ALERT For Torrential Downpours In Thunderstorms Along With Dangerous Lightning And The Possibility Of Local Wind Damage & Hail
A ring of fire convective pattern is expected to dominate mountain area weather conditions during the coming week with periodic disturbances enhancing potential for clusters of thunderstorms. Daytime heating and instability will also trigger localized storms.
Remain tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches and warnings which may be needed during coming days.
Overnight Into Monday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of valley fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. SW winds 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the middle 50s to the middle 60s.
Monday Morning Through The Afternoon
Periods of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds SSW to WSW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts in some storms. Temps varing from the 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to around 80 degrees middle-lower elevations ( especially northwest to north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
A chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds SE-SW at 5-10 mph with higher gusts. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temperatures in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Downpours likely. Winds S-SW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts. Temps varing from upper 60s in upper elevations to the 70s to lower 80s. Warmer south into the Great Valley.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
Chance of showers & thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Winds S to SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on ridges at elevations below 2700 feet. Winds SSW to WSW 10-20 mph with higher gusts above 2700 feet. Areas of fog. Warm and humid with temps in the upper 50s to middle-upper 60s.
Weather Discussion ( Stormy Pattern )
A stormy weather pattern is the main focus of this forecast period as intervals of showers and downpours in booming thunderstorms roam the mountain landscape.
Pickem-Stone Mountain of High Knob Massif – Afternoon of June 9, 2018
A thunderstorm rapidly developed over the High Knob Massif during the mid-late afternoon of June 9, with 0.60″ to 2.00″ of rainfall estimated by Doppler radar centered over the basin heads of Big Cherry Lake, High Knob Lake, and the Norton Reservoirs.
*The temperature on Eagle Knob dropped from an afternoon MAX of 71.1 degrees at 5:40 PM to 59.5 degrees at 6:20 PM. Significant run-off at an elevation above 4100 feet occurred amid the heavy rainfall.
While local, hit-miss gully washing thunderstorms are expected amid unstable air the real driver of the upcoming pattern will be disturbances moving across the mountains in a general WNW upper air flow, north of steamy, heat anchored over the southern Plains & southwestern USA.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5
A possible change during the 6-10 day forecast period by next weekend and the following week is being watched that could enhance the inflow of moisture from the deep tropics.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10
The Bottom Line…A temperate rain forest environment is expected to rule mountain area weather through coming days. Remain alert to changing conditions.
