ALERT For Strong S-SW Winds Through Today And The Potential Of Strong To Severe Thunderstorms By Late Today And Tonight (March 14)
A powerful low pressure system lifting into the upper Great Lake will continue to generate strong and gusty S-SW winds across the mountains.
The Storm Prediction Center Has A Marginal To Slight Risk Predicted For Counties Along The VA-KY Border
Strong-severe thunderstorms will also be developing by Thursday afternoon west of the Appalachians and will need to be monitored by late today into tonight as they approach from the west and southwest.
Updated Storm Prediction Center Risk
Due to significant wind shear, thunderstorms which can become severe will have a tornado potential.
Updated Storm Prediction Center Tornado Risk
While the main risk will be across central Tennessee and Kentucky, these thunderstorms will need to be closely monitored as they approach the VA-KY stateline by Thursday evening.
Forecast Sounding Above Wise By 2:00 AM Friday_March 15, 2019
Conditions for strong-severe thunderstorms become most favorable by tonight into the early overnight of early Friday ( 55% probability of a supercell using the SPC composite forecast sounding above for Wise ).
HRRR Model Forecast Doppler Radar At 11:00 PM Thursday_March 14, 2019
Storms are moving so fast that conditions will begin to rapidly change after 8:00 PM this evening. The current HRRR Model is predicting a broken line of supercells, or strong-severe thunderstorms, to be just west of the mountains by 11:00 PM.
High shear but limited instability will be competing to spin-up supercell storms, with numerous other parameters favorable for strong to severe storms.
The severe thunderstorm potential rapidly diminishes between 2 AM and 8 AM Friday.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for updates and any possible watches and warnings which may be needed.
