Strong SSE-SSW Winds Will Be Developing By Late Monday Into Monday Night As The Next Weather System Arrives With Colder Air & Falling Temps Expected During Tuesday ( January 23 )
Former Alert
Remain Alert For Possible Black Ice From Refreezing
Strong & gusty winds will continue to generate notable wind chills along mountain ridges and plateaus through Saturday, with low cloud formation likely along and to southwest of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide enhancing chilly conditions ( general cloudiness across the remainder of the area with possible downslope breaks northeast of the high terrain ).
Overnight Into Saturday Morning
Increasing clouds overnight into morning. Windy along mountain ridges & exposed plateaus. SW winds 8-18 mph, with higher gusts, at elevations below 2700 feet. Winds SW at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 10s in colder valleys to the lower 30s, with valley temps tending to rise toward morning. Wind chills in the 10s and 20s.
Saturday Morning Through The Afternoon
Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Downslope breaks in northern portions of Wise-Dickenson and Buchanan counties. SW winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts below 2700 feet. WSW-WNW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts, at elevations above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 30s to mid 40s. Wind chill factors in the 20s & 30s ( coldest at upper elevations ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds SW-W at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and exposed plateaus. Temperatures in the 20s in sheltered mountain valleys versus near steady or slowing rising in the 30s to low-mid 40s on mountain ridges. Wind chills in the 20s & 30s, coldest at the upper elevations.
Sunday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds S-WSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the low-mid 40s to the low-middle 50s. Wind chills in the 30s along upper elevation mountain ridges.
Sunday Night Into Monday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. SSE-S winds 5-15 mph on mountain ridges-plateaus below 3000 feet. S-SW winds 5-15 mph with higher gusts at upper elevations. Temperatures from 20s to low 30s in colder valleys to the 40s on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-exposed plateaus.
Monday Afternoon
Mostly cloudy & windy. SSE-S winds 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. S-SSW winds 20-30 mph, with gusts 40-50+ mph, at elevations above 2700 feet. Temps varying from 40s at highest elevations to the mid-upper 50s.
Weather Discussion ( Slow Warming )
Saturday Aftenoon Update
I updated for removal of drizzle chances this afternoon, leaving in a small chance for tonight with air not far from being saturated at high elevations.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise – Elevation 2680 feet – January 20, 2018
Temperatures have mainly climbed into the 40 to 45 degree range, amid gusty S-SW winds.
Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge – Elevation 2650 feet – January 20, 2018
The January 20 MODIS satellite image did capture cloud breaks across portions of Dickenson-Buchanan counties and into adjacent counties.
MODIS Satellite Image For January 20, 2018
Previous Discussion
Low sun angles ( 32 degree solar angle in Wise on Jan 19 ) and snow cover impacted air temperatures Friday and will continue to do the same through Saturday, with strong and gusty winds at mid-upper elevations adding to the chill.
MODIS Terra Satellite Image For January 19, 2018
Although much milder than the peak of recent bitter cold, air remained chilly on the Campus of UVA-Wise Friday with notable chill factors being created by gusty SW winds.
Several interesting features on the MODIS Terra image for January 19, with widespread snow cover remaining from the Piedmont of North Carolina and Virginia across the Appalachians into the Midwest, and a deck of low clouds creeping up the lower Mississippi Valley.
NAM 12 KM Model 850 MB RH-Wind Forecast At 1 PM Saturday – January 20, 2018
If low-level moisture over the lower Mississippi Valley is lifted up over the mountains into Saturday it will really keep the lid on air temperatures, with best odds of this happening being where the low-level SW flow rises beneath the 850 MB field. Temperatures may struggle to get above freezing atop the high country during Saturday, such that any travel along Route 619, 238, 237, 704, to note a few, should be done with caution.
Lonesome Pine Airport – Afternoon & Evening of January 19, 2018
Friday afternoon MAXS varied from the low 30s atop the High Knob Massif to 43 degrees in Clintwood; although, most middle to upper elevation locales felt significantly colder with gusty SW winds.
Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge Plateau – Elevation 2650 feet
SW winds are really cranking tonight at mid-upper elevations and are at a threshold where an alert should actually be issued, but I have them headlined at the top.
Black Mountain Mesonet – 1 Hour Snapshot Ending At 12:40 AM January 20, 2018
When factoring in the frequent gusts, conditions continue to feel like the 10s at high elevations and low-mid 20s in Wise. Sheltered mountain valleys are just cold with calm conditions ( 17.6 degrees in Clintwood as of 12:50 AM Saturday ).
The Bottom Line…Gusty winds, low sun angles, and increasing low-level moisture over lingering snow cover will all be working against warming to keep conditions chillier than models indicate, with the most aggressive warming likely Sunday PM into Monday ahead of colder air returning by Monday Night into Tuesday.
If Winter 2017-18 is truly destined to become one of the great cold winters then settings like this will be rather common, with models generating head-fakes for those who bite and warm periods which end up being shorter than models forecast.
Although it appears that winter returns with a real vengeance into February, this can not yet be known for certain. Seasonal snowfall continues to run well below average, so lovers of snow are hoping that the biggest falls of snow are yet to come ( as have often been observed during February-March and even April ). Time will tell.
