Reference Early Spring 2021_High Knob Massif for an update on recent and Winter 2020-21 conditions.

ALERT For The Potential Of Heavy To Excessive Rainfall Saturday Into Sunday

Those living and driving along streams and in low-lying, flood prone locations need to remain alert for rapid water level rises through this weekend.

ALERT For Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Saturday Into Sunday

Conditions initially favorable for Elevated Convection on Saturday afternoon into the night will become more Surface-Based into Sunday.

A flash flood threat will also exist from the Appalachians west across Kentucky-Tennessee.

Rainfall totals during March 25-26 varied between upslope-downslope locations. With more heavy rain expected this weekend, locations near and downstream of upslope sites will be at somewhat higher risk for flash flooding given saturated conditions and already elevated stream levels.

Downslope Totals
Grundy: 0.50″
John Flannagan Lake: 0.53″
Nora 4 SSE: 0.68″
Birchleaf 1 SW: 0.70″
Clintwood 1 W: 0.70″

Upslope Totals
Little Mountain: 1.54″
Black Mountain: 1.59″
Big Cherry Dam: 1.72″
High Chaparral-Robinson Knob: 2.22″

Big Picture Perspective

While this weekend will mark the second wave in the current series to impact the mountain region, it may be the third wave next week that is most interesting from a mixed-mode perspective with spring and winter directly clashing as March gives way to April.

Although timing may vary, all major model groups currently show a late season blast of cold air that also generates accumulating snow over the mountains.

Again, again, and again models have shown this potential for the second half of March, to only take it away as time nears. Could this forecast finally verify?

It is too soon to know, but a late-season disturbance in the Polar Vortex that helps renew Greenland Blocking increases the odds that it may actually happen.

Stay tuned for later updates.