An ALERT For Accumulating Snowfall Will Likely Be Needed For Late Monday Into Tuesday
Rain and snow will develop across the mountain area Monday afternoon, with mostly all snow above 3000-3500 feet elevation. Preliminary snow amounts of 2″ to 6″ are expected at elevations above 2000 feet into Tuesday. Bitterly cold air with additional upslope snow showers is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Thursday Night Into Friday Morning
Becoming windy & cloudy. Rain developing. Downpours likely. Thunder possible. SW to WSW winds increasing to 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, then dropping around and after sunrise.
Friday Morning Through Friday Afternoon
Showers mixing with or changing to snow at mid-upper elevations before ending by mid-morning to mid-day. A light accumulation possible on mountain peaks. Becoming partly to mostly sunny. Windy and turning colder. NW-NNW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures falling into the 30s to lower 40s at middle-lower elevations along & north-northwest of the High Knob Massif, and into the 20s to lower 30s at upper elevations ( milder leeward of the mountains into the Great Valley ). Wind chills dropping into the 20s & 30s, with 10s at highest elevations.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Mostly clear early then increasing mid-high altitude clouds. Cold. NW-N winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures dropping into the low-mid 10s to low 20s ( coldest upper elevations ). Wind chills in the single digits and 10s, except below zero in gusts on highest mountain ridges in upper elevations.
Saturday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Unseasonably cold for the season. Winds northerly at generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures from lower-middle 20s at highest elevations to the 30s at middle-lower elevations.
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. NNW-NNE winds generally under 10 mph. Cold. Temperatures varying from single digits to mid 10s in upper elevations to the low-mid 20s on exposed mid elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.
A Major Winter Storm will be the main event across the eastern USA through mid week. Locally the trend has been toward development of wet snowfall at middle to upper elevations late Monday into Tuesday, with a rain-snow mixture at lower elevations ( below 2000 feet ). Bitterly cold air & upslope snow showers ( low density snow ) are expected by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Weather Discussion ( Pay The Piper )
A gorgeous late afternoon-early evening on the campus of UVA-Wise was deceptive, as the Ole Man of Winter plots to make us pay for a mild Winter 2016-17 season!
Beautiful Early Evening – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise – March 9, 2017
A series of 3 waves will be impacting the mountain region into early next week, with the third wave of the triplet now looking to become the most potent ( as often is the case ).
JKL Doppler At 2:10 AM Friday – Bright Banding With Snow Aloft
Wave number 1 will generate overnight-predawn rain that may change to snow before it ends, with any accumulation likely being above 3200-3500 feet in elevation.
Wave number 2 has been trending farther and farther south, with the axis of heaviest snowfall now expected across the state of Tennessee ( 5 to 7 days ago this axis was along the great Ohio River with 12″ of snow shown in HTS ).
*Up until the 00z run on March 10 ( 7 PM March 9 ) the operational European Model had adjusted the snow band southward on every single run. I have been doing this a long time and that type of consistent adjustment is not often observed.
**The southward adjustment in the storm track resumed during March 10 with the latest European Model run forecasting the heaviest snow to be south of Mount LeConte in SW NC.
GFS Model Total Snowfall Forecast To 8:00 AM Monday – March 13, 2017
Wave number 3 will come out of the Gulf of Mexico and become a bomb of a cyclone as it trends toward a Miller A storm track, along and off the East Coast, during the early to middle portions of next week.
GFS Model Total Snowfall Forecast To 8:00 AM Wednesday – March 15, 2017
The exact track of this wave is yet to be set, which will be very important into Monday as a band of heavy, wet snow could impact portions of the Mountain Empire ( or all the area ) as a low pressure moves out of the Gulf to along the Carolina-Virginia coast ( a slight inland track could cause a crippling snowfall for portions of the region, while a track along and just off the coast would cause lesser impacts ).
Once the storm lifts north and bombs it will become about upslope NW-N flow snowfall that is likely to generate some significant amounts along the Cumberland and Allegheny mountains, and the windward side of the Blue Ridge, during early-middle portions of next week as unseasonably cold air engulfs the region.
The Bottom Line…Much colder ( bitter ) air will be felt Friday into Saturday as winter returns. The second of three waves will cause snow to develop late Saturday into Sunday Morning south toward the Great Smokies, with latest models suggesting heaviest snow might even be south of Mount LeConte. No snow is now expected farther north across the Cumberlands.
Wave number 3 now looks to become the strongest, and most potent, as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend with movement northeast to off the Atlantic Coast where it will bomb out into an intense low pressure. Heavy to potentially crippling snow could result for portions of the region, and this will need to be closely followed in coming days.
