Mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. WNW-NW winds mostly less than 10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the mid-upper 60s.
Thursday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm for the season. Light SW-W winds. Temperatures varying from 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley of eastern Tennessee ).
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Areas of valley fog. Winds SW-WNW 5-10 mph along middle-upper elevation ridges & plateaus. Temperatures varying from upper 50s-lower 60s in cooler valleys to the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Friday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. More humid. Small chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm. Light & variable winds. Temps varying from 70s in upper elevations to the middle-upper 80s ( hotter south into the Great Appalachian Valley ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Continued unseasonably hot for the season. Small chance of a hit-miss shower or storm. Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from 70s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 80s ( hotter south into the Great Valley ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Small chance of showers. Winds becoming NW-NNE at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temps dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s ( coolest at highest elevations ).
Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be likely by Sunday Night into Monday, with coolest conditions expected amid mountain valleys at middle-upper elevations.
Weather Discussion ( Dry & Warm )
The early Meteorological Autumn season of 2016 finds the Mountain Empire caught amid a dry weather pattern that is being dominated by a sinking air regime.
Wide Floor of High Elevation Wetland Valley In High Knob Massif – September 6
The sinking air has allowed for large day-to-night temperature spreads, especially amid higher mountain valleys, with 40s and 50s felt during this first week of September 2016.
Unseasonable warmth ( heat ) by day will continue through the first half of this weekend until a cold front passes by Saturday Night into Sunday. While a chance for showers, or a thunderstorm, in hit-miss fashion can not be ruled out most of the time ( and many places ) will remain dry.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast
While drier, lower dewpoint air, will again surge across the mountains Sunday into Monday, to generate more cool nights, unseasonable warmth returns by day as 500 MB heights remain well above average for this time during much of next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomaly Forecast
This could add on yet more 90s for the Great Valley to pad what by then will be an all-time record number of days with 90 degree or higher temperatures during a year.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast
Cooler nights from Sunday into early next week are not really reflected on these graphics, since days trend back above to much above average, amid sinking air, to keep MEAN temperatures above average through much of next week.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomaly Forecast
Although the change of seasons is really showing up at high latitudes, and high elevations in the Rockies, it appears that the Mountain Empire will have to wait until some point in the second half of September-early October before feeling more than just lower dewpoint ( dry air ) induced cooling at night ( i.e., a strong surge of true Canadian air ).
*Up to 10″ of snow was reported during this first week of September in Showdown, Montana, within the Little Belt Mountains well to the north-northeast of Bozeman.
The second half of September is getting close, so stay tuned as we watch autumn changes increase across the Northern Hemisphere during coming weeks.
