Mostly clear ( some high clouds ). Large vertical temp difference between colder valleys and milder mountain ridges. Light winds. Temps varying from 30s in colder mountain valleys to the 50s along exposed ridges. Frost possible within the coldest valleys.
Good Friday Afternoon
Partly sunny & unseasonably warm. Small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Light SW to W winds. Temperatures varying from 60s to lower 70s at highest elevations to the lower-middle 80s.
Friday Night Into Saturday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy ( mid-high clouds ). Milder. SSW-WSW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Light winds in valleys. Temps varying from 40s in mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed mountain ridges-plateaus.
Saturday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms. SSW to SW winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the mid-upper 70s.
Saturday Night Into Easter Sunday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Mild. Winds SSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures generally from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.
Easter Sunday Afternoon
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures widespread in the 60s to lower 70s.
Weather Discussion ( Wetter Pattern )
Spring-time in the mountains is currently featuring large temperature spreads in both the vertical ( between valleys and ridges ) and diurnally ( between night and day ).
Although colder mountain valleys dropped to frosty levels during Thursday morning ( around or below freezing in the coldest valleys at upper elevations ), and will again fall into 30s on Friday morning, this is a warm pattern that looks to continue through coming days.
Large-flowered Trillium ( Trillium grandiflorum ) – Lower Elevations on April 12, 2017
Increasing low-level moisture will help to narrow temperature spreads ( both between valleys-ridges and between night and day ) and increase chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into much of next week.
Chances for hit-miss showers or local thunderstorms will begin to increase by Saturday afternoon ( only a very small chance of something isolated popping Friday afternoon ).
NAM 3 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Up To 8:00 PM Saturday – April 15, 2017
A wetter pattern is being advertised by the medium range models through the second half of April, which at this time of year typically implies rounds of showers-thunderstorms with the emphasis being on rounds.
There will be many dry hours in between upper air disturbances that trigger this activity. Only if a front stalls over the mountain area will activity have the opportunity to become prolonged. That will be an element to watch ( the positioning of fronts ) through the next couple of weeks as upper air trough formation into New England may offer the chance for an enhanced southwest-northeast temperature gradient to form across the eastern USA ( generating a stormy zone over or close to the Mountain Empire ).
