My Forecast For Today ( April 5 )

ALERT For Widespread Freezing Conditions Overnight Into Tuesday Morning With Unseasonably Cold Wind Chills At Mid-Upper Elevations – Another Hard Freeze In Mountain Valleys Tuesday Night-Wednesday AM

*Low relative humidity this afternoon will increase the risk of fires ( although winds will be diminishing ).  While it is against the law to burn outdoors until after 4 PM in the state of Virginia, it would be best NOT to burn anything until significant precipitation falls across the region.

A prolonged period of wintry cold, with an accumulating snow potential, is being monitored for late week into this weekend.  Significant snow will be possible in upper elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Cloudy.  Turning unseasonably cold.  Chance for a few flurries ( mainly along the upslope side of the mountains ).  N winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  Wind N at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures dropping into mid-upper 10s at the highest elevations, with widespread 20s at middle-lower elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( milder in lower elevations to the south toward the Tri-Cities ).  Winds chills dropping into the single digits and 10s, with sub-zero chill factors in gusts on highest ridges.

This Afternoon

Sunny.  Deep blue skies & unseasonably cold.  N-NE winds diminishing to 10 mph or less.  Temperatures varying from the 30s in upper elevations to the 40s in low-mid elevations  ( mid-upper 40s in Norton-Wise ) along & north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( milder 50s south & southwest amid lower elevations of the Powell, Clinch, Holston river valleys toward the Tri-Cities ).

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Unseasonably cold.  A large vertical temperature spread developing between frosty valleys and milder but windy middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.  ESE-SSE winds increasing into the overnight-morning to 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures in the 30s, or rising into the 30s following any evening drops, along exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus.  Temps falling through the 20s within mountain valleys.  Wind chills in the 20s on upper elevation ridges.

Weather Discussion ( April 2-5 )

A very active, but continued drier than normal, weather pattern will be turning increasingly wintry heading into late week and the upcoming weekend.

Wind gusts during the early weekend reached 40-50+ mph with up to 17% of Wise County ( on the AEP Network ) out of electricity at one point due to damaging gusts.  A continuation of a very windy pattern from March, but now with an increasingly cold turn.

The above graphic is a rough generalization of snow that fell during the great April 2-5 snowstorm in 1987.  Snow depths reached 22″ to 24″ in Clintwood ( 33.8″ of total fall measured at Clintwood 1 W ), with 36″ in the City of Norton at the Norton Water Plant ( measured by Gary Hampton ).

A mean snow depth of 4 feet was reported by electrical engineer Carl Henderson, at the WSBN-TV PBS transmitter station atop the Eagle Knob of the High Knob Massif ( Blue Ridge Public Television ).  Snow drifts of 5-10 feet occurred in exposed locations.  Total snow fall was more than 3-4 feet in the Norton to High Knob Massif area since significant settlement and some sub-snow surface melting occurred during this prolonged upslope event.

Anyone remembering the 1987 snow event, or many other April falls of snow, will not doubt that snow can fall amid the mountains during this time of year.

With 28 years of records, in fact, the mean April snowfall atop the High Knob Massif has been around 7″ with only 4 out of 28 April’s not having measurable snow ( meaning it is more common to have than not to have snow accumulate during April atop the massif ).

The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles are showing that the DAY 3-7 forecast period, from Thursday through this weekend, is looking particularly cold with true winter conditions developing beneath an anomalously deep eastern USA upper air trough ( late season winter cold ).

The MEAN 850 MB temperature during the DAY 3-7 period has the 0 degrees Celsius ( 32 F ) line south across the Great Smokies in the southern Appalachians, with around -2 C or upper 20s ( Fahrenheit ) air over the High Knob Massif area  ( that is the MEAN for the DAY 3-7 period ).  In other words, this is air that would be more typical of mean temperatures observed during the winter ( December-February ).

Higher sun angles at this time of year will tend to generate higher day-time temperatures, of course, with an air mass like this verses the low sun angle winter months; however, the fact remains that this will be MUCH below average for April and be cold enough to easily support snow at higher elevations.

It is too soon to yet determine actual snowfall totals, but the European Model has consistently been heavier across the southern Appalachians than the GFS Model ( above ).

Meanwhile, the focus is on unseasonably cold air and the need for you to protect any tender young plants that you may have already put out ( hopefully none to few ).  Most native plants, such as our ephemeral wildflowers, will be able to with-stand the cold as MANY past events like the April 1987 period have been factored into their DNA.

An unseasonably cold Tuesday ( today ) will naturally lead into another hard freeze in mountain valleys tonight, with temperatures falling through the 20s ( coldest valleys could dip into the 10s if mixing from increasing winds above does not disrupt nocturnal temperature inversion formation ).

Meanwhile, following any evening drop, temperatures will tend to rise into the overnight-morning of Wednesday as winds veer ESE-SW and increase in speed along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges ( enhancing a vertical temperature spread between valleys and ridges ).

Showers, with a chance for thunderstorms, develop late Wednesday into Thursday in advance of the big chill down that begins late Thursday into Friday AM.

Rainfall remains needed, following a much drier than normal pattern during the past 5 weeks.  Surges of low dewpoint air, such as observed today ( Tuesday ), tend to enhance the danger of fires.  So please do not burn.

Have a great Tuesday. 

My Forecast For This Weekend

ALERT For Widespread Freezing Conditions Developing Saturday Night Into Sunday AM With Unseasonably Cold Wind Chill Factors On Exposed Middle-Upper Elevation Mountain Ridges

*A Freeze Will Also Be Possible In Mountain Valleys That Have Calm Winds During Sunday Night-Monday AM As Strong SW Winds Develop Across Mid-Upper Elevation Ridges ( Caution Advised For Strong SW Winds At High Elevations, Mainly Above 3000 feet Into Monday AM ).

Overnight Into Saturday Morning

 Mostly cloudy.  A chance for sprinkles, with a period of light rain & showers to the southeast toward the TN-NC border.  Turning colder.  Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temps dropping into lower 30s at the High Knob Massif summit level by morning, with 40s at middle-lower elevations below 2700 feet.

Saturday Afternoon

Partly sunny.  A period of mostly cloudy skies possible.  Windy.  Winds WSW-W at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Chilly with temperatures varying from upper 30s to low 40s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the lower-middle 50s ( milder south toward the Tri-Cities and locally in downslope locations of the Russell-Levisa Fork basins ).  Wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s along upper elevation mountain ridges.

*A period of enhanced winds along and behind a cold front will occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  Gusts of 30-50 mph will be possible during this time.  Caution Is Advised.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A period of clouds with a chance for a valley sprinkle or light rain shower and upper elevation flurry or light snow shower.  Turning colder with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear by morning.  Winds becoming NW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures dropping into the upper 10s to low 20s at highest elevations to the middle-upper 20s to around 30 degrees.  Wind chills in the single digits & 10s along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Wind chills in the upper 10s & 20s on middle elevation ridges.

Sunday Afternoon

Sunny & cold for the season.  Winds becoming SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s-lower 40s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 40s to middle 50s.  Unseasonably cold wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s at highest elevations.

*Updated At 12:15 AM Monday

Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Mostly clear.  A large vertical temperature difference developing between mountain valleys with calm winds and middle-upper elevation mountain ridges with strong winds.  SSW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, developing into the overnight-morning on mid-upper elevation ridges, especially at elevations above 2500-2700 feet.

Temperatures varying from 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys to readings in the 40s, or rising into the 40s, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.

The strongest SW winds are expected to be mainly above 2500 to 2700 feet overnight into Monday morning, with 30-40+ mph gusts being possible along mountain ridges.  Wind speeds will increase with mixing at middle-lower elevations, below 2700 feet, into the day ahead of and along an approaching cold front.

 *Another widespread, hard freeze is expected into Tuesday Morning amid another period with very cold wind chills for this time of year ( especially at middle to upper elevations ).

A major, winter-like blast of cold air with a snowfall potential is looking likely by late this week into next weekend.  Stay tuned for details.

Weather Discussion – Colder Pattern

Although most hate to hear it, a winter-like jet stream pattern is taking shape across North America with renewal of western USA ridging-eastern USA troughing in the upper air flow regime.

While up-down temperature variations will continue, it is clear that the pattern heading through next week and well into April is looking to be colder than average with even a few chances for snow in the mountains ( an anomalous for this time of year pattern that, as past climatology shows, may eventually generate some significant snowfall – at higher elevations, especially, of course ).

This was the pattern that I expected for March; however, that got side-tracked by a number of factors including development of an anomalous sub-tropical cut-off low and blocking Atlantic ridge as well as continued pulses of wave activity over the Arctic following an anomalously strong Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.

A record dry to one of the driest March’s ( depending upon the location ) on record got the pollen season off to an early start and has early spring flowering species running some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule.  Repeated bouts of significant cold upcoming will, no doubt, be detrimental to some of these early blooming species.

Many native ephemeral wildflower species, like this lovely Rue-anemone above, will not be hurt and are use to cold as well as being covered up by spring falls of snow.

The pattern shown at the start of April, with ridging over both coasts of the USA ( above ) and cold air in the middle diving south and southeast ( below ) is forecast to become more intense with expansive troughing across the eastern USA during the next 10 days or more.

This is shown well by the 51-Member European Ensemble group where the MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies become stronger and more intense from Days 1-5 into Days 6-10.

This is very impressive, especially for a 51-Member MEAN, with troughing below making any winter period proud.  At this time of year the cold air will be late season, modified, but still very significant ( especially with respect to early spring warmth observed by day during March ).

A rough idea of how cold it will get, in the MEAN, is given by looking at the 51-Member Ensemble group’s 850 MB temps and their departures from normal ( in colors ).

During the next 10 days the 32 degree ( 0 degree Celsius ) line at 850 MB hovers over, or near, southwestern Virginia with mean temperature departures being 10 degrees ( F ) or more below average ( in the MEAN ).

In reality, some members of the 51-Ensemble group are much colder and some warmer than others, with the above being the MEAN of all averaged together during each 5-day period.  Thus, one has to also figure that with intervals of warm air advection some of the cold spells will be well below the mean of departures shown.

The Bottom Line – An early start to spring in March is going to be stopped during the next 1-2 weeks as mean temperatures turn much below average.

While up-down temperature variations, both day-to-night and between days, are expected to continue the forecast pattern features colder than average temps and the potential for certain cold surges to be very significant ( with even some snow in the mountains ).

Stay tuned for updates as daily weather variations are worked out as time passes.

Have a great Weekend.

My Forecast For Today ( April 1 )

ALERT For Strong Winds ( And Wind Driven Rain ) Continues Overnight Along Mountain Ridges Above 2700 Feet ( Gusts Of 30-40+ MPH ).  Locally Strong Gusts Will Be Possible At Lower-Middle Elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Showers & thunderstorms.  Some storms could be strong.  Moderate to heavy rainfall at times.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges & plateaus.  Unseasonably mild.  Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Mid-Morning Through This Afternoon

Showers & storms ending.  Becoming partly sunny.  Winds becoming WSW-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Mild but turning cooler toward sunset.  MAX temperatures from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

 Increasing clouds.  A chance for rain developing.  Turning colder.  Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.  Temps dropping into lower 30s at the High Knob Massif summit level by morning, with 40s at middle-lower elevations below 2700-3000 feet.

*There is a small chance that rain could mix with or turn to snow at the summit level of the High Knob Massif overnight-Saturday morning as air turns colder.  Stay tuned for updates.

Weather Discussion ( March 31-April 1 )

A ROARING close to the month of March, with strong S-SW wind gusts of 40-50+ mph being common during Thursday, also featured a band of much needed evening showers & storms finally arriving to wet the mountain landscape.

Thursday PM maximums again varied significantly from 50s to mid-upper 60s in Norton-Wise and Sandy Ridge upward into the High Knob Massif verses middle 70s to the northeast amid strong downslope flow, into the Russell Fork basin, from Pound-Haysi.

Nice mountain wave clouds developed through the day along the High Knob Massif, with a break before evening showers-storms revealing singular and stacked lenticular wave forms.

March looks to have ended as the driest on record in the City of Norton, with 1.62 ( the preliminary tally ) of total precipitation being well below the previous driest of 2.10″ observed during March 2003.

March ended as the 4th driest on record in Clintwood, with 1.54″ of total precipitation being measured.

*National Weather Service sites ended the recording period during the morning ( 7:00 AM in Clintwood and 9:00 AM in the City of Norton ).

I have continued my alert for strong SW winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges overnight where wind driven rain will also fall moderate-heavy at times.

*Up to 0.60″ to 0.75″ of rain has fallen, as of 1:30 AM Friday, in the Big Cherry Lake basin of the High Knob Massif with the first wave of rainfall.  A second wave will arrive during the next hour, with a final chance for local downpours along-ahead of a cold front moving across Kentucky into the morning.

As the first wave of rain moves east a second wave will be lifting northeast out of Tennessee along the Cumberland Mountains during the mid-late overnight period.

The forecast setting heading into tonight and Saturday morning remains a little uncertain, with the NAM Model group developing another significant wave of rainfall over the area as colder air arrives from the northwest.

The NAM forecast’s a significant wave of rainfall to move northeast along the Cumberland Plateau and Cumberland Mountains tonight into Saturday morning ( note the 12-hour change in amounts between 8 PM and 8 AM ).

Stay tuned for updates on this potential.

For those heading to the NASCAR Race in Martinsville it is looking like a windy, cooler Saturday as showers give way to drier conditions into the afternoon.

Sunday should be nice, but seasonally chilly.

Have a great TGIF.

My Forecast For Today ( March 31 )

ALERT For Strong SSE to SSW Winds Overnight Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations

A strong pressure gradient will drive strong winds across the mountains through today.  Waves of showers, with lightning-thunder will impact the area into Friday.  The strongest wave is currently looking to arrive by late Thursday night into the early overnight hours of Friday, with possible strong to locally severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall ( especially along-west of the Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau ).

Overnight Into This Morning

Increasing clouds.  Windy across mid-upper elevations.    SSE-S winds 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).

This Afternoon

A chance for showers, with possible thunder and brief downpours.  Windy.  SSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet.  SSW-SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to 60s in Norton-Wise ( around 70 degrees amid downslope sites of the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).

Tonight Into Friday Morning

Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely.  Some storms could be strong to locally severe.  Local downpours.  Windy.  SSW to SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts.  Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

Showers, with possible thunder, will remain likely Friday ahead and along a strong cold front.  Much colder air will pour into the mountains overnight Friday into Saturday morning with temps dropping into the 30s to lower 40s on WNW-NW winds along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

Weather Discussion ( March 30-31 )

A frosty cold morning greeted mountain valleys on Thursday with widespread MINS in the 20s to low 30s.

The official MIN reached 28 degrees in Clintwood, with low-mid 20s in some of the mid-upper elevation mountain valleys in the High Knob Massif area.  Huge 45-50 degrees temperature rises followed into the afternoon as increasingly strong, gusty SSE-S winds mixed downward across the entire area ( the PM MAX reached 74 degrees in Clintwood for a 46 degree rise ).

Thursday PM maximums reached the 60s in Norton-Wise and the ridge communities across central Wise and southern Dickenson counties ( with 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain ).  This was in contrast to the lower-middle 70s within downslope communities from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi and Grundy.

Floral species continue to run some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule, and in line with some of the warmer springs of past years.

The weather focus tonight is on strong winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus, with wind speeds increasing through the evening into the overnight.

Wind gusts of 30-40+ mph have been common above 2700 feet.

Sustained wind speeds of 15-30 mph are common at mid-upper elevations, to contrast with some valleys having light winds.

Forecast models continue to be varied with respect to rainfall amounts today into Friday, with the NAM group remaining more aggressive and heavier with totals verses the GFS and European models.

The high resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( below ) remains strongest with heavy rains from the Cumberland Mountains W-SW across eastern Kentucky and much of Tennessee.

The GFS Model ( below ) remains light, by comparison.

The midnight run of the HRRR Model has a weakening line of showers, with possible thunder, into the area by early to mid-afternoon today.

Redevelopment to the west, with severe thunderstorms, is expected during mid-late afternoon with that activity then moving E-NE into the mountains by the early overnight of Friday ( timing, of course, being subject to change a little ).

The latest update, just released, by the SPC has the entire area within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed by tonight into early hours of Friday.

Have a great Thursday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 30 )

ALERT For Strong SSE-SSW Winds Developing During Wednesday Night Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations

Heavy frost with a hard freeze will occur in mountain valleys overnight into this morning.  Low temperatures within the 20s to  low 30s will be common in mountain valleys.  Exposed mountain ridges-plateaus will remain frost free as winds increase at high elevations and mix downward to middle elevation ridges during the overnight into this morning.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE to SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on milder, exposed mountain ridges.

This Afternoon

A mix of sun and high clouds.  Warmer.  SSE winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from 50s amid upper elevations in the High Knob Massif to the low 70s in downslope locations ( mid-upper 60s Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Thursday Morning

Increasing clouds.  Windy across mid-upper elevations.  SSE-S winds 10 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).

Showers and thunderstorms, with possible downpours, will become likely during Thursday.  Waves of rain could produce heavy rainfall amounts during the Thursday-Saturday period.  Stay tuned for updates on this developing storm system.

Weather Discussion ( March 29-30 )

Upslope clouds into predawn hours of Tuesday broke enough for some frost to form in colder locations as temperatures dropped into the 30s.

A seasonably chilly Tuesday featured abundant sunshine and beautiful blue skies.  Afternoon temperatures varied from 40s across upper elevations, above 3000 feet, to lower-middle 50s in Norton-Wise and upper 50s in Pound-Clintwood.

The day ended with dry air and a nice sunset.

This set the stage for a large vertical temperature spread to develop tonight, with 1:00 AM temps at 32 degrees or lower amid colder valleys verses low-mid 40s on exposed middle-upper elevation mountain ridges.

Increasing winds along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges overnight will mix downward across the entire area today, with strong wind speeds developing by tonight into Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the next storm system.

Following a much drier than average March, the potential for the first heavy precipitation ( rainfall ) event since the middle-end of February is on tap for the Thursday-Saturday period; although, variations of rain amounts are substantial depending upon the forecast model.  So questions remain as to what “basin-average” amounts will be.  Local variations are likely with any convection ( i.e., thunderstorms ).

*A factor on the side of the NAM, at least from a low-level forcing perspective, is the strong S-SW wind field that will be developing to enhance orographics.  Thus, heavy rain will be likely IF moisture transport into the area is not limited by upstream convection.

The NAM Model group is much heavier with rainfall amounts than the U.S. GFS Model.  Given the recent tendency for dryness during March this will be interesting to see which model verifies.

The convective pattern will also be a factor, and is difficult to predict accurately in advance, with strong-severe storms currently expected west and south of the Appalachians that could influence moisture transport into the mountains.

An enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with possible tornadoes, over the already water logged lower Mississippi Valley favors the lower rain numbers of the GFS-European models into Friday for the mountains.  However, this will need to be updated as the actual rain-storms develop.

Stay tuned for updates as new model runs come out today.

Have a great Wednesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 29 )

Increasing low clouds will prevent frost in most places along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide into the overnight-morning hours of Tuesday.  Patchy frost will be possible lee of the mountains with less cloudiness, and locally amid valleys should current clouds dissipate before sunrise.

A chance for mountain valley frost will become more significant during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with mostly clear skies across the entire area ( ridges will be milder with increasing air flow developing into Wednesday morning ).

Overnight Into Tuesday Morning

Increasing low clouds, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  Chance of a lower elevation sprinkle or upper elevation snow flurry.  NNW-N winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps dropping into 30s to around 40 degrees ( around 30 degrees at the summit of High Knob Massif ).  Wind chills in the upper 10s and 20s along highest mountain ridges.

Mid-Morning Tuesday Through The Afternoon

Decreasing clouds.  Beautiful blue skies into the afternoon.  Seasonably cool.  NNW to NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 40s upper elevations to the 50s to lower 60s ( 54-59 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE to SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on milder, exposed mountain ridges.

**An ALERT For Strong Winds Will Be Likely For The Period From Wednesday Night Through Thursday.  SSE-SW winds of 20-40+ mph will become possible during this time.

Weather Discussion ( March 28-29 )

Air turned much cooler behind an overnight cold front that produced brief downpours of rain, with lightning-thunder, across much of Wise, Dickenson, and Buchanan counties during the predawn hours of Monday.

Temperatures became coolest into the mid-morning to mid-day period of Monday, with low-mid 40s in Norton-Wise and Sandy Ridge and 30s amid upper elevations of the High Knob Massif.

*At the same time as temps were in the low-mid 30s in the High Knob Massif, air temperatures were in the 50s within the Great Valley of northeastern Tennessee ( Tri-Cities southwest ) on Monday.

Andrew Greear, Superintendent of the Norton Water Plant, reported 0.28″ of rainfall into early Monday ( measured by Joe Carter ).  A total of 0.15″ officially fell in Clintwood.

This brought the March 2016 total to 1.62″ in the City of Norton, with 12.76″ during the year to date ( January 1 to March 28 ).

Gary Hampton, Superintendent of the Big Stone Gap Water Plant, reported 0.63″ of rainfall at Big Cherry Dam during the March 24-28 period.

This brought the March 2016 total to 2.18″ at Big Cherry Lake Dam, with 17.64″ during the year to date ( January 1 to March 28 ).

The cloud deck began to break up and dissipate by early afternoon, which allowed temperatures to rise into lower 40s atop the lofty High Knob Massif and the upper 40s to lower 50s in Norton-Wise.

Following a gorgeous sunset with nearly cloud free skies, a redevelopment of low clouds occurred on northerly upslope flow in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif during evening hours of Monday.

This redevelopment of clouds on upslope flow will help prevent frost in most locations into the overnight, along- north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.

*There is not yet much vegetation that can be harmed in this area by sub-freezing temperatures, except for anything someone might have planted outdoors that is not native to this area.

Following a seasonally chilly Tuesday the focus tonight will be on a much better chance for mountain valley frost, with a continuation of mostly clear-clear skies.  Exposed mid to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus will tend to be frost free as mixing increases overnight into Wednesday.

The next important weather system will allow March to end more Lion-like as rain and thunderstorms develop Thursday into Thursday Night.  This system will have the potential to generate some heavy rainfall amounts, with strong winds developing across the mountains by Wednesday Night into Thursday ( when an ALERT may be needed ).

Have a great Tuesday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 28 )

Remainder Of This Afternoon

Partly to mostly sunny.  Gusty.  WNW-NW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from lower 40s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the middle to upper 50s ( upper 40s to lower 50s in Norton-Wise ).

Tonight Into Tuesday Morning

Partly-mostly clear during early evening then increasing clouds, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.  Chance of a lower elevation light rain shower-sprinkle & a upper elevation snow flurry.  NW to NNW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, on upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures dropping into the 30s to around 40 degrees ( around 30 degrees at summit of High Knob Massif and in any valleys that can remain clear into the overnight ).  Wind chills in the upper 10s and 20s along highest mountain ridges.

Mid-Morning Tuesday Through The Afternoon

Decreasing clouds.  Beautiful blue skies into the afternoon.  Seasonably cool.  NNW to NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts.  Temperatures varying from the 40s upper elevations to the 50s to lower 60s ( 55-60 degrees in Norton-Wise ).

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear ( some high clouds possible ).  Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges.  SSE-SSW winds increasing into the overnight to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temps varying from frosty 20s to lower 30s in colder valleys ( with calm winds ) to the 40s on the milder, exposed mountain ridges.

Easter Weekend Forecast ( March 26-27 )

*Updated Below For Monday

A two species for one shot above features the first Rue-anemone of the season in bloom beside of a Wild Geranium leaf ( I have not yet found any Geraniums in bloom ).  The Rue-anemone possesses tiny, mitten-like leaves ( the flowers being very small as well ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

A change in my previous forecast from last night is to increase cloudiness for locations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide tonight, with upsloping northerly flow.  Eventually, cloudiness will be giving way to clearing by the predawn to post-sunrise period on Saturday morning.  This will act to reduce the significance of any frost that may form before sunrise.

Although Friday afternoon skies became partly cloudy, the tendency was for clouds to reform and bank up against the sprawling High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide as  sunset approached ( with light northerly upslope winds ).

Meanwhile, partly-mostly clear skies in places downslope of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( from river valleys of the Clinch & Powell into the Great Valley ) tonight will enhance the chance for valley frost in locations away from major rivers & lakes ( where fog will be more likely ).

Saturday Afternoon

A mix of sun and clouds is expected with warmer temps than observed Friday as winds shift SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph.  Afternoon temperatures are expected to vary from 50s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif, where more low clouds will develop with southerly upslope flow, to 60s in Norton-Wise and 70-75 degree readings at lower elevations in the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ( Pound-Grundy ).

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

A significant vertical temperature spread is likely to develop beneath partly cloudy skies ( mostly high clouds )  as SSW-WSW winds begin increasing along upper elevation ridges ( 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts ).  Winds will remain calm in deep valleys and just breezy enough to keep the air mixed along exposed middle elevation ridges and plateaus.  Temperatures should vary from 30s to low 40s in the cooler valleys to 48-55 degrees along exposed mountain ridges.

*Updated at 3:00 AM Monday

Sunday Afternoon Into Monday Morning

A chance for strong-severe thunderstorms will exist west of the Appalachians during Sunday afternoon.  This will need monitoring for those traveling to the west, as well as locally via a possible line of thunderstorms approaching the mountains by late Sunday.

Clouds will be on the increase with a chance for afternoon showers giving way to a likely period of rain, with possible thunderstorms, during Sunday night into Monday morning.

Gusty SSE-SW winds are expected late Sunday PM-Sunday night, especially at the higher elevations.  Sunday PM temps will again vary widely from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A line of rain, with brief downpours, and local thunder will be moving across the Virginia-Kentucky border during the 3:00 to 4:30 AM period.

Temps will cool down significantly into Monday morning behind this front and dip to around freezing at the summit level of the High Knob Massif, with 40s across middle-lower elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif and the Tennessee Valley Divide ( the coolest conditions developing after sunrise into mid-morning on cold air transport ).

A cloudy, cold Monday follows with WNW-NW winds of 5-15 mph and temperatures that hold in 30s ( upper elevations ) and 40s ( middle elevations ) for much of the area along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.  Milder 50s are expected to the south-southeast.

Cloud bases will be low and upper elevations, above 3300-3500 ft, are likely to be obscured in dense fog during much of the day on WNW-NW upslope flow.

*Some flurries or light snow showers will even be possible at the upper elevations during Monday Night into Tuesday morning. 

Brief Look Ahead To Early April

While the remainder of March is expected to average near to somewhat above “normal” ( amid up-down temps ), very strong signals now exist ( as I have noted for a long time ) for unseasonably cold air to move into the central-eastern USA during the first week of April.

This would be winter-like coldness and could also feature a chance for snow.  Stay tuned for more details.

Have a great Easter Holiday Weekend.

My Forecast For Today ( March 25 )

Heavy frost will form tonight in mountain valleys.  A hard freeze will occur in colder valleys with a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures overnight into Saturday morning.  Fog or patchy fog will be possible along major river and lakes in lower elevations.

Overnight Into This Morning

Showers, with a chance for thunder, decreasing overnight into morning.  Brief downpours possible through 4:00 AM.  Strong & gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning.  Turning cool.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to lower 50s ( coldest at highest elevations by morning and milder toward the Tri-Cities ).

Good Friday Afternoon

Becoming partly-mostly sunny.  Winds WNW-N at 5-15 mph. Cooler.  Temperatures varying from low-mid 40s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to the lower 60s below 2000 feet ( 50s in Norton-Wise & the ridge communities ).

Tonight Into Saturday Morning

Mostly clear.  Cold.  Light easterly winds on mid-elevation ridges & plateaus.  Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph along highest mountain ridges.  Large vertical temperature spread with 20s to lower 30s in colder mountain valleys to the 40s on milder, exposed mid-upper elevation ridges.

Weather Discussion ( March 24-25 )

Reference my 032416 Forecast for details on Thursday conditions.

Roaring SW winds at high elevations last night mixed downward, as expected, into middle and lower elevations during the day Thursday.  Beneath partly sunny skies this generated unseasonably warm conditions until clouds and showers developed into late afternoon.

PM temperatures peaked in the 60s to around 70 degrees in Norton-Wise and the Sandy Ridge communities.  Extremes varying from upper 50s to lower 60s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the mid-upper 70s in downslope locations of the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork basins.

As climatology dictates, the coolest conditions occurred amid SW Upslope flow while the warmest conditions developed on sinking air on SW downsloping.  This often generates up to 15-20 degrees of temperature difference between coolest and warmest places, with elevation differences, of course, playing a significant role.

PM wind gusts of 30-40+ mph were common across the area.

The High Knob Massif put on a nice show in between shower bands as orographic clouds capped high crestlines beneath mountain waves above.

Observe a nice capping pilatus layer of clouds engulfing highest elevations along the massif on strong and gusty SW upslope flow, as multiple mountain waves formed just above.

 Pollination and pollinators were seen to be increasing.

Dandelion ( Taraxacum officinale ) is a composite flower of the Asteraceae Family, with many individual flowers comprising the head.  It depends on both cross-pollination by insects and self-pollination.

*If no insects are present it can pollinate itself as the stigma grows upward through the anthers, and in this process acts to obtain pollen grains which stick to the style (  remember, stigma-style-ovary form the female parts while anthers-stamens form the male parts ).  The stigma then curls, as observed above, and can obtain pollen grains stuck to the style.

While self-pollination is acceptable, it is not preferred, since over time it will reduce the gene pool and threaten genetic diversity that is obtained and best supported by cross-pollination. 

Insects were observed with pollen grains on them from numerous different plant species ( as the insect world is beginning to awaken from a long winter slumber ).

The focus is on an active weather pattern that closes out March and opens April, with a trend ( as I have previously noted ) for colder than average conditions amid a general up-down temperature regime.

The potential for anomalous cold of more prolonged nature will be possible by the first week of April.  Stay tuned!

Have a great Good Friday.

My Forecast For Today ( March 24 )

Showers & thunderstorms will become likely by late afternoon into early evening.  Some thunderstorms could be strong to locally severe, especially in places along & west of the High Knob Landform-Tennessee Valley Divide.  The main severe threat will be strong winds.  Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any watches or warnings which may be needed.

S-SW winds will increase this afternoon into this evening, along and ahead of a cold front, with 30 to 40+ mph gusts becoming likely ( especially at mid-upper elevations ).

*SW winds are again strong tonight at highest elevations, with gusts between 40 and 50 mph reported atop the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain.  These strong winds will mix downward into middle-lower elevations today into this evening.

Overnight Into This Morning

Mostly clear early with some increasing high clouds toward morning.  Windy.  SSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle elevation ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet.  Winds SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 40+ mph, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet.  Temperatures in the 40s to low-mid 50s, except cooler in lower elevation valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds ( 30s in the colder valleys ).  Wind chills in the 30s, in gusts, along highest ridges.

This Afternoon Into Early Evening

Increasing clouds and winds.  A chance of showers, then showers & thunderstorm becoming likely by late PM into the early evening.  Some storms may be strong or locally severe.  S-SSW winds increasing to 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along mid elevation ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet.  SSW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, upper elevation mountain ridges.

Tonight Into Good Friday

Rain & thunderstorms tapering to showers overnight into morning.  Strong and gusty SW winds at 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, shifting WNW-NW & decreasing by morning.  Turning cooler overnight.  Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to the upper 40s to low 50s ( coolest at highest elevations by morning ).

A much cooler air mass will be felt Friday as temperatures hold in the 30s above 3200 feet, with 40s to lower 50s across lower-middle elevations ( 40s in Norton-Wise ).  The good news, winds will be relatively light to reduce the effect of wind chills.

Weather Discussion ( March 23-24 )

Reference my 032316 Forecast for details on ROARING winds.

Winds last night continued to ROAR up to around sunrise at highest elevations, with a decrease following by mid-day before occasional gustiness ruled the afternoon.

The trend at middle elevations featured a decrease before sunrise, with a redevelopment of gustiness during the day.

Gusty winds made it difficult, along with a 45 degree slope, to take the first Bloodroot in bloom that I have seen so far.

The weather focus today will be on an active cold front with a band of showers & thunderstorms moving east-northeast toward the mountains this afternoon.

Rainfall is needed with only 1.14″ so far this month in Clintwood.  Superintendent Gary Hampton, of the Big Stone Gap Water Plant, reports that 1.55″ has fallen this month at Big Cherry Lake Dam.  Far below average for the month of March.

*The January 1 to March 23 precip total being 17.01″ at Big Cherry Dam.

The GFS Model disagrees with the NAM Model and on this latest run is predicting less than 0.10″ of rainfall.  That would fit the dry pattern of March 2016, but is also in disagreement with the European 9 KM Model.

*The European Model predicts the heaviest rains to fall from Norton-Wise southwest along the VA-KY border, with lesser amounts toward the northeast over the Russell Fork Basin.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will be west of the mountains by early afternoon, with eastward progression to near the Virginia-Kentucky border by 6:00 PM give or take an hour or so for the lead band ( local development could occur in advance of the lead band, with showers ).

A secondary line, along and just ahead of the cold front, as noted above, will likely arrive by late Thursday Night into early hours of the overnight followed by a decrease by the predawn-sunrise period of Good Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight into Friday morning.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be issued as this line moves east across Kentucky-Tennessee toward the Appalachians this afternoon.

Have a great Thursday.