ALERT For Periods Of Rain With Possible Thunderstorms During Wednesday-Friday
Heavy To Excessive Amounts Are Possible
Forecast model trends are shifting the focus for moderate-heavy rain southward, with heaviest amounts now expected in locations along and westward of the Cumberland Mountains.
Expect periods of rain, with possible thunderstorms, during Wednesday into early Thursday followed by a break with record to near record warmth. Additional rounds of rain are expected by late Thursday or early Friday. Remain alert for ponding of water along roadways and for possible strong rises on streams.
GFS 21-Member Ensemble Mean Total Rainfall_Next 84-HoursGEM (Canadian) Model Total Rainfall_Next 84-HoursNAM 3 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast_Next 60-Hours
Although the model trend has clearly been to shift heavier rains southeast, the signal is for heavy to excessive amounts in bands which are yet to be determined. Past climatology with SW flow and strong low-level winds, as being forecast, suggests that the Cumberland Mountains will be within the heavy-excessive rainfall potential with orographic forcing becoming a factor in total amounts.
