Caution For High Water Levels Tuesday Evening Into The Overnight Hours
A general 1.50″ to 2.00″ of rain in the High Knob Massif-Black Mountain area has resulted in creeks rising to near flood stage. High levels are currently being observed along South Fork of Powell River and Big Stony Creek, among other creeks. Caution is advised through tonight.
ALERT For Strong Winds And Cold Wind Chills
Strong westerly winds will produce increasingly cold wind chills into Wednesday morning as temperatures drop into the upper 10s ( highest elevations ) to the upper 20s. Caution is advised.
ALERT For Moderate-Heavy Rain Tuesday With A Chance For Embedded Thunderstorms During The Afternoon-Early Evening
A Flash Flood Watch is officially in effect.
Due to saturated ground the potential for mud and rock slides will also need to be respected. Remain alert for ponding of water in low-lying areas and strong rises on streams.
A change to snow is expected Tuesday evening. Only light accumulations will be possible, mainly at the highest elevations ( dusting up to 1″ ).
Middle Falls of Little Stony Creek Gorge_High Knob Massif
While whitewater looked pretty during the weekend, the volume was still elevated and water gushingly loud to indicate (like any proof is needed) that the mountain landscape is super-saturated.
Part of the reason extends back to February 2018 when a new record was established for wetness in Virginia, with 12.00″ to 14.00″+ falling across the High Knob Massif area. Wetness has ruled the past 13 months.
Month-To-Date Precipitation Observed And Estimated By Doppler
The recent trend has featured heaviest precipitation amounts along and west of the Appalachians, with parts of central North Carolina not measuring any February precipitation.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies_Days 1-5
Amazingly, or ominously, the upcoming pattern will become even more favorable for heavy to excessive precipitation during the next 1-2 weeks.
European 51-Member Ensemble Mean 500 MB Height Anomalies_Days 6-10
A deeper mean trough, and Gulf of Mexico+Pacific Ocean moisture connection, will generate an even better atmospheric setting for heavy to excessive amounts of precipitation in the 5-10+ day period.
Canadian Model Total Precipitation Forecast_Next 10 Days
The European, Canadian, Japanese and GFS model groups are all in basic agreement in this hyper-wet setting, with only details with individual waves varying with respect to timing and placement.
A series of waves embedded in the flow regime can be seen when looking upstream, from the direction that weather systems are coming, across the Pacific.
Due to jet streaks, areas of enhanced upper-level wind speeds, forecast details will be evolving with any of these systems with respect to axes of heaviest precip…but the hyper-active nature can clearly be resolved.
GFS Model 21-Member Ensemble Mean Total Snowfall_Next 10-Days
While it is possible that some of the upcoming precip could be in frozen forms, the setting is one which will be favorable for heavy-excessive precipitation during mid-late February.
This is not breaking news, but it should be made plain that multiple threats for too much precipitation are increasingly likely during the next 1-2 weeks.
The amount of rain and run-off needed to generate flash flooding and flooding will be trending even lower in this type of atmospheric setting (antecedent conditions being partly responsible for recent flooding and numerous mud and rocks slides ).
