The hottest temperatures of this year will be possible in most places during Thursday-Friday ( July 21-22 ) before increasing humidity-clouds return a chance for showers and downpours in thunderstorms this weekend through next week ( especially in the mountains ). Use common sense ( slow down, take it easier and never leave pets or children in a vehicle – check on the elderly and those without air conditioning ).
Any thunderstorm developing this weekend into next week could be strong to locally severe with booming thunder and dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and gully washing rains.
Overnight Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light N winds shifting ENE to ESE at generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures from mid-upper 50s to the mid-upper 60s ( except lower 50s in upper elevation valleys above 2700-3000 feet within the High Knob Massif ).
Thursday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Hot. Light NE winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 80s in middle-low elevations north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide. MAXS 90 to 95 degrees lee of the High Knob Massif into the Great Valley.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Light winds, except breezy-gusty along high mountain ridges. Temps varying from the mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s, except 50-55 degrees in higher valleys above 2400-3000 feet.
Friday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Hot. Chance of hit-miss showers or thunderstorms. Increasing humidity-haze. Light NW-NNW winds. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s at the highest elevations to mid-upper 80s ( hotter south and southwest toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Haze with areas of valley fog. Light winds. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in cooler valleys to the mid 60s to low 70s ( mildest exposed mid elevation ridges ).
Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Continued hot. A chance of hit-miss showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms. Generally light winds outside of any storms. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 70s in upper elevations to the middle to upper 80s ( hotter toward Jonesville and the Tri-Cities ).
A steamy air mass will will support a daily chance for showers and downpours in thunderstorms from Sunday through next week and the final days of this month ( July 24-31 ).
Weather Discussion ( July 19-24 )
Thursday Evening Update
Drier air allowed for a relatively large day-night temp spread during Thursday, with AM MINS in the 50s within mountain valleys and afternoon MAXS in the 80s.
The official temperatures for Clintwood featured a 30 degree temp spread between 57 degrees Thursday AM and 87 degrees in the PM.
Summer Sunset From High Knob Meadow – Elevation 4223 feet
I took the above photograph in short-sleeves, but actually felt a little cool by the time I left with a near steady north breeze and temperatures around 70 degrees.
Due to moisture evaporation from the ground & vegetation it is difficult to officially break 90 degrees across most of Wise and Dickenson counties, especially along and north of the High Knob Massif and near Cumberland Gap NHP in Lee County where wetter summer conditions have prevailed.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feet
A couple more days will have a chance to make a run for 90 in the lower-middle elevations, but eventually clouds and an increase in showers-storms will take its toll and hold temperatures back ( as humidity rises to make it steamy ).
Conditions are different to the south, into the Great Valley, where much drier ground has allowed the Tri-Cities to rack up the 90+ degree days during Summer 2016.
No surprise given 19.62″ of total precipitation this year in the Tri-Cities, with 3.71″ during June 1 to July 21, versus more than 31.00″ in the City of Norton ( around 10.00″ during June 1-July 21 ) and around 40.00″ in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif.
Previous Discussion
Thunderstorms that formed above South Fork Gorge and Maple Gap of the High Knob Massif on Tuesday afternoon turned severe as they moved off the high country into Natural Tunnel State Park & parts of the Great Valley.
Water Reflections On Upper Norton Reservoir of High Knob Massif ( July 19 )
A nice air mass; although, still somewhat humid & hazy, lingered amid the high country with afternoon temperatures within the lower to middle 70s above 3200 feet in the High Knob Massif.
Sunflower ( Helianthus spp. ) In Upper Elevations of High Knob Massif
It is a blessing to have a place where one can photograph Turk’s-cap and Canada ( Lilium canadense ) lilies while listening to the croaks of Northern Ravens ( Corvus corax ) and a couple dozen or more species of Wood Warblers ( along with many more species ).
Turk’s-cap Lilies ( Lilium superbum ) Bloom In High Country – July 19, 2016
Temperatures on Wednesday ( July 20 ) varied from mid 70s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the lower to middle 80s in Norton-Wise and Clintwood ( 86 degrees officially at 1560 feet elevation in Clintwood ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Station In The Middle Elevations – Elevation 2650 feetBlack Mountain MesoNET – Hottest Part Of Day ( MAX 77.9 degrees at 4031 feet )
Although stream levels are seasonally low, the woods remained damp when I was out on Tuesday ( July 19 ) with fungi growing in numerous places. June-July rainfall totals across the High Knob Massif have generally varied from 10.00″ to 13.00″, with around 10.00″ measured at the base in the City of Norton.
Gem Studded Puffballs ( Lycoperdon spp. ) In High Knob Massif ( July 19, 2016 )
Focus is now on the hottest temperatures of 2016 during Thursday-Friday ( July 21-22 ) before increasing humidity levels likely cause increased build-ups of clouds over the mountains this weekend into next week, some of which will develop into showers & booming thunderstorms with gully washing downpours of rain ( as has been the pattern of this summer in the Cumberland Mountains ).
*Thunderstorms that form amid unseasonably hot air typically generate booming thunder ( i.e., dangerous lightning ) and have downpours of gully washing rainfall. Should clouds and storms not develop in coming days, heating would be more intense and temperatures higher ( even atop the high country ).
European 51-Member Ensemble 500 MB MEAN Height Forecast – Days 1 to 5
The signal for a return of showers & downpours in thunderstorms shows up well on the 51-Member European Ensembles with a retro-gression of the highest 500 MB heights toward the west next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble 500 MB MEAN Height Forecast – Days 6-10
Although conditions remain steamy and plenty warm-hot enough, the hottest air eases ( especially in places impacted by more clouds and showers-thunderstorms ).
European 51-Member 850 MB MEAN Temp Anomalies Forecast – Days 1 to 5
While remaining warmer than average, the hottest air and largest temperature anomalies retrogress westward and become centered upon the Rockies and Inter-Mountain West and West Coast during next week ( July 26-30 ).
European 51-Member 850 MB MEAN Temp Anomalies Forecast – Days 6 to 10
Meanwhile, time will tell if highest elevations can break 80 degrees for the first time this year and if middle elevations, and hollows north of the High Knob Massif, can break the 90 degree mark for the first time this year ( and for the first time officially since back in Summer 2012 ).
Wise has not officially reached 90 degrees since back on July 1, 2012 with MAXIMUM temperatures for recent years including:
Wise National Weather Service Station Highest Annual Temperature
85 degrees in 2013 84 degrees in 2014 86 degrees in 2015
