083018 Forecast

Mountain Area Forecast ( Aug 27-30 )

Weather Headlines

*Above average temperatures will tend to dominate much of this work week within a hazy, maritime tropical ( mT ) air mass.  Showers & thunderstorms, with hit-miss downpours, will be possible ( especially mid-morning to early evening ).

Due to weak winds aloft any shower or thunderstorm will be slow moving and capable of dropping heavy rainfall over local areas.

*The coverage of showers & thunderstorms will increase later this weekend into the Labor Day Holiday period, with downpours.  Temperatures will tend to slightly decline due to an increase in cloudiness and showers-thunderstorms.

*An above average temperature trend is currently expected to continue through the first week of September.

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Areas of fog.  Light S-SW winds generally less than 10 mph on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 50s in valleys at upper elevations to the low-middle 60s.

Monday Morning Through The Afternoon

Partly cloudy.  Chance of hit-miss showers-thunderstorms. A local downpour possible.  Light & variable winds.  Temps varying from low-mid 70s to the low-mid 80s ( coolest at upper elevations above 3000 feet ).

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Partly to mostly clear.  Small chance of a shower or storm.  Light and variable winds becoming SSW-WSW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Areas of fog.  Temperatures varying from upper 50s to lower 60s in cooler valleys to middle-upper 60s.

Tuesday Morning Through The Afternoon

Partly cloudy.  Chance of hit-miss showers-thunderstorms.  Local downpours possible.  Winds S-SW generally less than 10 mph outside any storms.  Temperatures varying from the lower-middle 70s to the lower-middle 80s.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Partly to mostly clear.  Small chance of a shower or storm.  Light and variable winds becoming S-SW at 5-10 mph, with higher gusts, mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Areas of fog.  Temperatures varying from mid-upper 50s to lower 60s in cooler valleys to the middle-upper 60s.

Wednesday Morning Through The Afternoon

Partly cloudy.  A chance of hit-miss, slow moving showers and thunderstorms. Downpours likely in any activity. Light SSW-SW winds generally less than 10 mph.  Temperatures varying from low 70s to the lower 80s ( warmer south into river valleys of the Clinch, Powell, and Holston ).

Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning

Variable clouds.  Chance of a shower or thunderstorms.  Downpours possible.  Areas of fog.  Winds SW-W at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, on mid-upper elevation mountain ridges.  Temperatures mainly in the 60s.

 

Weather Discussion ( More Summer )

A late summer weather pattern will return to dominate conditions through the Labor Day Holiday.  This comes in wake of pleasant conditions in recent days.

High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

Minimum temperatures fell into the 40s in cooler mountain valleys at upper elevations during August 23-25 ( low-mid 40s in coldest locations ).

Summer 2018 has been a little warmer than Summer 2017 within the Big Cherry Lake Valley of the high country.

 High Knob Massif Mesonet
*Big Cherry Lake Valley 2
  June 1-August 25, 2018
Avg. Daily MAX: 70.9 degrees
Avg. Daily MIN: 57.6 degrees
Summer MEAN: 64.2 degrees
Highest Temperature: 79
Lowest Temperature: 46
*MAX temperatures were somewhat higher and MIN temperature were somewhat lower within open portions of the Big Cherry Wetland Valley.  Temps are all National Weather Service calibrated and very accurate.
High Knob Massif Webcam-University Of Virginia’s College At Wise

A notable increase in haze, with some orographic clouds, was observed developing Sunday as a continental Polar air mass gave way to advection of maritime tropical air.

European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 850 MB Temp Anomalies: Days 1-5

Above average temperatures during the next 5 days, on average, will be supported aloft by mean upper air ridging across the southern and eastern USA.

European 51-Member Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 1-5

This basic pattern is expected to continue through the next 10 days, which includes the Labor Day Holiday period.

European 51-Member Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies: Days 6-10