*Periods of showers and downpours in thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday into Wednesday before a brief decrease in activity, with lower rain chances, develops by Thursday ( July 26 ) as this current upper-level region of low pressure lifts out to the northeast.
Rain chances may remain seasonally low through much of next weekend before ramping back up, but this remains to be seen and will need to be updated as this time period gets closer.
*Another deepening upper-level trough is expected to begin development by next weekend through final days of July, with a heavy to excessive rainfall potential returning by the end of July into the beginning of August.
*This wetter and cooler than average pattern is expected to continue into the final month of Meteorological Summer.
Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Dense fog at highest elevations. Areas of valley fog at lower elevations. Winds SE-S at 10 mph or less, except a few higher gusts on middle-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
Monday Morning Through The Afternoon
Partly-mostly cloudy. A chance of showers & thunderstorms with hit-miss downpours. Light SSE-S winds. Temperatures varying from the upper 60s to lower 70s to the upper 70s to lower 80s ( coolest at upper elevations ).
Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning
Partly-mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or storm. SE-S winds at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures varying from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Areas of fog.
Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms likely. Local downpours. Light winds. Temperatures varying from 60s in upper elevations to the 70s at lower-middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Downpours possible. Areas of dense fog. Winds shifting SW-W. Temperatures varying from the mid-upper 50s to the middle-upper 60s ( coolest in upper elevations ).
Wednesday Afternoon
Showers & thunderstorms likely. Local downpours. Winds NW to N at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, on middle to upper elevation mountain ridges. Areas of fog, widespread at the highest elevations. Temperatures varying from 60s in the upper elevations to the 70s at low-middle elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif-TN Valley Divide.
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms possible through the evening, with local downpours, followed by diminishing activity. Areas of dense fog. Winds WNW-NNW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
**Given significant recent rainfall any heavy or slow moving activity could cause strong water level rises during coming days. Remain alert for changing conditions and to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for any alerts or warnings which may be needed.
Weather Discussion ( Wet Pattern )
Tuesday Afternoon Update
High Knob Massif Webcam – University of Virginia’s College At Wise
Hit-miss afternoon downpours and cool summer air were featured Tuesday, especially within upper elevations in the High Knob Massif where the daytime max held in the 60s. This contrasted with an afternoon high of 78 degrees in Clintwood where conditions had finally remained dry.
*Temperatures dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s after 5:00 PM as rain fell on Eagle Knob and at High Knob Lake, and also cooled significantly where heaviest rains fell into parts of Powell Valley and the City of Norton into portions of northern Scott County.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Day 4-8
Following a break Thursday ( with low rain chances ) the upper air pattern reloads with jet stream dynamics and a feed of tropical moisture setting the stage for more heavy to excessive rainfall during final days of July into early August ( the final month of Meteorological Summer ).
Previous Discussion
A wet and stormy weather pattern will continue to mostly dominate the mountain region through the remainder of July, with a few breaks ( low rain chances July 26 ) in the more organized activity.
Chimney Rock Gorge of High Knob Massif – July 20, 2018
A general 2.00″ to 4.00″ of rain fell across the mountain area during the July 20-22 period, from the high country of the High Knob Massif north to Breaks Interstate Park.
Totals between 3.00″ to 4.00″ fell on Big Cherry Lake basin and in Clintwood ( 3.26″ ), with 2.10″ measured at City of Norton WP. This boosted July rainfall tallies into the 6.00″ to 7.00″ range on Black Mountain and at Big Cherry Dam in the High Knob high country.
Turk’s-cap Lily ( Lilium superbum ) In High Knob High Country – July 14, 2018
Thursday ( July 26 ) is currently the pick day for lowest rain chances in the short-term as the current upper-level low dissipates and lifts out to the northeast.
This will be short-lived as additional upstream waves in the long-wave pattern begin to dive into the eastern USA and deepen ( i.e., develop ) a new trough. With luck the main impact of this will hold off until late in the upcoming weekend or early next week ( July 29-31 period ).
