The Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Marginal Risk For Severe Thunderstorm Development From 8:00 AM Monday To 8:00 AM Wednesday
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Monday To 8 AM Tuesday ( July 18-19 )Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Tuesday To 8 AM Wednesday ( July 19-20 )
Remainder Of Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy with hit-miss showers & downpours in thunderstorms. NNW-NE winds 5-10 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the lower 70s to the lower 80s ( coolest in upper elevations and hotter south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Chance of a hit-miss evening shower or storm then becoming mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light SW-W winds along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from mid-upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s ( coolest in mountain valleys having little to no fog formation ).
Sunday Afternoon
Partly sunny. Chance of a hit-miss shower or downpour in a thunderstorm. Winds SSE-SSW generally less than 10 mph outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from the 70s at highest elevations to the low-middle 80s ( warmer south toward the Tri-Cities ).
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly cloudy. Chance of a hit-miss shower or storm. Areas of valley fog. Wind SSW-WSW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps mostly in the 60s to near 70 degrees ( around 60 degrees in cooler mountain valleys ).
Monday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW-W winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts along mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 70s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter to the south into the Great Valley and Tri-Cities ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Hazy with areas of fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Winds WSW to WNW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mountain ridges. Humid and mild with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Development of a coast-to-coast heat wave is expected by late this week into this weekend ( July 21-24 ) with the hottest conditions of the summer season. Local MAXS will depend upon cloud formation over the mountains and any showers or storms that might be able to form. Stay tuned for updates on this event.
Weather Discussion ( July 16-19 )
Abundant clouds along with a few showers & downpours in thunderstorms are being observed Saturday ( July 16 ) as a weak boundary approaches the Cumberland Mountains.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
A MAX temperature of 82.2 degrees in Clintwood quickly fell back to 69.6 degrees as a thunderstorm, with a brief downpour, passed over the weather station around 4:20 PM Saturday ( July 16 ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
Temperatures have held in the 70s during the day above 2600 feet, especially in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.
European Ensembles MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies At 8 AM Saturday – July 16
Although temperatures have been plenty warm, true heat has been escaped so far amid July in the mountains with enough rainfall to hold the hottest air at bay.
Official Wise NWS Station – Layton Gardner Observer at UVA-Wise – Elevation 2520 ftBlack Mountain MesoNET – Elevation 4031 Feet
MAX July 1-15 temperatures were in the 70s to middle 80s at elevations above 2500 feet, with rainfall totals of 4.00″ to 5.00″+ in the High Knob Massif area. This included the City of Norton where 4.64″ of rain ( 30.98″ in 2016 ) had been measured through the morning of July 16.
Official Tri-Cities Climate Data For July 1-15, 2016
Note how the lack of widespread significant rain, by contrast, has enhanced heating amid the Tri-Cities of northeastern Tennessee, in combination with lower elevations, so far during July ( above ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
In the short-term disturbances riding around the periphery of the hottest air will continue to hold the heat at bay, with the next best chance of organized thunderstorms coming into or close to the area by Monday into Tuesday.
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions – 8 AM Monday To 8 AM Tuesday
Focus then shifts toward a pattern that will attempt to spread true heat into the mountains by later next week amid a coast-to-coast heat wave.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 1-5
This has been well forecast far in advance by the European Model, with its 51-Member Ensemble MEAN showing how the heat spreads coast-to-coast by the 6-10 day forecast period of July 22-26.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast – DAYS 6-10
The magnitude of local heating, as so true of the mountains, will be dependent upon cloud formation and any showers or storms that might develop. Less clouds and showers = more heat, as does drier ground = more heat ( so places with drier ground relative to other sites will tend to heat up more ).
