053020 Forecast

ALERT For The Potential Of Locally Strong-Severe Thunderstorm Development Today Into This Evening ( 4 June 2020)

Severe Risk Regions_8 AM Thursday to 8 AM Friday_4-5 June 2020

Weather Headlines

*Unseasonably cool air Sunday into early Monday is expected to generate a gorgeous conclusion to spring and start of Meteorological Summer.

NAM 12 KM Model_850 MB Temp Forecast_8 AM Sunday_31 May 2020

Reference Early Summer 2020_High Knob Massif for more details.

Beginning Of Meteorological Summer_High Knob Lake Basin

The coldest opening to a June on record in Wise was in 1966 with 31 degrees (that same morning featured 30 degrees in Burkes Garden).

The coldest opening to a June on record in Burkes Garden was in 1930 with 26 degrees, while the coldest on record in Canaan Valley (WV) reached 24 degrees in 1960.

Wise Temperatures For 1 June_1973-2019

While all-time record mins will remain safe, the coldest temperatures in several decades will be likely on early Monday this year, with coldest temperatures in the 30s amid high mountain valleys (widespread 40s to around 50 degrees within many other locations).

Burkes Garden Temperatures For 1 June_1973-2019

Light gradient winds, clear skies, and a unseasonably large 850 MB dewpoint depression will generate frost in cold air collecting basins at upper elevations from the High Knob Massif to Canaan Valley.

Northern Canaan Valley Frost Pocket

The northern frost pocket site in Canaan Valley, West Virginia will have a chance to drop into the 20s and approach the all-time record MIN for June 1 in Canaan Valley, and the all-time MIN for the month, which can be followed at this link.

NAM 12 KM Model_850 MB Wind Streamline Forecast_8 AM Monday_1 June

Humid-Unsettled Pattern Ahead

Developing upper air ridging across the USA will feature a separation in the ridge over the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, increasing the opportunity for unsettled conditions and possible tropical develop-ment over the Gulf by later in this period.

European Ensemble Mean_500 MB Height Anomaly_2-7 June 2020

A dramatic transition from unseasonably cool to unseasonably warm air will occur as this pattern develops, with hit-miss to widespread showers and downpours in thunderstorms becoming likely.

European Model_850 MB TEMP Anomaly Forecast_2-7 June 2020