Any Mid-Late Week Storm Could Be Strong & Produce Torrential Rainfall In Downpours. A Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Has Been Issued By The Storm Prediction Center For Thursday ( June 16 ).
The Mountain Empire will remain within a thermal-moisture gradient this week, with a large contrast in temperatures and dewpoints across the region. This gradient will be fluctuating back and forth across the Cumberland Mountains.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread between mountain ridges and much cooler valleys. Light & variable winds below 2700 feet. Winds SSW-WNW at generally less than 10 mph along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temps varying from 40s in mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees along exposed middle elevation ridges-plateaus ( extremes varying from 38 to 44 degrees in colder valleys of mid-upper elevations amid the High Knob Massif-Burkes Garden corridor to low-mid 60s at lower elevations in the Tennessee Valley southwest of the Tri-Cities ).
Tuesday Afternoon
Increasing mid-high clouds ( some cumulus possible ). Becoming hazy & more humid late. Hotter. Slight chance of a hit-miss shower or storm by late afternoon. Light and variable winds. Temperatures varying from 70s in upper elevations to the middle 80s to around 90 degrees ( hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Hazy & humid. Chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms ( especially overnight toward morning ). Light winds, except S-SW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Warm with temperatures mostly in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Wednesday Afternoon
Humid & hazy with a chance for showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts ( stronger in storms ). Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s to lower-mid 80s ( coolest in the upper elevations ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Humid. Winds SW to NNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid to upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
Thursday Afternoon & Evening
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Winds W-NW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges and plateaus. Afternoon maxs varying from 70s at highest elevations to the 80s to around 90 degrees.
Weather Discussion ( June 12-16 )
Early Thursday Update
A hit-miss array of showers & downpours in thunderstorms impacted the mountain area during Wednesday ( June 15 ).
Conditions Wednesday marked a significant change from morning lows in the low-mid 40s in colder mountain valleys during the AM of June 14 as the region was again engulfed by steamy air on the moist side of a notable temperature-moisture gradient.
Summer Thunderstorms Form Above Dickenson County VA – June 15, 2016
The Storm Prediction Center has the mountain area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today ( June 16 ).
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions For June 16
The greatest risk today, with an Enhanced Region, is forecast to be centered upon either side of the West Virginia-Virginia border to the northeast of the Mountain Empire.
Storm Prediction Center Discussion For June 16
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed today.
Previous Discussion
A gorgeous Monday is being observed across the mountains with beautiful blue skies and low dewpoints. Although the sun is a dynamo at this time of year, and feels hot in direct light on any day, air temperatures have been pleasant with readings varying from lower 70s to lower 80s.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Monday afternoon temperatures have peaked in the lower 70s ( at higher elevations in the High Knob Massif ) to the upper 70s to low 80s ( 83 degrees in Clintwood ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
Both temperatures and dewpoints are much higher to the south into the Tennessee Valley, from the Tri-Cities south and southwest. This will generate a large temperature difference tonight into early hours of Tuesday.
*As of 6:30 PM the official NWS temperature in Clintwood had fallen from 83 degrees to 71 degrees ( to illustrate the cooling potential that will develop amid valleys as the sun continues to sink beneath the mountain horizon ).
NAM 4 KM Model Dewpoint At 8 AM Monday – June 13, 2016
The moisture gradient set up across the region Monday is very notable, with pleasant low dewpoint air north and northeast of the Tri-Cities and Tennessee Valley.
HRRR Model Surface Dewpoints At 3:00 PM Monday – June 13, 2016
With clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints the air temp will drop significantly tonight into Tuesday AM in mountain valleys within and northward to northeastward of the High Knob Massif ( MINS by Tuesday Morning could vary by more than 20 degrees along N-S and NE-SW tran-sects across far southwestern Virginia and NE Tennessee- southern Kentucky across this moisture gradient ).
NAM 4 KM Model Dewpoint Forecast At 8:00 PM Wednesday – June 15, 2016
This large moisture gradient will be gone by mid-week, with showers & downpours in thunderstorms increasing across the mountain landscape by Wednesday into Thursday.
Rainfall Amounts Since May 1
Some local showers and storms made it into portions of Dickenson & Buchanan counties during Sunday, with the bulk of rainfall activity focused over northern Kentucky into southern portions of West Virginia.
Observed Rainfall During Sunday ( June 12, 2016 )
During the past 30+ days, since May 1, rainfall totals have varied significantly across the Mountain Empire with much more rain along and north of the High Knob Massif versus locations to the south.
Rainfall Totals May 1-June 13
Clintwood 1 W 8.29″
City of Norton WP 8.81″
Tri-Cities NWS 4.89″
*Totals in the High Knob Massif since May 1 have reached into the 10.00″ to 12.00″ range ( wettest locations being from portions of the Bark Camp Lake-Little Stony Creek basin into sections of the Big Stony Creek and South Fork of the Powell River basins ).
USA Drought Monitor As of June 7, 2016
Much drier conditions to the south were reflected by the USA Drought Monitor last week ( even though local conditions are generally not well represented across complex terrain ).
The Black Mountain MesoNET station has recorded 8.18″ of rain since the beginning of May. A recap of daily conditions:
Black Mountain MesoNET For May 2016Black Mountain MesoNET For June 1-12, 2016
