Forest fire conditions will worsen as the pressure gradient increases in advance of a cold front by late Thursday into Friday, before easing with increasing moisture, rising RH and cold air, this weekend.
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly clear. Cold. Winds W-NW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps varying from 18-25 degrees in colder valleys to the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s along exposed ridges.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds WSW-WNW 5-10 mph. Temps varying from middle-upper 40s at highest elevations to the middle to upper 50s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Winds westerly at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation ridges. Temps varying from 30s in colder valleys to the low-mid 40s.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly-mostly sunny. W-NW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Light winds except NW at 5-10 mph along upper elevation ridges. Large vertical temp spread from frosty valleys to exposed ridges. Temps varying from the 20s in colder valleys to the low-mid 40s on exposed ridges.
The first significant blast of wintry weather is being monitored for this weekend, with upsloping NW winds and the potential for rain showers to change to snow. Accumulating snow may occur at high elevations. Stay tuned for later updates on this developing blast of cold conditions.
Weather Discussion ( Weekend Blast )
The main focus this week is on development of the first major winter storm of the 2016-17 season in the lee of the Rockies, with a track northeast toward the upper Lakes.
Looking Toward High Knob Massif Along Horizon – Birch Knob of Pine Mountain
Some leaves and autumn color remain visible across lower-middle elevations to illustrate the anomalous nature of Autumn 2016 in the mountains. Frosty cold nights during this past week show; however, that the pattern is changing, albeit slowly for those fighting wild fires across the region.
My confidence is high that this weekend through the remainder of November will begin to generate conditions that will help ease the wild fire situation, and dryness of the surfaces. It begins with formation of the first major winter storm of this season in lee of the Rockies.
European Model MSLP and 850 MB Forecast At 7 AM Thursday – November 17
Although moisture transport into the warm sector is not forecast to be what we really want, some rain will become likely as the storm deepens and generates a strong pressure gradient. Initially, this will cause worse fire conditions in advance of the rain Thursday Night and Friday.
European Model MSLP and 850 MB Forecast At 7 PM Sunday – November 20
Rain showers will become likely into early Saturday with a rush of cold air following by late Saturday into Sunday and Monday. A flow across the Great Lakes will carry moisture south into the windward slopes of the Appalachians, with snow becoming possible ( likely at high elevations ).
How much moisture reaches the southern Appalachians will depend upon the flow and that will in part be determined by low pressure formation over the Northeastern USA by this weekend. Significant snow accumulations will be most likely along the eastern West Virginia highlands. Stay tuned for later updates on this developing winter blast.
