ALERT For Heavy To Excessive Rainfall At Times Into Next Week Amid A Persistence Pattern
A heavy to excessive rainfall potential with the possibility of dangerous flash flooding will continue to be a weather concern, especially from the Cumberland Mountains north and west, in coming days as waves of showers & downpours in thunderstorms periodically move across the region.
While many dry hours will occur, with a break from active storm clusters for much of this weekend, the storm pattern renews into next week. Accumulative rain amounts over time will saturate the ground and make later activity more likely to cause water problems ( especially with any training or back-building of convection which occurs ).
*A general 2.00″ to 5.00″ of rain was observed across the mountain area during the July 3-8 period.
These statements are based on recognition of a repetitive synoptic-scale weather pattern and recent ( antecedent ) conditions producing numerous flash floods in the region.
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms, especially toward morning. Areas of dense valley fog. SW to W winds 5-15 mph on mountain ridges & plateaus below 2700 feet. WSW to WNW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid with temps mainly in the 60s.
Saturday Afternoon
Becoming partly sunny. Chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm. WNW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 70s across upper elevations to the low-mid 80s ( hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly to mostly clear ( some high clouds ). Areas of dense valley fog. W-NW winds 5-15 mph along upper elevation mountain ridges. Cooler with temperatures varying from 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the mid-upper 60s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Light WSW to WNW winds mainly less than 10 mph. Temps varying from 70s in upper elevations to the low-middle 80s ( hotter toward the Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly to mostly clear. Areas of dense valley fog. Light winds. Temepratures varying from mid-upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s ( coolest in mountain valleys ).
Clusters of showers & downpours in thunderstorms are expected to return by Monday into Monday Night and to continue periodically through most of next week.
Weather Discussion ( July 8-11 )
A vigorous storm line spread heavy rain, strong winds, and vivid lightning across the mountains Friday afternoon.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
An outflow boundary was accompanied by strong and gusty winds in advance of the main storm line, part of a low-end Derecho that crossed the Ohio Valley, Appalachians-northern Tennessee Valley, producing torrential downpours of rain in Norton-Wise by 5:00 PM ( July 8 ) and local wind damage that increased in coverage lee of the Cumberlands into the Great Valley.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Thunderstorms began exploding across Kentucky into western parts of West Virginia during early afternoon, amid a steamy atmosphere loaded with water.
NASA Visible Image At 2:30 PM Friday – July 8, 2016
Over-shooting tops developed on some of the stronger storms, with Severe Thunderstorm Warning’s and Flood Advisories being issued for many counties from eastern Kentucky, western West Virginia and southwestern Virginia into the Great Valley.
NASA Visible Image At 5:30 PM Friday – July 8, 2016
Power outages were widespread across the region with numerous counties reporting current outages, on just the AEP Network, as of 11:03 PM Friday ( July 8 ).
AEP Power Outage Map At 11:03 PM Friday – July 8, 2016
Rainfall totals varied from around 0.50″ to between 1.00″-2.00″ as the storm cluster ( MCS ) passed.
*Local rainfall totals during July 3-8 have reached between 4.00″ and 5.00″, thus a concern for flooding will continue as storms increase in coverage into next week with more active clusters expected to rumble across the mountain landscape.
Meanwhile, it is hoped that much of this weekend will remain free of showers & thunderstorms after Saturday morning to mid-day ( behind a frontal passage ).
