coming into or close to the area by Monday into Tuesday.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Monday To 8 AM Tuesday
Focus then shifts toward a pattern that will attempt to spread true heat into the mountains by later next week amid a coast-to-coast heat wave.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 1-5
This has been well forecast far in advance by the European Model, with its 51-Member Ensemble MEAN showing how the heat spreads coast-to-coast by the 6-10 day forecast period of July 22-26.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 6-10
The magnitude of local heating, as so true of the mountains, will be dependent upon cloud formation and any showers or storms that might develop. Less clouds and showers = more heat, as does drier ground = more heat ( so places with drier ground relative to other sites will tend to heat up more ).
