Partly to mostly clear. Winds shifting to NW and decreasing to generally less than 10 mph along mountain ridges-exposed plateaus ( with some higher gusts along the highest ridges ). Temps varying from 20 to 25 degrees in colder valleys at upper elevations to the 30s by morning on exposed middle elevation ridges & plateaus. A period of rime formation possible along highest NW facing crests.
Tuesday Afternoon
Mostly sunny and seasonally chilly. Light & variable winds. Temperatures varying from upper 30s to lower 40s within upper elevations to the low-middle 50s ( warmer southward into the Great Valley ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Mostly clear during the evening, then increasing clouds overnight into morning. A rapid evening temp drop in mountain valleys. SSE-SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and exposed plateaus. Temperatures varying from the 20s-lower 30s in colder mountain valleys to the mid-upper 40s. Temps rising into the overnight in valleys that recouple to the boundary layer wind field. Wind chills in the 30s along high mountain crest lines.
Wednesday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially near and west of the Virginia-Kentucky stateline. Winds S to SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from upper 40s to lower 50s in upper elevations to the upper 50s to low 60s. Wind chills in 30s-low 40s at highest elevations.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Gusty across ridges. Winds SSE-S at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges-plateaus below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ( coolest within mountain valleys sheltered from wind ).
Weather Discussion ( Wintry Recap )
The first real wintry blast of the season generated some nice scenes across the mountain area, mainly at mid-upper elevations, where nearly all accumulations occurred.
Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge – Elevation 2650 Feet
As I expected, the greatest amount of frozen precipitation and snow occurred along the Cumberland-Allegheny Front corridor, where air is initially lifted into upper elevations of the Appalachians on NW-N upslope flow. Snow amounts became less leeward of these front ranges, which included a notable decrease east of the spine of the Great Smokies into western North Carolina. The greatest snow depth reported reached 8″ at Canaan Mountain in northern West Virginia.
Storm Event Reports
Tri-Cities, TN NWS: 0″ ( 0.89″ Storm Total Precip )
Clintwood 1 W NWS: Trace ( 1.28″ Storm Total Precip )
*City of Norton WP: 1.0″ ( 1.54″ Storm Total Precip )
**Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif: 3.0″ ( 0.56″+ of Frozen Precipitation )
Mount LeConte, TN: 3.0″ ( 1.70″ Storm Total Precip )
Canaan Mountain, WV: 8.4″ ( 2.41″ Storm Total Precip )
Beech Mountain, NC: 1.0″ ( 2.21″ Storm Total Precip )
Mount Mitchell, NC: 0.5″ ( 3.61″ Storm Total Precip )
*Mean depth at the City of Norton Water Plant, at the northern base of the High Knob Massif ( elevation 2342 feet ), reached 0.5″ with around 1.0″ ( 0.10″ water equivalent ) of total snowfall.
Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif At 3:37 AM Monday – October 30, 2017
**Freezing rain initially generated icing before a change to snow at the summit level. More than 0.56″ fell in frozen form, with more than 0.30″ as snow water equivalent. The greatest depth of snow developed between sunset Sunday and the early hours of Monday with additional snow showers that recovered roads. This event produced the first single digit wind chills in the high country.
European Model 850 MB Temp Anomalies At 8 AM Monday – October 30, 2017
It was a cold start to the work week with Monday AM temperatures varying from upper 10s to upper 20s within the Norton-Wise and High Knob Massif area ( including in Clintwood with a MIN of 28 degrees over bare ground ).
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean Temp Anomalies Forecast: 8 AM Nov 2
Chilly conditions begin diminishing during late week into next week as the large eastern USA upper air trough does a retrograde movement into western North America.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: 7 AM Nov 6
The main uncertainty in the forecast during coming days will be how far east do waves of rain get, and that will be dependent in part upon where an upper ridge axis becomes aligned as noted above at 7 AM Monday ( 7 AM since time will have fallen back 1-hour to yield earlier model runs ).
A wet, stormy pattern will develop within the baroclinic zone between the Rockies and Appalachians, with details regarding the placement of this zone to be better resolved by models in coming days. Stay tuned for later updates.
