Partly-mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. E-SSE winds generally less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from 50-55 degrees within cooler mountain valleys to the low-mid 60s.
Friday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Winds becoming N to NE at mostly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from 70-75 degrees in upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear. Winds N-NE at mostly less than 10 mph along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from low-mid 50s in cooler mountain valleys to low-mid 60s. Areas of valley fog ( especially along main rivers-lakes ).
Saturday Afternoon
Partly cloudy. Winds NNW-NNE at mostly less than 10 mph. Temps varying from low-mid 70s in upper elevations to the low-mid 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly clear. Areas of valley fog. Winds light & variable. Temperatures varying from 50s in cooler mountain valleys to the low-middle 60s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of a hit-miss shower or thunderstorm. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 70-75 degrees in the upper elevations to the lower-middle 80s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
The potential for the first mountain valley frost of the season, especially in mid-upper elevation valleys, is being monitored for the middle of next week ( fog will be likely in river valleys ). If a cut-off upper low develops over the region this will limit frost potential, so stay tuned for later updates.
Weather Discussion ( Nice Saturday )
A great weather day graced the 10th Annual High Knob Naturalist Rally during Saturday, with a large turn out enjoying the many activities offered.
Majestic Late PM Light In High Valley of High Knob Massif – September 24, 2016
As expected, the afternoon MAX reached the low-middle 70s following morning MINS in the low-mid 50s.
High Knob Massif High Valley MesoNET – 11:00 AM to 4:50 PM
The Saturday PM MAX reached 74 degrees at one high valley location, with another sensor located in the upper valley recording a MAX of only 72 degrees. Humidity levels and temps were higher than typical for this time of year, of course, but conditions did feel nice ( even cool through the morning ) in the shade during the PM.
Previous Discussion
A pleasant week of weather conditions in the mountains will continue into Saturday, with nearly ideal temperatures expected for the 10th Annual High Knob Naturalist Rally.
*As always this is sponsored by The Clinch Coalition and their supporters and is an awesome event for all ages. And it’s free, within the Clinch Ranger’s District’s Jefferson National Forest.
Fern Glade In Upper Valley of Big Cherry Basin – September 20, 2016
Max temperatures in the upper valley of Big Cherry Lake basin reached 74 degrees during September 11-20, with a mean daily high of around 71 degrees ( 3200 ft elevation ).
Conditions on Saturday ( September 24 ) should be similar amid the High Knob Lake Recreation Area, at an average elevation of 3500-3600 feet above mean sea level. Warm for this time of year, but pleasant versus lower elevations within the Clinch, Powell, and Holston drainage basins.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Next 84-Hours
The NAM 12 KM Model, as well as the GFS and now European, are forecasting a chance for showers & thunderstorms to be on the increase during Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front that should usher in the coolest air mass of the early autumn season by Tuesday-Wednesday ( September 27-28 ).
Operational European Model 850 MB Temp Anomalies – DAYS 5-9
The most recent European Ensemble MEAN has trended closer to the operational run of the model, increasing the odds that cooling will be significant during Sept 27-29.
European 51-Member MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies
Although the upper air trough next week will be progressive and lift back out, with upper ridge formation occurring once again, lingering lower dewpoint air in wake of the upper trough will allow nights ( especially in valleys ) to continue running on the cool side through the final days of September 2016.
