Weather Headlines

*Showers and local downpours, with possible thunder, is being monitored for Monday Night into Tuesday.

*Although heaviest rain amounts are currently expected to fall over the Deep South, the potential for downpours and at least localized thunderstorms should be closely monitored through Monday night into Tuesday.

Dense fog (orographic pilatus clouds) and air temperatures in the 30s (wind chills in 20s) will continue through Monday afternoon at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif. Caution is advised along Routes 619, 238, 237, 704, and others, at upper elevations.

*A transition from rain to upslope snow is being watched from Thursday Night into early Saturday as a developing coastal storm moves out into the Atlantic.

Former Caution Statement

Snow covered roads and hazardous travel conditions will continue into Sunday at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif. Caution is advised, especially for large drifts which are making some routes (e.g., 237) impassible to vehicles without chains and a high profile.

One of the heavier snowfall events of this rather timid snow season of 2019-20 produced 6″ to 8″ of fresh snow at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif into early morning hours of leap day (29 February 2020).

Waves of wind driven snow squalls dropped visibility to tens of feet at times from Friday afternoon through the overnight hours of Saturday.

Snowfall totals during the 26-29 February period reached 9.5″ in High Chaparral (3300 feet elevation) and around 12.0″ at the summit level of the massif where depths varied from near bare ground to feet in drifts.

This final events caps off a super-wet February with a general 13.00″ to 14.00″ of water equivalent precip at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif (not including, of course, added fog drip and rime drop from trees with 22 days in the clouds, and 14 days of rime formation, observed on Eagle Knob during the month).

February 2018 remains the wettest on record, with a general 14.00″ to 15.00″ of observed precipitation (this February had more snowfall, with 16″ to 22″ above 3000 feet).

Nearly 2000 vertical feet beneath the summit, Joe Carter measured 5″ of Saturday morning snow depth at the City of Norton Water Plant (10.47″ of February precipitation).

Looking Into Meteorological Spring

Although every month and season is different, the third consecutively WET February at least demands that the Northern Hemispheric pattern be reviewed.

The 2017-18 winter pattern (above) was followed by this spring pattern (below). In words, March & April turned colder and snowier than average in 2018.

The 2018-19 winter pattern (above) was followed by this spring pattern (below). March & April were collectively warmer than average in 2019 (below average snow).

Both May 2018 and May 2019 were much warmer than average (and also wetter than average).

While the pattern this winter is more like 2018-19 versus 2017-18 across the continental USA, especially the SE USA, global patterns were somewhat different.

The most striking difference is the very strong polar vortex this winter, with a couple of reflective events allowing wintry conditions to invade the region during late January and late February (following lag-time).

The polar vortex remains very strong and consolidated.

Final warming of the vortex associated with annual spring break-up will eventually occur, but until that actually happens persistence remains favored, with more of the same upcoming.

The development of showers and thunderstorms is therefore the next weather concern, with placement of main bands yet to be determined but certainly critical to the flood potential during this first week of March 2020.