Bitter cold with partly to mostly clear skies. W to WNW winds decreasing to around 10 mph or less along lower to middle elevation ridges & plateaus below 3000 feet. W to WNW winds 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20+, across upper elevation mountain ridges. Temperatures dropping into single digits to lower 10s. Wind chill factors of from 0 to 10 above along middle elevation ridges and plateaus to 0 to -10 below on upper elevation ridges.
This Afternoon
Partly to mostly sunny. Cold. W winds becoming SSW-SW at 5-10 mph below 2700 feet. W winds shifting WSW-SW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, above 2700 feet. Temperatures widespread in the 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills in the 10s and 20s ( coldest at highest elevations ).
Tonight Into Thursday Morning
Partly to mostly clear. Becoming windy across middle to upper elevation ridges & plateaus. SSW-WSW winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. WSW-W winds of 15-25 mph, with 30-40 mph gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures varying from 10s in colder mountain valleys with calm winds to readings steady or rising through the 20s to around 30 degrees on exposed middle-upper elevation ridges & plateaus. Wind chill factors in the 10s & 20s ( a few single digits in gusts at highest elevations ).
My Forecast Discussion ( January 12-13 )
Windy conditions greeted January 12 in advance of a fast moving cold front and band of snow.
*Based upon all other available stations, as I have noted many times in the past, Lonesome Pine Airport temperatures tend to run 1 to 2 degrees F too warm ( at least relative to all other area sites around this elevation ).
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise ( Temp Error of 1-2 degree F ) at 2684 feet
This is illustrated well by Nora 4 SSE, at essentially the same elevation, located ENE of LNP in extreme southern Dickenson.
Nora 4 SSE on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge at 2650 feet
A burst of snow, as expected, overspread the mountain area from northwest to southeast during early afternoon with a moderate to heavy, wind driven snowfall and a quick .5″ to 1.5″ of accumulation amid the area of projected highest impact ( reference My 011216 Forecast for details ).
*Especially across Dickenson County and much of Wise County.
University of Virginia’s College At Wise
Visibility quickly dropped after snow began as the lower atmosphere became saturated, with large flakes observed.
University of Virginia’s College At Wise
Looking ahead, a moderation of temperatures by day back to near seasonal January levels during Thursday-Friday will never feel like it across our middle-upper elevations where persistently gusty S-SW winds will continue to generate substantial chill factors.***
***An important and always highligted factor ( is wind chills ) in my forecast’s since they are critical to me and anyone out amid our mid-upper elevation mountain terrain ( as our many residents and outdoor enthusiasts of these places know so very well ).
European Ensembles 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast – 7 AM Thursday
This continues to be a progressive pattern, such that late week warming will quickly give way to yet another surge of bitter cold air by this weekend into early next week.
European Ensembles 500 MB Height Anomalies Forecast – 7 AM Sunday
More snow, to some extent, is likely and that is what will be tracked in upcoming days as this typically snowy mountain area ( of the High Knob Massif ) is currently running at a record low snowfall pace for the 2015-16 season.
