ALERT For Local Downpours Of Heavy Rainfall Into At Least Friday – Caution Continues To Be Advised Along Creeks Draining The High Knob Massif
A high water content air mass will continue over the mountain area into at least Friday. Showers and downpours with heavy to locally excessive rainfall will remain possible.
Due to heavy rainfall Monday into early Tuesday, steep creeks draining the High Knob Massif continue to run very strong with ROARING water. Caution is advised around this swift water.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Mostly cloudy. Humid & hazy. Areas of valley fog. Chance of a sprinkle or rain shower. Winds SSE to SSW winds 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures widespread in the 60s.
Monday Morning Through Monday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of hit-miss showers and thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Light & variable winds outside any storms. Temperatures varying from upper 60s to low 70s in upper elevations to the middle to upper 70s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ). Areas of dense fog possible at highest elevations.
Monday Night Into Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Humid & hazy. Areas of dense fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Winds SSW-WSW 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Afternoon
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph along mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the middle-upper 70s ( warmer south into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SSW-WSW at mainly less than 10 mph along ridges. Temperatures varying from upper 50s to upper 60s. Areas of dense fog.
Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Afternoon
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Light winds. Temperatures varying from upper 60s to low 70s in upper elevations to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SSW-WSW 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, along mid to upper elevation mountain ridges. Humid & hazy with areas of fog. Temperatures widespread in the 60s to lower 70s.
A stronger cold front and upper air trough is being monitored for later this week into race weekend at Bristol. The strength & south-ward progression of this feature will help determine conditions. Stay tuned for updates.
Weather Discussion ( Muggy Air )
Updated Discussion
A general 2.00″ to 3.00″ of rain fell across the High Knob Massif area into the day Tuesday ( August 15 ), with strong rises on creeks and local high water.
Big Stony Creek of High Knob Massif
Big Stony Creek crested 0.2 feet above flood stage in northern Scott County on Tuesday as run-off roared out of the high country. Both the Upper Norton Reservoir and the Big Cherry Lake are now overflowing their spillways.
A general 6.00″ to 8.00″ of rainfall has now been observed across southern Wise County and northern Scott County during the first half of August.
Saturated ground and the continuation of a high water content air mass increases the odds that downpours will cause additional, perhaps more significant, water problems in at least localized locations into Friday. I have posted an alert for everyone living and traveling across this water logged mountain terrain.
Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and your favorite media sources for possibles advisories or warnings that may be needed during the next few days.
Previous Discussion
A muggy mass of air will continue to grip the mountain landscape through most of this week, with occasional showers and downpours being possible at times.
Thick Vegetation In Backwaters of Big Cherry Lake – August 13, 2017
A little less humid air was felt Sunday ( August 13 ) with MAX temperatures varying from upper 60s to upper 70s ( 79 degrees Clintwood and upper 60s on coolest northern slopes within the High Knob Massif ) in the Cumberland Mountains.
Towering Cumulus Over Powell Valley of the High Knob Massif
An abundance of clouds and low-level moisture will help to hold temperatures down, but muggy air will make it feel uncomfortable at most elevations.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 AM Thursday – August 17, 2017
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but models will also continue to struggle to pinpoint where that occurs well in advance of developing activity ( therefore, nowcasts or very short-term forecasts, based on Doppler radar, will remain most accurate during this type of pattern ).
GFS Model Total Rainfall Forecast To 8 PM Friday – August 18, 2017
A stronger cold front and upper air trough will be approaching the mountain region by later this week into the upcoming weekend. The speed, strength and south-ward progress of this feature will be key to conditions experienced during race week-weekend ( and perhaps during the eclipse on August 21 ).
