Weather Headlines

*Cloudy and cold conditions, with light snow-flurries, will continue through Monday night into early Tuesday before much drier low-level air arrives. Sub-zero wind chills will continue at highest elevations, with single digits and 10s at lower-middle elevations. Caution is advised.

Update_11:30 PM Monday…Despite anticyclonic flow a plume of low-level moisture transport from the Great Lakes will continue widespread light snow, flurries, and locally heavier snow showers through the overnight into Tuesday morning (most widespread in locations along and west of the Cumberland-Allegheny Front which includes Buchanan, Dickenson & Wise counties in Virginia). Accumulations from a dusting to 1″ of low density snow will be common.

Expect slick road conditions at upper elevations, with increasing slick areas into middle to lower elevations.

Monday Afternoon Update

Roads are snow covered at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif, with slick spots possible or becoming possible on other roads at lower elevations through Monday night in locations along & north-northwest of the Cumberland-Allegheny Front.

A general 1″ to 2″ of low density snow fell at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif, above 3300 feet, with slick morning road conditions above 2500-3000 feet. Rime formation was also observed to mark 30 days with riming since the start of this winter season (rime deposition acts as an important secondary input of moisture to the annual water budget within upper elevations).

The Monday morning drive to work along State Route 706, courtesy of RN Darlene Fields. Wind blown, low density snow easily blew across roadways, despite sublimation which was a much bigger factor than melting amid single digit air temps.

Air temperatures Monday have struggled to break 10 degrees on High Knob, and 20 degrees in Wise, with colder wind chills.

*Cold and gusty NW-N winds will generate bitter wind chills, with single digits and 10s being widespread into Monday. Sub-zero wind chill factors will occur in the upper elevations. Caution is advised.

*Flurries and light snow, with a few snow showers, will be observed through Sunday night into early Monday, especially along and northwest of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide (Cumberland-Allegheny Front). A chance of flurries-light snow will continue to Tuesday.

A little moisture transport from the Great Lakes will support flurries and light snow, but any accumulations are expected to be light in the southern Appalachians with a dusting up to 1″ being possible.

*Cold temperatures will continue through the middle of this week, with prime cooling conditions in mountain valleys during Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. The only missing ingredient (for this time of year) being significant snow depth.

Appalachian frost pockets will be coldest into Wednesday morning, with classic locations from the High Knob Massif to Burkes Garden having the potential to reach 0 degrees (F) or below. Coldest temperatures observed to date in these locations have been in the 0 to 5 above range, so Wednesday AM has a good opportunity to produce the coldest MINS so far this season in these places.

Short-Term Forecast

Overnight Into Monday Morning

Cloudy with flurries and light snow. Bitter. Gusty NW-N winds 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts on middle to upper elevation mountain ridges and exposed plateaus. Temps dropping into the 10s, with single digits across the upper elevations. Wind chills varying from single digits and 10s at mid-lower elevations to sub-zero at upper elevations, locally colder than -10 degrees (F) upon highest peaks. Riming on highest peaks Snow accumulations from a dusting up to 1″ .

Widespread light snow and flurries will occur with upsloping NW-N low-level flow into the western front range of the Appalachians, along and NW-N of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide (Cumberland Front) in southwestern Virginia and the Allegheny Front in West Virginia. Accumulations of a dusting to 1″ will be widespread, with higher amounts along the eastern-northern West Virginia highlands and locally at highest elevations of the High Knob Massif.

Monday Afternoon

Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of flurries and light snow showers. Cold. Northerly winds 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures varying from low-mid 10s to the mid-upper 20s (coldest at highest elevations). Wind chills in single digits and 10s, except sub-zero at highest elevations.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

Mostly cloudy. Flurries, light snow and snow showers. Winds N-NE at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts. Continued cold with temps in the single digits and 10s (coldest in upper elevations). Wind chills varying from sub-zero upper elevations to the single digits & low 10s. Accumulations of a dusting to 1″ .

Despite anticyclonic flow, a plume of Great Lake moisture will produce widespread light snow and flurries along the upslope side of the mountains with respect to N-NE flow. Due to cold temperatures, slick road conditions will be a factor. Much drier low-level air is then expected to advect into the area during Tuesday on anticyclonic flow.

Tuesday Afternoon

Becoming sunny. Seasonally cold. N-NE winds 5-10 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from the lower 20s to the lower 30s (coldest highest elevations). Wind chills in the 10s and 20s, except single digits in gusts on highest peaks.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning

Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread between bitter cold valleys and rising readings on upper elevation mountain ridges. Light N-NE winds, except 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts on mid-upper elevation ridges. Temperatures in the single digits and 10s, with extremes varying from near 0 degrees (F) or locally below in upper elevation valleys to readings rising through the 20s along upper elevation mountain ridges.

A 20 to 30+ degree vertical temperature difference is expected to develop into Wednesday morning between colder mountain valleys and higher mountain ridges where warm air advection will begin (initially enhancing low-level drying). Coldest temperatures will develop in upper elevation basins from the High Knob Massif to Burkes Garden where colder sites could drop to near or below 0 degrees (F).

*The potential for a couple of winter storm events is being monitored for next weekend (January 25-26), and toward the end of January-early February.