*Periods of showers and downpours in thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday into Wednesday before a brief decrease in activity, with lower rain chances, develops by Thursday ( July 26 ) as this current upper-level region of low pressure lifts out to the northeast.
Rain chances may remain seasonally low through much of next weekend before ramping back up, but this remains to be seen and will need to be updated as this time period gets closer.
*Another deepening upper-level trough is expected to begin development by next weekend through final days of July, with a heavy to excessive rainfall potential returning by the end of July into the beginning of August.
*This wetter and cooler than average pattern is expected to continue into the final month of Meteorological Summer.
Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Dense fog at highest elevations. Areas of valley fog at lower elevations. Winds SE-S at 10 mph or less, except a few higher gusts on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
Monday Morning Through The Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. A chance of showers & thunderstorms with hit-miss downpours. Light SSE-S winds. Temperatures varying from the upper 60s to lower 70s to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( coolest at upper elevations ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or storm. SE-S winds at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Areas of fog.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms likely. Local downpours. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the 70s at lower-middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Areas of dense fog. Winds shifting SW-W. Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 50s to the middle-upper 60s ( coolest in upper elevations ).
Wednesday Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms likely. Local downpours. Winds NW to N at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Areas of fog, widespread at the highest elevations. Temperatures varying from 60s in the upper elevations to the 70s at low-middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms possible through the evening, with local downpours, followed by diminishing activity. Areas of dense fog. Winds WNW-NNW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
**Given significant recent rainfall any heavy or slow moving activity could cause strong water level rises during coming days. Remain alert for changing conditions and to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for any alerts or warnings which may be needed.
Weather Discussion ( Wet Pattern )
Tuesday Afternoon Update
High Knob Massif Webcam – University of Virginia’s College At Wise
Hit-miss afternoon downpours and cool summer air were featured Tuesday, especially within upper elevations in the High Knob Massif where the daytime max held in the 60s. This contrasted with an afternoon high of 78 degrees in Clintwood where conditions had finally remained dry.
*Temperatures dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s after 5:00 PM as rain fell on Eagle Knob and at High Knob Lake, and also cooled significantly where heaviest rains fell into parts of Powell Valley and the City of Norton into portions of northern Scott County.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Day 4-8
Following a break Thursday ( with low rain chances ) the upper air pattern reloads with jet stream dynamics and a feed of tropical moisture setting the stage for more heavy to excessive rainfall during final days of July into early August ( the final month of Meteorological Summer ).
Previous Discussion
A wet and stormy weather pattern will continue to mostly dominate the mountain region through the remainder of July, with a few breaks ( low rain chances July 26 ) in the more organized activity.
Chimney Rock Gorge of High Knob Massif – July 20, 2018
A general 2.00″ to 4.00″ of rain fell across the mountain area during the July 20-22 period, from the high country of the High Knob Massif north to Breaks Interstate Park.
Totals between 3.00″ to 4.00″ fell on Big Cherry Lake basin and in Clintwood ( 3.26″ ), with 2.10″ measured at City of Norton WP. This boosted July rainfall tallies into the 6.00″ to 7.00″ range on Black Mountain and at Big Cherry Dam in the High Knob high country.
Turk’s-cap Lily ( Lilium superbum ) In High Knob High Country – July 14, 2018
Thursday ( July 26 ) is currently the pick day for lowest rain chances in the short-term as the current upper-level low dissipates and lifts out to the northeast.
This will be short-lived as additional upstream waves in the long-wave pattern begin to dive into the eastern USA and deepen ( i.e., develop ) a new trough. With luck the main impact of this will hold off until late in the upcoming weekend or early next week ( July 29-31 period ).
*While hit-miss showers & thunderstorms will be possible Friday, chances increase significantly tonight into early Saturday with the potential for strong to locally severe thunderstorms approaching from the WNW & NW-N.
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Risk Regions
*A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will need to be closely monitored as it drops southeast to south out of the Ohio Valley Friday evening into the overnight of Saturday.
Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Risk Regions
*A cooler and occasionally wet weekend-early week period is expected as a upper-level low develops and moves south over the region by Sunday into Monday ( July 22-23 ). The coolest conditions will be over the high country where day time temperatures will mainly hover in the 60s ( only near 60 degrees at highest elevations ).
ECMWF Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
Overnight Into Friday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Small chance of a localized shower or thunderstorm. Areas of dense valley fog. Winds SSE to SSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s.
Friday Morning Through The Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of hit-miss showers or thunderstorms with local downpours. SSE to SSW winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from lower-middle 70s to the lower-mid 80s ( coolest in upper elevations above 3000 feet ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms could be strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Winds SSE-SSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-elevation mountain ridges-exposed plateaus. Winds SSW-WSW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
Saturday Morning Through The Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Winds SSW to WSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from the low-mid 60s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 70s.
*Downpours will remain possible through Tuesday as a cold front pushes across the mountains.
*Expect a refreshing air mass to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with gorgeous conditions for mid-summer by the afternoon into Wednesday night-Thursday morning.
*A cooler and stormy pattern develops by this weekend into early next week. A heavy to potentially excessive rainfall pattern is being monitored during the July 22-26 period.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Hit-miss showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds WSW-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Areas of dense valley fog. Humid & hazy with temps in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms likely. Local downpours. Some storms could be briefly strong to severe. Winds becoming NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from around 70 degrees to the lower 80s ( coolest at highest elevations ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of evening showers or local storms. Becoming partly-mostly clear and less humid ( increasing high clouds by morning ). NW-NNE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Areas of dense fog developing. Temperatures varying from the low-middle 50s in cooler valleys at upper elevations to the low-mid 60s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Blue skies aloft. Pleasant. Less humid. Temperatures varying from the 60s to lower 70s at upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear and cool. Areas of dense valley fog. NE winds shifting E-SE on mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures varying from 40s in colder mountain valleys at the upper elevations to the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Weather Discussion ( Cooler Pattern )
The second half of Summer 2018 ( July 15-August 31 ) will be trending cooler than the first half of this season.
Gorgeous Afternoon at High Knob Lake on July 14, 2018
Although only 2 days have broken 80 degrees at High Knob Lake ( 81 degrees on July 4 being the max so far this year ), and no days have gotten out of the 70s on highest northern slopes in the massif, it has been a much different story for lowlands within the Great Valley where 19 days at or above 90 degrees have already been observed ( mostly in July ).
Daily Climate Date For The Tri-Cities ( July 1-15, 2018 )
Although much more pleasant conditions will be felt by Wednesday into Thursday, a moisture return will occur into this weekend and early next week to set the stage for cool, wet mid-summer conditions. This will be especially true if an upper-level low forms over the region as some recent model guidance suggests.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
A upper trough over the eastern USA at this time of year can be a stormy setup, with relatively cold air aloft over top of low-level moisture. A heavy to potentially excessive rain pattern is being monitored heading into next week.
Stay tuned for later updates on a cooler, wetter pattern.
ALERT For The Potential Of Heavy-Excessive Rainfall Monday Along With A Chance Of A Few Strong-Locally Severe Thunderstorms
A high amount of atmospheric moisture is expected to support multiple waves of showers and downpours in thunderstorms through Monday. Locations with training storms, or prolonged heavy rainfall will be at risk for high water problems. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and/or warning which may be needed.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions Through Monday ( June 25 )
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Through Monday and during Wednesday ( June 25 and June 27 ).
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected as a heat ridge builds into and across the region.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions For June 27
A heat ridge is predicted to build across the eastern USA during late week into the upcoming weekend and next week ( through the Independence Day Holiday ).
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
While the 51-Member European Model Ensemble Mean is predicting a classic eastern USA heat ridge to form, local heating will be largely dependent on the amount of clouds and thunderstorms which develops over the mountains during any given day.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The amount of soil moisture is important to how hot it can get at this time of year, with rainfall during the next few days combining with what has already been observed during June 2018.
NWS Precipitation Analysis and Doppler Estimated Month-to-Date Rainfall
ALERT For Torrential Downpours In Thunderstorms Along With Dangerous Lightning And The Possibility Of Local Wind Damage & Hail
A ring of fire convective pattern is expected to dominate mountain area weather conditions during the coming week with periodic disturbances enhancing potential for clusters of thunderstorms. Daytime heating and instability will also trigger localized storms.
Remain tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings which may be needed during coming days.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of valley fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the middle 50s to the middle 60s.
Monday Morning Through The Afternoon
Periods of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds SSW to WSW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts in some storms. Temps varing from the 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees middle-lower elevations ( especially northwest to north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SE-SW at 5-10 mph with higher gusts. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temperatures in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts. Temps varing from upper 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to lower 80s. Warmer south into the Great Valley.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds S to SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on ridges at elevations below 2700 feet. Winds SSW to WSW 10-20 mph with higher gusts above 2700 feet. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temps in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Weather Discussion ( Stormy Pattern )
A stormy weather pattern is the main focus of this forecast period as intervals of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms roam the mountain landscape.
Pickem-Stone Mountain of High Knob Massif – Afternoon of June 9, 2018
A thunderstorm rapidly developed over the High Knob Massif during the mid-late afternoon of June 9, with 0.60″ to 2.00″ of rainfall estimated by Doppler radar centered over the basin heads of Big Cherry Lake, High Knob Lake, and the Norton Reservoirs.
*The temperature on Eagle Knob dropped from an afternoon MAX of 71.1 degrees at 5:40 PM to 59.5 degrees at 6:20 PM. Significant run-off at an elevation above 4100 feet occurred amid the heavy rainfall.
While local, hit-miss gully washing thunderstorms are expected amid unstable air the real driver of the upcoming pattern will be disturbances moving across the mountains in a general WNW upper air flow, north of steamy, heat anchored over the southern Plains & southwestern USA.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
A possible change during the 6-10 day forecast period by next weekend and the following week is being watched that could enhance the inflow of moisture from the deep tropics.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The Bottom Line…A temperate rain forest environment is expected to rule mountain area weather through coming days. Remain alert to changing conditions.
Hit-miss showers and downpours in thunderstorms will remain possible through Sunday before a refreshing air mass change arrives to kick off the first full week of June.
Summer 2018 Arrives Early At Upper Norton Reservoir
This will also mark the beginning of a new pattern that may continue well into the summer season.
European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast For June 2-6, 2018
A heat dome will remain anchored over the western USA, with a surface center developing near the Red River Valley along the Texas-Oklahoma border.
European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast For June 2-6, 2018
The Mountain Empire will initially cool down into next week as much drier, low dewpoint air surges into the area around the eastern periphery of the blazing heat.
European Model 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast For June 7-11, 2018
This sets up a nice stretch of weather, with chilly nights in mountain valleys, until later in the 6-10 day forecast period when the heat dome begins to expand. Due to wet ground and it’s position a ring of fire convective pattern may arise.
European Model 850 MB Temperature Forecast For June 7-11, 2018
While the core of the heat will remain locked in place well to the west, enough heat and instability will surge eastward to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms.
A pattern like this can become locked into place for an extended period of time, with periodic expansions of the heat dome triggering clusters of thunderstorms which hold true heat at bay and occasionally allow drier, less humid air to return during a heat dome contraction phase prior to the next expansion.
The above being the idealized scenario based upon current soil moisture variations across the nation, plus past climatology of similar settings.
A MCS ( Mesoscale Convective System ) – thunderstorm cluster will be pushing into the mountain area by mid to late afternoon ( 4:00 to 6:00 PM ) with a threat of damaging winds, lightning, and torrential rainfall.
*Several thunderstorm clusters will be moving east toward the Appalachians through this afternoon-evening. Models currently predict the second and third clusters to become most severe ( the final cluster possibly impacting a region west of the mountains…but remain alert throughout the remainder of this afternoon-evening ).
Storm Prediction Center – Damaging Wind Risk Forecast
The greatest threats remain west of the mountains according to the Storm Prediction Center, but local risks should be respected and have the potential to become greater than currently indicated with partial clearing in advance of the developing thunderstorm clusters adding to instability in high dewpoint air.
These storms will be capable of generating torrential rainfall, such that strong water level rises will also be at least a local threat ( ultimately, perhaps, becoming the greatest threat given such a wet May 2018…any activity that trains or moves repeatedly across the same corridor will therefore be especially prone to trigger flash flooding ).
GOES-16 Visible Image
Stay Tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings that may be needed.
ALERT Continues For Torrential Downpours In Hit-Miss Showers & Thunderstorms Through Tuesday
A local flash flood risk will continue to impact the mountain area through Tuesday amid muggy air.
A weak boundary passing across the mountains will decrease the threat of downpours from north to south during Wednesday, with much more pleasant air now expected during Thursday into Friday.
This will be a relatively short-lived break with a return of deep, tropical moisture expected to renew the threat of torrential rain producing showers and thunderstorms during the Memorial Day Holiday period.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy with areas of dense fog. Chance of a local shower. Winds S to SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts above 2700 feet. Humid. Temperature varying from the upper 50s to low-mid 60s.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid with hit-miss showers & thunderstorms. SSW-WSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the lower 70s at upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday Evening Into Wednesday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of hit-miss showers and downpours in thunderstorms. SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & exposed plateaus. Winds shifting WNW-NW during the morning. Areas of dense fog in valleys. Temps varying from the 50s to low-mid 60s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially to the south. Becoming less humid and more refreshing from north to south, with deepening blue skies aloft. Winds NW-N at 5-10 mph with higher gusts.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Clear & cooler. Areas of dense river valley and lower elevation fog. Light valley winds. Variable winds at generally less than 10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the lower-middle 40s in colder valleys to the lower to middle 50s ( coldest in upper elevations ).
*A returning tropical air mass will renew the threat of downpours during the Memorial Day Holiday Period into next week.
Weather Discussion ( Flash Flooding )
A pattern featuring torrential, hit or miss, downpours which started last week continues until a weak boundary gives the mountain area a short-lived break from late Wednesday into Friday.
Black Mountain Mesonet Data For The 1-Hour Period Ending At 5:25 PM
A 3.59″ deluge was captured by the mesonet site on Black Mountain, with 0.43″ accumulating in 5 minutes ( 5.16″ per hour rainfall rate ) during the height of the thunderstorm, late Monday afternoon ( pushing the May rainfall total to over 9.00″ ). By contrast, as has been the nature of this pattern, little rain fell only a short distance away in the City of Norton.
While the pattern since last week has possessed an easterly air flow component on numerous days, favoring the eastern side of the Blue Ridge where up to 10.00″+ of rain has locally fallen in May, it has also been characterized by a moisture feedback to further enhance the hit-miss nature of convective activity.
A convective feedback develops when heavy rainfall initially saturates a area to enhance evaporation-evapotranspiration into the overlying atmosphere over the local area. This then acts to aid new rainfall development via the local presence of extra latent heat release from moisture input into the overlying atmosphere.
At the same time, locations missed by heavy rainfall have much less moisture injection into the overlying atmosphere above them and a enhanced tendency toward having lighter rain amounts and missing torrential downpours.
These feedbacks can last for days to weeks in a persistent pattern, or change in their placement with a pattern break and shift back into a tropical-type of regime ( such as appears to be upcoming as the final days of May slip into early June ).
Black Mountain Mesonet Data For The 1-Hour Period Ending At 4:25 PM
Clintwood has been under a wet feedback in recent days with 1.60″+ of rain causing flash flooding in and around town during Monday afternoon ( pushing the May rainfall tally to over 6.00″ ).
Month To Date Rainfall Totals To 8 AM May 21, 2018
This recent pattern has generated a large difference between places like Mount LeConte ( at the summit of the Great Smokies on the western side of the mountain range with 2.24″ reported during May 1-20 ) and Mount Mitchell ( on the eastern side of the chain with 8.92″ reported during May 1-20 ). Totals, as noted previously, have also varied greatly over more localized distances. Reported 1981-2010 precipitation totals are nearly the same for both peaks, to illustrate the anomalous nature of this short-term pattern ( * ).
*Mount LeConte typically reports much more than Grandfather Mountain, but during this pattern it has received around a FOOT less rainfall to again illustrate the anomaly associated with recent easterly flow of tropical air into the eastern flank of the Blue Ridge ( long-term MEAN annual flow has a westerly component to favor Mount LeConte for the most precipitation ).
While the regional trend of heaviest rains along and east of the Appalachians has been captured by NWS stations and a composite of Doppler Radar rain estimates, the local scale hit-miss nature must be looked at using individual Doppler radar estimation graphics ( like the MRX example below ).
MRX Doppler Rainfall Estimate For Monday ( May 21, 2018 )
Rain amounts during Monday afternoon varied by 2.00″ or more in Dickenson County over just a few air miles. Ditto for numerous other locations across the region.
ALERT For Torrential Rain In Hit-Miss Showers And Downpours In Thunderstorms During May 15-18
Increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean will combine with disturbances in the westerlies to trigger showers and downpours in thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday afternoon and continuing through the work week.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
High clouds & mild. Light valley winds. Winds S-SW at less than 10 mph on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW to SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the mid-upper 60s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy with a chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall possible, especially by late afternoon. Light & variable winds, except gusty in heavier storms. Temperatures varying from upper 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers & thunderstorms, especially during the evening. Areas of fog, dense in places receiving heavy rain. Light winds, except S-SW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 50s to lower-mid 60s.
Wednesday Afternoon Through Friday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy with intervals of hit-miss showers and downpours in thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain amounts. Temperatures in 60s & 70s during the day and 50s to lower 60s at night ( generally coolest at upper elevations ).
Weather Discussion ( Summer Pattern )
A jump straight from spring into a summer-like pattern during the past week will kick into high gear during coming days as tropical moisture increases both horizontally and vertically through the atmosphere.
Wild Stonecrop ( Sedum ternatum )
Although the forest canopy has now closed at the lower elevations in the foothills of eastern Kentucky, and within the Tennessee Valley, it remains partially to fully open in higher elevations of the mountains.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Through 8 AM Thursday – May 17
Humidification and relative mildness will enhance the progression of spring upward through higher elevations during the next week to 10 days, with a threat for tropical downpours to signal that this transition into summer is for real with staying power through the next couple of weeks.
European Model Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
Bermuda High pressure off the east Coast and a general southwesterly flow aloft will continue the warm, humid pattern with intervals of showers & thunderstorms during the next week to 10 days ( while it will not rain, of course, all the time, a wetter and more humid pattern is coming to signal an early arrival of summer in the Mountain Empire ).
True summer will arrive as the forest canopy matures across all elevations and evapotranspiration increases to feed low-level moisture back into the overlying atmosphere ( * ).
*This process starts in lowlands, below 2000 feet, and progresses upward through higher terrain locations as spring progresses. It annually begins during the explosive April 15-May 15 period, at elevations below 3000 to 3500 feet, and advances to the highest summits through late May into early June.
ALERT For Strong SE-SSE Winds Monday Into Tuesday Morning – Especially At Upper Elevations And Within Mountain Wave Zones Lee Of The High Knob Massif, Pine Mountain & Clinch Mountain
Strong SE-SSE winds are expected to continue and increase in strength through the remainder of the overnight into the daylight hours of Monday. Strongest winds are expected at upper elevations and within mountain wave zones such as the Clinch River Valley of Tazewell-Russell counties, Powell Valley in Wise County, and locations along & just lee of the Pine Mountain ridge near the Virginia-Kentucky stateline.
A wet pattern features the heaviest rain amounts along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, and locally within upslope locations of the High Knob Massif-Cumberland Mountains.
Although Monday will feature a chance of thunderstorms, the better chance arises on Tuesday with locally heavy rain amounts expected.
Storm Prediction Center Thunderstorm Outlook – 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM Wednesday
A cooler than average temperature pattern will continue this week, but signs for a shift to above average temps is now increasing as the month of May arrives.
Maples Budding In High Knob Lake Basin on April 21, 2018
Early spring conditions in the high country remain on display in wake of a cold April 1-21 period.
Observed April Temperatures In High Country of High Knob Massif
Numerous days with temperatures dropping into the 10s to lower 20s have been recorded, including up to 9.0 inches of snowfall at the highest elevations during the month.
