Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges. SW-W winds generally under 10 mph along mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 10s to mid 20s in colder valleys to the 30s on exposed mountain ridges.
Monday Afternoon
Increasing clouds. Milder. SSW-WSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low-mid 50s in upper elevations to the lower-middle 60s.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Cloudy & windy. A chance of showers & thunderstorms developing overnight into morning. SSW to WSW winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, at elevations below 2700 feet. SW-W winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temps widespread in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Fog becoming dense at high elevations with orographic clouds.
Due to a quicker frontal passage, showers and thunderstorms will mainly be south of the Cumberland Mountains, with low clouds and fog not expected to be as much of a factor.
Tuesday Afternoon
Partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. A chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms. Winds NW-N at 5-10 mph with some higher gusts. Temps from low-mid 50s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 60s.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Turning chilly. Winds N at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures dropping into low-mid 20s to the low-mid 30s. Wind chill factors in the 10s and 20s ( coldest at highest elevations ).
Wednesday Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Chilly. Winds N-NNE at 5-15 mph, with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the 30s in upper elevations to the middle-upper 40s ( only low 30s at highest elevations within the High Knob Massif ). Wind chill factors in the 20s and 30s ( coldest at highest elevations ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Cold. Some high clouds possible overnight into morning. Large vertical temperature spread forming between colder valleys and milder ridges. Winds shifting SE-SSW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from 10s to lower 20s in colder valleys to the lower 30s on exposed mountain ridges.
Weather Discussion ( Spring Pattern )
A shift from a winter dominated pattern into one featuring early spring conditions ( with UP-DOWN temp fluctuations ) is expected through the next week to ten days as the mean upper air ridge position shifts back toward the western portion of North America.
Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif At 10:19 AM Sunday – March 19, 2017
Some light snow and a nice coating of rime decorated the high country into Sunday morning. Although cloud bases later lifted it was a chilly and mostly cloudy Sunday in the Cumberlands.
Majestic St. Patrick’s Day Sunrise Above Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge – March 17
Wayne Riner Photograph Thoughts… St. Patrick’s Day Sunrise: The sunrise color lasted only a few moments, but for those few seconds, the sun colored the world the colors of gold and yellow. Soon, gray covered the sky.
Mother Nature has blessed the mountain area with some beautiful atmospheric displays in recent days, as captured by my friend Wayne Riner ( above ) and myself below.
Majestic Sunbeams From Flag Rock Recreation Area of High Knob Massif – March 18
Light winds and a temperature of 28 degrees at 11:00 PM in Clintwood signaled, to no surprise, frosty cold conditions would rule mountain valleys into Monday morning.
Upper elevation valleys, above 2700-3000 feet, would be coldest with 10s to lower 20s versus temperatures that will hover in the 30s ( or slowly rise ) overnight into Monday morning on exposed mountain ridges.
Strengthening nocturnal temperature inversions at this time of year often signal a milder day upcoming, and such will be the case Monday to contrast with the chilly air felt Saturday afternoon and Sunday.
SW winds and sunshine before increasing PM clouds will set the stage for a temperature surge in valleys Monday as mixing breaks up the strong overnight inversion. Add in downsloping air and many valleys will experience 35-40+ degree temperature rises.
Focus by tonight into Tuesday will be on increasing winds and the development of showers & thunderstorms.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast – Next 84-Hours
As is often the case when convection begins to rule, models are not in agreement regarding where heaviest rainfall amounts will occur.
GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast – Next 84-Hours
The MEAN of the 51-Member European Ensembles is predicting heaviest amounts across southern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia and northeastern Tennessee, which seems reasonable given the air flow and orographics.
Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook For Tuesday ( March 21 )
Some thunderstorms could be strong to locally severe and the above graphic is expected to change with new updates.
Colder air returns later Wednesday into Thursday with more frost and below freezing temperatures expected.
