Tropical Downpours & Booming Thunderstorms Will Be Possible At Times Into This Weekend – Some Storms Could Be Strong To Locally Severe In Addition To The Greatest Threats Of Lightning & Heavy Rain That Can Cause Localized Water Problems
The period from late Wednesday into Friday afternoon will bear close watching for an increase in coverage of tropical downpours in rain showers and thunderstorms, amid a high water content air mass. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall will be possible in places.
Remain alert if heavy rain develops over or upstream of your location. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches, warnings, advisories.
Overnight Into Wednesday Morning
Hazy & humid. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. SW-W winds generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday Afternoon
A chance of showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy and humid. Light northerly winds ( outside any storms ). Temperatures varying from 70s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Hazy & humid. A chance of showers and downpours in thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. Light winds. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
Thursday Afternoon
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy & very humid. Winds SW-WNW 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from low-mid 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Showers & downpours in thunderstorms. Hazy & very humid. Winds WNW-NW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy with showers & downpours in thunderstorms. SW-W winds generally 10 mph or less outside any showers and storms. Temperatures varying from the upper 60s to lower 70s to the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Weather Discussion – Wet Vs. Dry
July 2016 has found the mountain region amid a battle zone between wetness and dryness, with both forces competing for control of the mountain landscape.
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
The above view was captured as heavy rain was moving into the City of Norton late on Monday, with 1.32″ falling rapidly into the official NWS rain gauge at the Norton Water Plant ( boosting the July tally to 6.23″ and 2016 to 32.57″ ).
Meanwhile, other places had little rain with just 0.04″ measured in my official rain gauge at Clintwood 1 W ( 3.36″ during July ).
University Of Virginia’s College At Wise – NWS Observer Layton Gardner
The other story has been the heat. Official National Weather Service observer Layton Gardner, of UVA-Wise, recorded the first 90 degree day of 2016 on Sunday ( it is listed above as being the 24-hour MAX for the period that ended during the morning of July 25 ).
That marks a Lemon-Aide Day in Wise with it being the first official 90 degree day in more than 4 years, since July 1, 2012. Hitting 90 degrees in Wise is a big deal since it rarely occurs.
The longest stretch with no 90 degree days in Wise was 13 years, and occurred during the 1967-1979 period when the highest temp observed reached 89 degrees. The hottest temperature that has ever been observed in Wise reached a sizzling 95 degrees on June 30 in 2012 ( record keeping began in 1955 ).
Clintwood 1 W – Official NWS Observer Wayne Browning
I recorded the first official 90 degree day in 4 years for Clintwood on Saturday ( July 23 ), with 91 degrees listed as the 24-hour MAX ending during the morning of July 24.
Average July 2016 daily maximums being in the low-mid 80s for Clintwood and Wise.
Black Mountain MesoNET – July 1-25, 2016 Observations
Higher up in elevation, at the Black Mountain MesoNet site, several days have now managed to break 80 degrees at the 4031 foot level. The daily average MAX being 75.8 degrees.
*Temperatures atop the High Knob Massif tend to run a tad lower than at the Black Mountain MesoNet, and will be posted in coming months into next summer as data collection increases.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast – Next 60 Hours
The high-resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( above ) looks like it has caught a bad case of the measles, which is the model’s way of saying that “big downpours are coming…I just don’t know exactly when and where they will strike until storms actually develop.”
Folks in Wise County will just have to keep fingers crossed that the 9.00-10.20″ MAX during the next 10 days will be bogus, as forecast by the GFS Model ( below ), or at the least will not fall all at once!!
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 10 Days
The focus through the next few days will be on increasing chances for tropical downpours which, as has been seen during recent days, can drop a lot of water quickly!
My forecast for tropical downpours and possible water problems, first issued back during the weekend, came true and will remain valid through coming days as the air mass becomes even more humid.
Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings-advisories that may be needed.
