An ALERT For Elevated Stream Levels Will Continue Into Thursday (26 March 2020)
A general 1.63″ to 2.05″ of rainfall pushed steep creeks draining the High Knob Massif to near and above flood stage. High water levels will continue into Thursday. Extreme caution is advised.
Big Stony Creek crested 0.6 feet (7″) above flood stage at 2:15 AM on 25 March, with roaring water levels continuing along this creek, South Fork of Powell, Little Stony Creek, Clear Creek, Stock Creek, Cove Creek and many others that drain the border area of Wise-Scott-Lee-Harlan counties.
Main-stem rivers will also continue to be elevated into Thursday, at near flood stage, with falling levels through the end of this week. Caution Is Advised.
**An ALERT for strong SSW-WSW winds may be needed for mid-upper elevations during Thursday night into early Friday with strong warm air advection.
Former Statements
A Heavy To Locally Excessive Rainfall Potential Is Being Monitored Through Wednesday Morning (March 25)
Weather Headlines
*Another wave of significant rainfall, with thunderstorms possible, will impact the mountain region from afternoon hours of Tuesday into early Wednesday.
*Residents living and driving in low-lying, flood prone locations will need to closely monitor conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your favorite media sources for possible watches or warnings.
*A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms has been shifted southward by SPC for Tuesday (24 March). This remains to be seen and could still be adjusted back northward. Regardless, embedded thunderstorms and another wave of significant rainfall remains likely.
**Tuesday presents concern for development of a squall line or scattered area containing strong-severe thunderstorms across southern Kentucky-Tennessee. An eastward movement needs to be monitored for the southern Appalachians into Tuesday night.
Precipitation Totals
1-23 (AM) March 2020
Black Mountain Summit
7.54″
*Big Cherry Lake Dam
7.41″
Eagle Knob Summit
7.32″
High Chaparral-Robinson Knob
7.08″
Clintwood 1 W
5.57″
*The 2008-2019 average for the entire month of March is 6.36″, such that month-to-date precipitation is currently running 2.69″ above this average.
Reference 2019-20 Precipitation Totals For More Values.
Looking Into April 2020
It is more of the same through this week, with intervals of rain-thunderstorms and up-down temperatures amid a general milder than average and, of course, wetter than average regime across the eastern USA.
A -NAO pattern (above) is now showing up in the ensemble mean modeling for the end of March and first week of April 2020. This will generate a notably cooler weather pattern.
Changes are finally showing up in a more consistent manner within the modeling as an ongoing stratospheric warming continues above the North Pole with transition from winter to spring across the Northern Hemisphere.
Temperatures at 30 MB above the North Pole (above) have been much colder than average during most of the 2019-20 Winter Season (gray line = climatological mean).
A pattern featuring a colder trend, of some duration yet to be determined, is becoming more likely by the end of March into April 2020 as a powerful polar vortex that has dominated the Northern Hemisphere winter season finally weakens (releasing lingering arctic air)#.
#Weakening has been slow given the anomalously strong polar vortex. The magnitude of the final warming and impacts to middle latitudes remains to be seen, but changes of some form are likely across North America.
The European Ensemble and GFS Ensemble means are in general agreement with a negative trend developing in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This -NAO will favor colder temperatures across the eastern USA.
The PNA has been persistently negative during the 2019-20 winter, but a notable trend toward neutral (European Ensemble mean) and positive (GFS Ensemble, above) is now being predicted heading into early April 2020.
These trends will favor a period, at least of some duration, of colder conditions relative to average.
More accumulating snow may also occur, at least for the mid-upper elevations, which would fit April climatology.