Mtn Area Forecast ( May 31-June 3 )
An increasing chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms will be observed Wednesday-Friday ( especially during afternoon-early evening hours ). Some storms may become strong to locally severe, on general principles, but torrential rainfall may end up being the main aspect that will need to be monitored most.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Partly to mostly clear. Areas of fog. Light N-NE winds generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to mid 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly to mostly sunny. Warm & humid. Small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Light NNE to ENE winds at generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from the low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the low-mid 80s.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
CAUTION for Dense Fog between Little Stone Mountain Gap, and Powell Valley Overlook, and Big Stone Gap for travelers along U.S. 23 ( and old U.S. 23 heading into Appalachia ).
Partly to mostly clear. Areas of fog ( dense in Powell Valley and locations having heavy rain during Tuesday ). SE-SSW winds generally under 10 mph. Temperatures varying from 50s amid cooler mountain valleys to the low-mid 60s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Light SE-S winds at mostly less than 10 mph ( outside any storms ). Warm & humid with temperatures varying from low-mid 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Chance of evening showers & thunderstorms. Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Winds SSE to SSW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW-WSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from the 50s to low-mid 60s.
Thursday Afternoon
Hit-miss showers & thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall. Winds SSW-WSW at generally less than 10 mph outside of storms. Temperatures varying from upper 60s to lower 70s in upper elevations to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Areas of dense fog. Winds SSW-WNW at generally less than 10 mph outside of storms. Warm and humid with temperatures widespread in the upper 50s to lower-middle 60s.
Weather Discussion ( May 31-June 2 )
Early Wednesday Update
Local terrain triggered convection erupted in localized fashion during Tuesday, with torrential rainfall along the U.S. 23 corridor between Norton and Big Stone Gap.
A general 0.50″ to 1.00″+ of rainfall fell along U.S. 23 from near the Powell Valley Overlook, and Little Stone Mountain Gap, to the East Stone Gap area of Powell Valley. Heavy rain, which initially developed along Powell Mountain, moved across Little Stone Mountain to the Appalachia Lake Water Plant.
An area of rainfall developed earlier in the day ( early PM ) over portions of the Big Cherry Lake, Devil Fork and Straight Fork basins of the High Knob Massif, with 0.52″ of rain reported by a typically low reading automated gauge on Little Mountain. Other locations, by contrast, had little rain.
The hit-miss action of Tuesday is likely to be replicated on coming days, with heavy rainfall and strong storms hitting daily in different places. Any places that do get hit multiple times will be at higher risk for significant run-off and the possibility of strong water level rises.
Some models, like the GFS, are forecasting heavy rain amounts during the next 5 days. Models; however, are merely guessing at where the heaviest amounts will fall ( with a bias shown toward the major terrain features ). Only time will tell where heaviest total amounts will accumulate through coming days, which will partially ( at least ) be dictated by numerous sources that force convergence ( the coming together of air ) at low-levels.