Category Archives: Today’s Forecast Archive

An Archive For My Forecast And Discussion

051420 Forecast

May 14, 2020Today's Forecast Archive, Uncategorizedadmin

Weather Headlines

*Warm and more humid conditions will offer a chance for hit-miss showers or thunderstorms through this weekend.

*A upper-level low will dominate weather conditions across the southern-central Appalachians through the upcoming work week.

**European Model_500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast_18-23 May 2020**

Interactive 500 MB Flow Field

Locally heavy to excessive rainfall amounts will be possible, but upper lows are notoriously difficult to predict exactly where bands forming around their swirling circulation will develop.

Waves rotating aloft around upper-level lows tend to support low-level convergence zones at the surface, with these being difficult to predict in advance of their development. Since it is impossible for air to go downward into the ground, low-level convergence mandates rising air with subsequent cooling and condensation to support precipitation formation.

If the upper low remains stationary from one day to the next, corridors that receive heaviest rain amounts during day 1 may again be impacted on day 2, especially if over terrain locations where tree leaves have fully matured and evapotranspiration is running at a maximum level to support a positive feedback for wetness.

If the upper low moves from one day to the next, the corridor that receives heaviest rainfall amounts also tends to move as the low-level convergence becomes focused, or enhanced, along a new corridor.

Interactive Surface Streamline Flow Field

The potential for heavy to excessive rainfall is enhanced if these upper-level low generated convergence zones (where air rises) phase with orographic forcing and become superimposed on air flow trajectories which are naturally forced to rise by terrain barriers.

Interactive 850 MB Flow Field

**NAM 12 KM Model_Total Rainfall Forecast_12z Saturday Run**

Large run-to-run model variations for any given spot indicates the uncertainty for a given spot, but persistent replication of heavy-excessive amounts indicates that some places will tend to get much more rain (with possible high water issues) than other locations this upcoming week.

**NAM 12 KM Model_Total Rainfall Forecast_18z Saturday Run**

NOWCasting is a favored term used to describe this type of forecast scenario, where heavy rain potential is best resolved once rain bands begin forming during any given day around the upper low.

**European Model_850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast_18-24 May 2020**

Near average to below average temperatures will occur mainly due to clouds and rainfall, impacting maximum temperature most relative to average.

050720 Forecast

May 7, 2020Today's Forecast Archiveadmin

Weather Headlines

Reference May 1989 Weather for a historic look at May cold.

*Another significant wave of rain will give way to much colder air Friday night into Saturday, with a change to snow and mixed precipitation.

*A dusting up to 2″ of snow accumulation will be possible, mainly at elevations above 3000 feet into early Saturday (locally higher amounts will be possible on peaks above 4000 feet).

Air temperatures will vary from upper 10s to lower 20s (with much colder wind chills along ridges) on highest peaks to lower 30s in warmer valleys.

Wind chill factors will drop into single digits above and below zero, especially in gusts, along highest mountain ridges during Friday night into Saturday AM. Bitterly cold for early May.

*Good radiational cooling conditions will allow coldest temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday to develop within mountain valleys, with widespread below freezing temperatures.

*An additional push of unseasonably cold air will again set the stage for more freezing to below freezing conditions centered on 12-13 May 2020.

050220 Forecast

May 2, 2020Today's Forecast Archiveadmin

Weather Headlines

ALERT For Waves Of Heavy Rainfall With The Potential For Locally Strong-Severe Thunderstorms

*Waves of heavy rainfall will impact the mountain region today, with the chance for locally strong to severe thunderstorms.

**Severe Thunderstorm Risk_8 AM Tuesday-8 AM Wednesday_5-6 May 2020**

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings which may be needed.

*The first wave of unseasonably cold air will impact the mountain area during Wednesday-Thursday AM of 5-6 May.

*A second, stronger wave of record-level cold air is expected to impact the mountain region by the upcoming weekend (centered on 9-10 May 2020).

Previous Statements

*A chilly dawn Saturday will give way to a much warmer afternoon. This welcomed break in the relentless wetness of 2020 should be enjoyed.

Update: Temperatures dropped below freezing in colder mountain valleys at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif, with low-mid 30s observed within colder middle to lower elevation valleys. A few specific minimums included 33 degrees on Hurricane Road (Wise Plateau), 36 degrees in City of Norton and 36 degrees at Clintwood 1 W. Certainly cold enough for areas of frost.

Reference my Research Focus on Big Cherry Basin for more information.

**Gorgeous Late Spring Afternoon In Wise_2 May 2020**

*This wet and stormy pattern will renew itself by Sunday night into Monday, and persist into much of next week. More significant to locally excessive rain will be likely (with placement of heaviest rains to be determined in coming days).

Interactive Doppler Radar

Although a rain shower can not be ruled Sunday afternoon, the best rain chances will develop Sunday evening into the overnight-early morning hours of Monday to mark the first wave of several to impact the soggy mountain landscape next week.

*An unseasonably cold pattern for early May is also being monitored for the potential of record low temperatures in the 7-10 day forecast period.

**European Ensemble Mean_500 MB Height Anomalies_6-11 May 2020**

Interactive 500 MB Flow Field_North America

*A classic setting for unseasonably cold temps, perhaps record cold, is being predicted to develop by the 51-member European Model ensemble mean.

**European Model_850 MB Temperature Anomalies_8 AM on 9 May 2020**

Timing and intensity is subject to change, of course, at this distance, but this has been a persistent trend and will be expected to develop toward the end of the first week of May or beginning of the second week (the above would create record cold temperatures on the morning of May 9).

Wet & Chilly Pattern In April 2020

April Precipitation Totals
(Ending 7-9 AM on 30 April)

Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif
12.40″

Big Cherry Lake Dam of High Knob Massif
11.59″

Robinson Knob-High Chaparral of High Knob Massif
11.46″

*City of Norton Water Plant
10.09″

*The wettest April on record since 1983, just beating the 10.07″ observed during April 1998. No records are available for what would have been the wettest April in 1977.

**Clintwood 1 W
8.68″

**The second wettest April on record at Clintwood 1 W (1964-present), just behind the 9.05″ observed during April 1998. A total of 8.17″ fell during April 1977 (mostly in the 3-5 April flood event).

***Wise (UVA-Wise)
8.63″

***The third wettest April on record in Wise behind the 9.24″ in April 1998 and the 9.59″ in April 1977 (record period 1956-present). The bulk of rain in 1977 fell during the great flood event of 3-5 April.

Up to 15.00″ of rainfall were estimated during the benchmark flood event of April 1977, with orographic enhancement in favored locations on SW air flow trajectories (High Knob Massif-Landform and localized portions of Tennessee Valley Divide).

Jonesville 3.1 WSW
8.09″

Total Precipitation – Fast Start To 2020

**Draining Big Cherry Basin – South Fork Gorge of Powell River**

Precipitation Totals: Ending AM of 1 May 2020

Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif
43.45″ (M)

Big Cherry Dam of High Knob Massif
41.49″

City of Norton Water Plant
34.79″

Jonesville 3.1 WSW
32.38″

Appalachia Lake Water Plant
32.26″

Clintwood 1 W
29.12″

Coeburn Filter Plant
28.66″

Wise (UVA-Wise)
28.13″

Long Ridge (Nora 4 SSE)
24.01″

A torrid precipitation pace, for the third consecutive year, has produced amounts within wetter portions of the High Knob Massif which have exceeded the long-term annual average for the state of Virginia!

The insane aspect, of course, it’s only taken 4 months. There are 8 more months to go!

Reference A Torrid Precipitation Pace for more information.

042720 Forecast

April 27, 2020Today's Forecast Archiveadmin

*Weather Headlines

ALERT For The Potential Of Heavy Rain Developing Late Wednesday Afternoon And Wednesday Night

Strong rises on streams will be likely Wednesday night into early Thursday if heavy rainfall develops, with flash flooding possible. Residents living or driving along streams and in low-lying, flood prone locations will need to remain alert for the possibility of rapid water level rises. Mud and rock slides will also be possible given antecedent wetness.

Significant rainfall is expected. This will continue to push April totals toward record levels, with amounts currently within the 10.00″ to 11.00″ range in wetter portions of the High Knob Massif (marking the third consecutive double digit precipitation month).

April totals of 6.00″ to 8.00″ have been widespread across the region surrounding the High Knob Massif, enhancing the risk of high water levels with any additional heavy and/or prolonged rainfall.

Interactive Doppler Radar

A couple of issues related to the next weather system will help determine rainfall amounts and potential for strong-severe convection.

**Severe Thunderstorm Risk Region_8 AM Wed to 8 AM Thur_29-30 April 2020**

Convective Outflow Boundary

A). A strong-severe line of thunderstorms moving across the Mississippi River Valley will dissipate into early Wednesday, with an outflow boundary being generated. Some models suggest redevelopment along this outflow boundary will focus west of the Virginia-Kentucky border while others predict it to become active toward the Tennessee-North Carolina border.

Interactive Surface Streamline Flow

Cold Front Becoming Parallel To Upper Flow

B). The tilt of an upper-level trough axis will become nearly parallel to the system cold front at the surface for a time late Wednesday into early Thursday, slowing down the eastward progression of the front and associated band of potentially heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

Interactive 500 MB Flow Field

Monday-Tuesday (27-28 April 2020)

**Lovely Spring Afternoon In Wise_27 April 2020**

Skies became clear toward morning, following some snowflakes that fell from late Sunday afternoon into the early overnight period on High Knob, marking the 5th event in April to produce at least some flakes (heavy snow fell at the start of April). More snow has fallen in April than during March 2020 (April has also been colder, especially by night, than March).

*A rapid drop in temperature is expected into this evening, especially in mountain valleys, with a large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys and exposed mountain ridges.

Big Cherry Basin
(An Appalachian Classic Cold Air Formation Basin)

Reference my focus on research for information about nocturnal cold air formation within classic Appalachian cold air collecting basins. These represent one end of a spectrum in contrast with thermal belts where coldest air is generated by advection and adiabatic upslope cooling.

Increasing clouds overnight will likely slow or reverse temperature drops in mountain valleys as readings rise on mountain ridges with increasing wind and warm air advection on SW-WSW flow (rising ridge temps).

Interactive 850 MB Flow Field

*A chance of localized showers Tuesday will give way to rain and thunderstorms Wednesday in advance of another upper-level low.

**NAM 12 KM Model_Total Rainfall Forecast**

*Air turns colder again on Thursday, with low clouds and showers (mixed snow at the highest elevations). Temperatures will again hover in the 40s, with 30s at highest elevations, in locations along and northwest to north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide. Wind chills will make conditions feel colder.

Upper-Level Low Pattern
(Above average precipitation)

The formation of upper-level lows is relatively common during the spring season, especially in patterns that possess repeatability.

**European Ensemble Mean_500 MB Anomaly Pattern_28 April to 3 May 2020**

Troughing in the mean, with individual upper-level lows, will continue to dominate the eastern USA through the first week of May 2020.

**European Ensemble Mean_500 MB Anomaly Pattern_2-7 May 2020**

Although temperature fluctuations will certainly occur, this type of pattern favors below average temperatures to continue in the mean into early May, along with above average precipitation.

**European Model_850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast_28 April-3 May 2020**

**European Model_850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast_2-7 May 2020**

A continuation of below average temperatures will be supported by a pattern that has developed with break-down of a strong polar vortex that dominated Winter 2019-20, keeping temps above average.

**Final Stratospheric Warming_Transition from Winter to Spring**

Mid-latitude cooling has been ongoing for a couple weeks, with the potential for a couple more weeks of below average temps across eastern North America which means (if it verifies) a slow development of spring at upper elevations (especially).

102919 Forecast

October 29, 20192019_10_Forecasts, Today's Forecast Archiveadmin

Halloween Headlines

ALERT For Strong S-SW Winds Today Shifting W-NW_Much Colder Air With Plunging Late PM And Evening Temps

A strong pressure gradient developing along and in advance of a potent cold front will increase winds across the mountains, beginning at high elevations on Wednesday and mixing downward into middle-lower elevations on Halloween. In addition, there will be a marginal risk that some thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds and hail. Orographic forcing will be activated with this system to also generate a heavy rainfall potential, especially within favored upslope locations along the High Knob Massif and Black Mountains.

ALERT For The Potential Of Strong-Severe Thunderstorm Development Ahead Of A Halloween Cold Front

**Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Risk Regions For Halloween**

**Storm Prediction Center Tornado Probability Within 25 Miles Of A Given Point**

**Storm Prediction Center Wind Damage Probability Within 25 Miles Of A Point**

*Strong winds will be driven by huge temperature anomalies between much above and below average conditions which develop pressure differences that form gradients to move air, as the atmosphere works vigorously to restore geostrophic equilibrium into Halloween.

**Temperature Anomalies Forecast By Halloween Morning_8 AM 31 October**

*Orographic Forcing is a multi-parameter phenomenon of the Climate System whose foundation is based upon three-dimensional terrain interactions with wind speed and direction, as well as all associated aspects of advection and fluxes. It is a dual phase phenomenon featuring positive and negative (inverse) phases possessing both high predictability (in terms of weather) and long-term statistical influence (in terms of climate) on the natural world.

*Showers develop by mid-day Wednesday. Rain may be heavy at times during the afternoon, and increasingly wind driven at upper elevations where orographic pilatus clouds will develop to generate dense, ground-level fog.

**NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast_2 PM Run Tuesday**

*Wind driven rain, with a chance of thunderstorms, will develop Wednesday night into Thursday. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected in advance of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall amounts are likely, with capping orographic feeder clouds at upper elevations to enhance the amount of rainfall reaching the surface in upslope locations (expect a prolonged period of dense, ground level fog, in orographic clouds, at upper elevations).

**NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast_8 PM Run Tuesday**

This will be the first system during Autumn 2019 to activate orographic forcing to any significant extent, with previous systems during September-October producing little variation in rainfall between the Tennessee Valley and mountains amid weak orographics. As is common during transitional seasons, mixed modes will remain possible with both convection and orographic forcing modes in operation which could act to skew precipitation amounts more than typically observed with only orographics and dynamical forcing.

*A significant fall of leaves are expected, especially at higher elevations where wind speeds will be strongest. Caution is advised on roadways across the area.

*A temperature crash will occur starting late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with widespread sub-freezing air temperatures and bitter wind chill factors. Rain could become mixed with sleet, snow, or freezing drizzle prior to ending, especially at higher elevations along the Cumberland-Allegheny Front and highest peaks of the Blue Ridge.

**A temperature drop of 35 to 45 degrees is expected between prefrontal warmth and invading cold by early Friday. Wind chills will drop into the 10s and 20s, except single digits to around 0 degrees on highest peaks by early Friday.

While 40+ degree temperature changes are common in mountain valleys between AM and PM readings, this will be the first system of Autumn 2019 to drive such a temperature drop across all locations within 12-18 hours, the first system to generate a widespread freeze, and the first system to drop wind chills on high peaks toward 0 degrees.

Colder November Weather Pattern

**European Model 850 MB Temperature Anomalies_Days 1-6**

Temperatures will turn colder at the dawn of November and this will be a pattern that will dominate the first 1-2 weeks of the new month, at least in the mean, with a trend toward cold conditions across the eastern USA.

**European Model 850 MB Temperature Anomalies_Days 5-10**

Persistent blocking supported by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures around Alaska will help to anchor a colder pattern downstream into the central-eastern portions of the USA.

Everything in the natural world can be modeled in wave form, including sea surface temp anomalies and all aspects related to the fluid atmosphere and climate system.

**European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies_Northern Hemisphere_Days 1-6**

Wavelengths around the Northern Hemisphere, and planet, follow the physics law formulated by Wien, with longer wavelengths developing in colder air at this time of year replacing the shorter wavelengths of the summer season.

This pattern is currently predicted to strengthen during the 5-10 day period. Stay tuned for later updates.

**European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies_Northern Hemisphere_Days 5-10**

101219 Forecast

October 12, 20192019_10_Forecasts, Today's Forecast Archiveadmin

ALERT For The First Widespread Frost And Freezing Conditions Of The Season During Sunday Morning And Monday Morning (October 13-14), Especially Away From Major Lakes And River Valleys.

**GOES-16 Satellite Image At 3:01 PM_12 October 2019**

A combination of very dry air advecting in from the Midwest, with clear skies and light winds, will set the stage for the first widespread frost and freezing conditions. Mountain valleys, especially at middle-upper elevations, will be most at risk for frost-freezing conditions into Sunday morning (13 October). Mountain ridges will generally remain frost-free, except for cold air drainage areas on plateaus.

All locations except for major lakes and river valleys, as well as exposed mountain ridges, will be at risk for frost and freezing conditions into Monday morning (14 October).

A hard freeze will occur within colder mountain valleys into Monday morning versus fog formation in the vicinity of major lakes and rivers which will offer protection from sub-freezing temps (frost could occur prior to river-lake fog formation).

**Guest River Will Be Frost Prone At Its Head But Not Near The Clinch River**

Until the cold season deepens, a complex pattern of frost and freezing conditions will naturally exist within the complex, three-dimensional terrain setting of the Mountain Empire.

It is important for you to recognize your setting. If you live within a location that typically gets frost more than nearby places, then your risk will be higher during the next couple of mornings. If you live in a location that typically is the last to experience frost, then your risk of having frost will be low during this period.

Observed Conditions_13 October 2019

**City of Norton Observation_11:34 PM_13 October 2019**

The City of Norton lies within a middle elevation valley, with a downtown benchmark elevation of 2141 feet above mean sea level. Norton receives cold air drainage from the high country of the High Knob Massif toward the southwest-south-southeast, and from Black Mountain toward the northwest and north, to generate often notable temp contrasts with exposed sections of the nearby Wise Plateau where air temperatures can be 10-20+ degrees milder on cold air drainage nights.

Air temperatures late Sunday evening were dropping quickly in mountain valleys, with 39 degrees in the City of Norton and 39.5 degrees in Clintwood (at 11:34 PM on 13 October). This is setting the stage for widespread mountain valley frost within locations along and north of the High Knob Massif, with fog in locations along and upstream of major lakes and rivers.

The first scattered frost and freeze of the season was observed within colder mountain valleys and plateaus early Sunday, 13 October, with temperatures in the 30s (34 degrees Norton and locally below freezing in high valleys of the High Knob Massif). Areas of fog were also common, especially at lower elevations.

Looking Ahead_First Rime?

**Rime Coming Soon To Highest Peaks_By 17 October 2019**

Following early week warming, in wake of weekend and early Monday frost in colder valleys, the focus shifts to the next cold frontal boundary expected to spread light-moderate rain, with possible downpours, into the mountains during Wednesday (16 October).

Dropping temperatures and wind chills through the afternoon into Wednesday night and Thursday morning (17 October), with air temps falling through the 40s and 30s, will set the stage for the first rime formation of the season on highest peaks into early Thursday. That is the current trend to be followed through coming days, with even a high elevation snowflake or two being possible.

Forecast Verification_14 October 2019

**Low Temp 32 degrees_Roof At Norton Elementary School**

Widespread frost and freezing temperatures were observed Monday morning, 14 October, with temperatures at or below freezing from the City of Norton to Clintwood.

A low of 32 degrees was recorded on the roof-top at Norton ES, with slightly colder temps reported by more standard sites near ground level in the Norton-Ramsey to Tacoma-Coeburn corridor, and the Big Laurel to Esserville valley corridor. An official low temperature of 31 degrees was recorded in Clintwood.

**Fog Was Limited Across Far Southwestern Virginia_9:01 AM_14 October 2019**

Fog was limited amid dry air, such that mountain valley frost was heavy and widespread in many valley locations upstream and downstream of the High Knob Massif in Wise County and parts of Dickenson, Lee and northern Scott counties, with the coldest temperatures within high valleys at upper elevations, above 2700 feet, in the massif where hard freezes occurred.

Fog formation was most widespread along the Clinch River, lower portions of the Russell and Levisa Forks of the Big Sandy River, and the Cumberland River in southeastern Kentucky.

041219 Forecast

April 12, 20192019_04_Forecastsadmin

The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorm Development On Palm Sunday ( April 14 )

Storm Prediction Center Risk For Sunday_April 14, 2019

Follow the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma for updated risk regions and advance notifications of potential watches.

Storm Prediction Center Wind Damage Probability_Within 25 Miles Of Any Point

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Probability_Within 25 Miles Of Any Point

Storm Prediction Center Damaging Hail Probability_Within 25 Miles Of Any Point

Any needed warnings will be issued by regional National Weather Service Forecast Offices:

One of the best full screen and interactive Doppler radars for tracking live action is offered by WSAZ, the Tri-State leader out of Huntington-Charleston West Virginia and Ashland-Ironton in KY-OH:

WSAZ-TV Interactive Doppler Radar

The Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Page offers a host of parameters to look at near real-time conditions during severe weather and any type of atmospheric setting of interest.

The NOAA GOES Image Viewer offers the best satellite images for recent and near real-time weather conditions.

Choosing the Great Lakes Sector generally offers the best viewing of the Mountain Empire.

033019 Forecast

March 30, 20192019_03_Forecastsadmin

ALERT For Accumulating Snow At Upper Elevations Into Sunday Morning ( Mainly Above 3000 Feet )

A large temperature plunge will occur overnight into Sunday morning with rain showers changing to snow showers and flurries. A Great Lake moisture linkage will combine with upsloping NW winds to cause an enhanced period of snow showers.

Accumulations of up to 1″, or locally more at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif, will contrast with little to no accumulation at elevations below 2500 to 3000 feet.

Low clouds are expected to break during mid to late Sunday afternoon, with unseasonably cold conditions continuing into April 1.

European Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast_Days 3-7

A milder zonal flow is now expected to develop across the USA with a warming trend during the first week of April, following a chilly start to the new month.

February 2019_850 MB Temperature Anomalies

For the second consecutive year, the month of March will end having been colder than February ( above ) versus long-term averages.

March 1-28, 2019_850 MB Temperature Anomalies

032519 Forecast

March 25, 20192019_03_Forecastsadmin

ALERT For Dropping Cloud Bases And A Period Of Dense Fog On Northerly Upslope Flow Along And North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide Monday Evening Into Early Tuesday

Developing rain, with a chance of thunder, will give way to an influx of colder air by Monday evening into early hours of Tuesday with dropping cloud bases.

Northerly upslope flow will lower cloud bases to generate dense fog at elevations around and above the elevation of the Town of Wise. Caution is advised for reduced visibility from late Monday into early hours of Tuesday.

Very Dense Fog_University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

Please use extreme caution for greatly reduced visibility through this morning (Tuesday).

Freezing fog, with riming, is expected at elevations above 3000-3300 feet.

European Model 850 MB Temp-Wind Flow Forecast_Friday_March 29, 2019

A changeable spring weather pattern is featured for the final days of March into early April, with a huge temperature fluctuation expected from unseasonable warmth to unseasonably cold air.

European Model 850 MB Temp-Wind Flow Forecast_Sunday_March 31, 2019

The late March-early April setting will bear close watching with high latitude blocking. This will generate the potential for a large storm system.

European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies_Sunday_March 31, 2019

Stay tuned for later updates.

032119 Forecast

March 21, 20192019_03_Forecastsadmin

ALERT For High Elevation Snow-Wind

Wind driven snow will impact high elevations into tonight, with caution advised for travelers crossing the High Knob Massif on Route 619 and connecting roads above 3300 feet.

Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif At 2:34 PM_March 21, 2019

Gusty NW winds and falling snow will combine with orographic clouds to cause greatly reduced visibility. Accumulations of 1-3″ are expected to be widespread on ground surfaces, with much less on roads during the day. Greatest sticking on roads is expected to occur after sunset.

The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorm Development On Palm Sunday ( April 14 )

Follow the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma for updated risk regions and advance notifications of potential watches.

Any needed warnings will be issued by regional National Weather Service Forecast Offices:

One of the best full screen and interactive Doppler radars for tracking live action is offered by WSAZ, the Tri-State leader out of Huntington-Charleston West Virginia and Ashland-Ironton in KY-OH:

The Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Page offers a host of parameters to look at near real-time conditions during severe weather and any type of atmospheric setting of interest.

The NOAA GOES Image Viewer offers the best satellite images for recent and near real-time weather conditions.

Choosing the Great Lakes Sector generally offers the best viewing of the Mountain Empire.

ALERT For Accumulating Snow At Upper Elevations Into Sunday Morning ( Mainly Above 3000 Feet )

A large temperature plunge will occur overnight into Sunday morning with rain showers changing to snow showers and flurries. A Great Lake moisture linkage will combine with upsloping NW winds to cause an enhanced period of snow showers.

Accumulations of up to 1″, or locally more at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif, will contrast with little to no accumulation at elevations below 2500 to 3000 feet.

Low clouds are expected to break during mid to late Sunday afternoon, with unseasonably cold conditions continuing into April 1.

A milder zonal flow is now expected to develop across the USA with a warming trend during the first week of April, following a chilly start to the new month.

For the second consecutive year, the month of March will end having been colder than February ( above ) versus long-term averages.

ALERT For Dropping Cloud Bases And A Period Of Dense Fog On Northerly Upslope Flow Along And North Of The High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide Monday Evening Into Early Tuesday

Developing rain, with a chance of thunder, will give way to an influx of colder air by Monday evening into early hours of Tuesday with dropping cloud bases.

Northerly upslope flow will lower cloud bases to generate dense fog at elevations around and above the elevation of the Town of Wise. Caution is advised for reduced visibility from late Monday into early hours of Tuesday.

Please use extreme caution for greatly reduced visibility through this morning (Tuesday).

Freezing fog, with riming, is expected at elevations above 3000-3300 feet.

A changeable spring weather pattern is featured for the final days of March into early April, with a huge temperature fluctuation expected from unseasonable warmth to unseasonably cold air.

The late March-early April setting will bear close watching with high latitude blocking. This will generate the potential for a large storm system.

Stay tuned for later updates.

ALERT For High Elevation Snow-Wind

Wind driven snow will impact high elevations into tonight, with caution advised for travelers crossing the High Knob Massif on Route 619 and connecting roads above 3300 feet.

Gusty NW winds and falling snow will combine with orographic clouds to cause greatly reduced visibility. Accumulations of 1-3″ are expected to be widespread on ground surfaces, with much less on roads during the day. Greatest sticking on roads is expected to occur after sunset.

Little to no accumulation is expected at elevations below 2700-3000 feet, with sticking at these lower elevations expected tonight in snow showers.