Mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds by morning. Becoming windy on mountain ridges-plateaus. Winds becoming SSW-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SW-WSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, along upper elevation mountain ridges. Temps in the 50s to lower 60s, except dropping into the 40s to low 50s in mountain valleys that remain sheltered from gusty winds.
Sunrise Through Mid-Day
Mostly cloudy. Gusty. Chance of a shower, local thunder possible. SW winds shifting W at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s ( dropping to around 50 degrees at High Knob Massif summit level ).
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny. Gusty. Winds W-WNW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from the low-mid 50s across upper elevations to the low-mid 60s, warmer south toward the Tri-Cities.
Tonight Into Thursday Morning
Mostly clear. Cooler. W-WNW winds decreasing to mostly less than 10 mph below 2700 feet. WNW winds 10-15 mph, with some higher gusts, on upper elevation ridges. Temps varying from the 30s in colder valleys to the lower-mid 40s. Wind chills in the 30s along upper elevation ridges.
A chance for accumulating snow continues to be monitored for the Palm Sunday Weekend ( centered on March 20-21 ). Stay tuned for updates on this system.
Weather Discussion ( March 15-16 )
Tuesday was a simply delightful day in the mountains, with large day to night temperature spreads now being observed amid mountains valleys ( from a MAX of 76 degrees temps have fallen to 45 degrees, as of 2:00 AM, here in Clintwood ).
Yellow Trout Lilies & Fruiting Moss In Late PM Light – March 15, 2016
Following showers & thunderstorms, which produced 0.54″ of rain during the past couple of days in Clintwood, the drying of air aloft was evident this afternoon with nice blue skies amid the Beeches.
American Beech ( Fagus grandifolia ) of Cumberland Mountains – March 15, 2016
Climb upward out of the deep mountain hollows and it is a mild and gusty night ( windy ) along mid-upper elevation mountain ridges & plateaus.
Black Mountain MesoNET Up To 1:15 AM – March 16, 2016
This is a rare March night when 20-30+ mph winds across high ridges are not accompanied by any substantial wind chill factors.
NAM 4 KM Model TEMP Forecast At 1:00 AM Wednesday – March 16, 2016
Even our highest resolution models can not pick up on the large vertical temperature differences occurring across our complex terrain, with large temp differences over short distances and within the lower 1000-2000 vertical feet of the atmosphere tonight ( as of 1:00 to 2:00 AM ).
HRRR Model 1:00 AM Initialization Temperatures
Following another fast moving morning cold front, with a chance for hit-miss showers and perhaps local thunder in a thin line along-ahead of the boundary, yet another very nice afternoon is expected today.
Mountain valleys are likely to turn frosty into Thursday morning, especially amid the colder locations, as winds calm and another inversion develops amid lower dewpoint air tonight.
European Ensembles Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – 8 AM March 19, 2016
Focus then shifts to a cooling trend and the Palm Sunday weekend system, which is looking a little weaker & a little farther east on its track.
European Ensembles Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – 8 AM March 20, 2016
The Ensemble MEAN snowfall forecast was still in the 2-3″ range for the Wise gridpoint, with variations from 0″ up to more than 6″ on the 51-Member group Tuesday ( 12z run ).
European Ensembles Mean Sea Level Pressure Forecast – 8 AM March 21, 2016
As always, check back for updates on this late winter-early spring weather system.
