Rue-anemone ( Thalictrum thalictroides ) With Wild Geranium Leaf
A two species for one shot above features the first Rue-anemone of the season in bloom beside of a Wild Geranium leaf ( I have not yet found any Geraniums in bloom ). The Rue-anemone possesses tiny, mitten-like leaves ( the flowers being very small as well ).
Tonight Into Saturday Morning
A change in my previous forecast from last night is to increase cloudiness for locations along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide tonight, with upsloping northerly flow. Eventually, cloudiness will be giving way to clearing by the predawn to post-sunrise period on Saturday morning. This will act to reduce the significance of any frost that may form before sunrise.
Although Friday afternoon skies became partly cloudy, the tendency was for clouds to reform and bank up against the sprawling High Knob Massif and Tennessee Valley Divide as sunset approached ( with light northerly upslope winds ).
High Knob Massif Webcam – University Of Virginia’s College At Wise
Meanwhile, partly-mostly clear skies in places downslope of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide ( from river valleys of the Clinch & Powell into the Great Valley ) tonight will enhance the chance for valley frost in locations away from major rivers & lakes ( where fog will be more likely ).
Saturday Afternoon
A mix of sun and clouds is expected with warmer temps than observed Friday as winds shift SSE-SSW at 5-10 mph. Afternoon temperatures are expected to vary from 50s at upper elevations in the High Knob Massif, where more low clouds will develop with southerly upslope flow, to 60s in Norton-Wise and 70-75 degree readings at lower elevations in the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ( Pound-Grundy ).
Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
A significant vertical temperature spread is likely to develop beneath partly cloudy skies ( mostly high clouds ) as SSW-WSW winds begin increasing along upper elevation ridges ( 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts ). Winds will remain calm in deep valleys and just breezy enough to keep the air mixed along exposed middle elevation ridges and plateaus. Temperatures should vary from 30s to low 40s in the cooler valleys to 48-55 degrees along exposed mountain ridges.
*Updated at 3:00 AM Monday
Sunday Afternoon Into Monday Morning
A chance for strong-severe thunderstorms will exist west of the Appalachians during Sunday afternoon. This will need monitoring for those traveling to the west, as well as locally via a possible line of thunderstorms approaching the mountains by late Sunday.
Storm Prediction Center Preliminary Outlook For Sunday
Clouds will be on the increase with a chance for afternoon showers giving way to a likely period of rain, with possible thunderstorms, during Sunday night into Monday morning.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Forecast Up to 8 AM Monday – March 28GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast Up to 8 AM Monday – March 28, 2016
Gusty SSE-SW winds are expected late Sunday PM-Sunday night, especially at the higher elevations. Sunday PM temps will again vary widely from the 50s at highest elevations in the High Knob Massif to the upper 60s to lower 70s.
JKL Doppler at 3:12 AM Monday – March 28, 2016
A line of rain, with brief downpours, and local thunder will be moving across the Virginia-Kentucky border during the 3:00 to 4:30 AM period.
Temps will cool down significantly into Monday morning behind this front and dip to around freezing at the summit level of the High Knob Massif, with 40s across middle-lower elevations along and north of the High Knob Massif and the Tennessee Valley Divide ( the coolest conditions developing after sunrise into mid-morning on cold air transport ).
A cloudy, cold Monday follows with WNW-NW winds of 5-15 mph and temperatures that hold in 30s ( upper elevations ) and 40s ( middle elevations ) for much of the area along and north-northwest of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide. Milder 50s are expected to the south-southeast.
Cloud bases will be low and upper elevations, above 3300-3500 ft, are likely to be obscured in dense fog during much of the day on WNW-NW upslope flow.
*Some flurries or light snow showers will even be possible at the upper elevations during Monday Night into Tuesday morning.
Brief Look Ahead To Early April
While the remainder of March is expected to average near to somewhat above “normal” ( amid up-down temps ), very strong signals now exist ( as I have noted for a long time ) for unseasonably cold air to move into the central-eastern USA during the first week of April.
European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies – DAYS 1-5European 51-Member Ensemble MEAN 850 MB Temp Anomalies – DAYS 6-10
This would be winter-like coldness and could also feature a chance for snow. Stay tuned for more details.
