Cloudy then becoming partly cloudy by morning. Winds W-NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures dropping into the 40s-low 50s by morning. Local areas of valley fog.
Friday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Winds becoming westerly less than 10 mph. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations to upper 60s to lower 70s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread developing between colder valleys & milder mountain ridges-plateaus. SSW-WSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 30-35 degrees in colder valleys to the lower-middle 50s on exposed ridges. Areas of valley frost & fog.
Saturday Afternoon
Sunny & unseasonably warm. SSW-WSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly clear ( some high clouds ). Winds SW-W 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges and plateaus. Temperatures varying from the upper 30s to lower 40s in colder valleys to the mid-upper 50s.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. Unseasonably warm. Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in upper elevations to mid-upper 70s.
Weather Discussion ( Dry Pattern )
A dry autumn pattern will continue to grip the mountain region through at least the next week, with a return to the unseasonable warmth experienced during much of October.
American Beech In Lower Elevations – October 25, 2016
With 1.27″ of moisture officially recorded at the City of Norton Water Plant this looks to end as the 2nd driest October on record behind the 0.55″ measured in October 2000.
Around 2.50″ of total precipitation has fallen at the summit level of the High Knob Massif during October. Much below average and a simply huge difference from the 7.00″ to 10.00″ observed during the past two October’s ( in 2014 and 2015 ).
This will likely also end as the 2nd driest October on record in Clintwood where the 0.78″ measured is behind the 0.33″ observed during October 2000 ( records date back 50+ years to 1964 ).
USA Drought Monitor
This is clearly short-term dryness for the High Knob Massif area where Summer 2016 was wet. The past two months featuring much below average rainfall.
That is around –3.50” below average for this time of year.
Precipitation so far this year in the City of Norton is already above 2007 ( 39.69″ ) and 1999 ( 42.44″ ), the two driest years on record since recording began in 1983.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 500 MB Height Anomalies – Next 6-10 Days
This does not ease the dryness now, which is likely to worsen some during the next 7-10 days heading through most of the first week in November.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 1-5
Decreasing sun angles, especially in the mountains, at this time of year helps reduce evaporation rates, but continued unseasonable warmth will work to partly offset this.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 6-10
A trend toward colder, wetter conditions is being shown by the latest European Weeklies for the mid-late portion of the new month of November. This has been a period that I have targeted for a while ( mid-November ) now as being the time period when the orographic forcing season would begin to exert a notable influence upon the mountain region ( this will, of course, be dependent upon the synoptic pattern changing from that presently observed ).
