Developing light snow and lower elevation mix will generate less than ideal travel conditions later tonight into Thursday. Accumulations of snow are expected to remain light and mainly at elevations above 1500-2000 feet. Exercise caution when driving overnight into morning.

Update at 1:00 AM Thursday_The sticking snow level will drop to between 1500 and 2000 feet in locations along and north of the High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide.

Accumulations are expected to vary from a dusting to 1″, with locally higher amounts possible (mainly above 2500-3000 ft).

Low cloud bases, with riming, will occur at the highest elevations. Areas of fog will become possible at middle-lower elevations.

Former Caution Statement

Caution for snow covered roads and slick conditions at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif into Tuesday.

A 2019-20 winter season trend of snow being biased toward the highest elevations continued into the beginning of this new work week on Monday.

A general 1.0″ to 2.5″ of snow stuck at elevations above 3000 feet on the windward side of the High Knob Massif, from the crest of Powell Mountain across Big Cherry Lake Basin to the peak of High Knob. This included locations such as Thunderstruck Knob, Camp Rock Meadow, Little Mountain Knob, Bowman Mountain, Eagle Knob and the High Knob Lookout. Although snow tended to melt or to partially melt at elevations in the 3000-3500 foot zone, it remained all day, along with rime, at highest elevations.

Weather Headlines

*A weakening upper air wave will generate high elevation snow and lower elevation mix-rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Accumulations of generally a dusting to 1″ are expected, mainly at elevations above 2500-3000 feet.

Air only marginally cold enough for snow will continue to bias accumulations toward the highest elevations. In addition, shearing of upper air waves continue to weaken them which limits their strength.

*Moisture with a upper wave in the southern jet stream is being monitored for Friday night-Saturday. At this time the bulk of moisture is expected to pass southeast of the mountains with this southern wave. A clipper system to the north, in the polar jet stream, is also being watched.

Due to marginally cold air, accumulations will continue to be biased toward the highest elevations and at this time are generally expected to be light (some heavier snow at higher elevations can not yet be ruled completely out).

Although the February pattern is looking stormy, there is not yet a definitive focus on a major snowstorm. A survey of 70 ensemble members of the European-GFS model groups from the 1200 UTC model run of 29 January found only 20 to 30% showing significant snow accumulations between 29 January and 13 February.

*A milder period is expected through the beginning of February before a change to colder conditions becomes possible later in the first week or early second week of the new month. A wet pattern is likely to redevelop.

A general SW upper-level flow favors the continuation of a wet pattern in February, and at this time much more rain than snow through the first week of the month as mean temperatures will be well above average.

Reference Mid-Winter 2020_High Knob Massif for updated precipitation amounts from the City of Norton into the high country of the High Knob Massif.

Stay tuned for updates.