ALERT For Strong SSE to SSW Winds Overnight Into Thursday – Especially At Middle To Upper Elevations
A strong pressure gradient will drive strong winds across the mountains through today. Waves of showers, with lightning-thunder will impact the area into Friday. The strongest wave is currently looking to arrive by late Thursday night into the early overnight hours of Friday, with possible strong to locally severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall ( especially along-west of the Cumberland Mountains & Cumberland Plateau ).
Overnight Into This Morning
Increasing clouds. Windy across mid-upper elevations. SSE-S winds 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, on middle elevation mountain ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds S-SW 20-30 mph, with 40+ mph gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temperatures in the 40s to lower-middle 50s ( coolest in valleys with light winds and along highest mountain ridges ).
This Afternoon
A chance for showers, with possible thunder and brief downpours. Windy. SSW winds 15-25 mph, with higher gusts, below 2700 feet. SSW-SW winds 20-30 mph, with higher gusts, on mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temps varying from 50s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif to 60s in Norton-Wise ( around 70 degrees amid downslope sites of the Russell Fork-Levisa Fork basins ).
Tonight Into Friday Morning
Showers & thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms could be strong to locally severe. Local downpours. Windy. SSW to SW winds 10-25 mph, with higher gusts. Temps widespread in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Showers, with possible thunder, will remain likely Friday ahead and along a strong cold front. Much colder air will pour into the mountains overnight Friday into Saturday morning with temps dropping into the 30s to lower 40s on WNW-NW winds along and north of the High Knob Massif-Tennessee Valley Divide.
Weather Discussion ( March 30-31 )
A frosty cold morning greeted mountain valleys on Thursday with widespread MINS in the 20s to low 30s.
The official MIN reached 28 degrees in Clintwood, with low-mid 20s in some of the mid-upper elevation mountain valleys in the High Knob Massif area. Huge 45-50 degrees temperature rises followed into the afternoon as increasingly strong, gusty SSE-S winds mixed downward across the entire area ( the PM MAX reached 74 degrees in Clintwood for a 46 degree rise ).
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Site In MIddle Elevations ( Elevation 2650 feet )
Thursday PM maximums reached the 60s in Norton-Wise and the ridge communities across central Wise and southern Dickenson counties ( with 50s to lower 60s in upper elevations of the High Knob Massif and Black Mountain ). This was in contrast to the lower-middle 70s within downslope communities from Pound-Clintwood to Haysi and Grundy.
Halberd-leaved Yellow Violet ( Viola hastata ) In Bloom – March 30, 2016
Floral species continue to run some 1-3 weeks ahead of schedule, and in line with some of the warmer springs of past years.
First Mayapple ( Podophyllum peltatum ) Coming Up – Lower Elevations
The weather focus tonight is on strong winds across mid-upper elevation mountain ridges and plateaus, with wind speeds increasing through the evening into the overnight.
Black Mountain MesoNET Up To 12:15 AM Thursday – March 31, 2016
Wind gusts of 30-40+ mph have been common above 2700 feet.
Flatwoods Mountain MesoNET Up To 12:15 AM Thursday – March 31, 2016
Sustained wind speeds of 15-30 mph are common at mid-upper elevations, to contrast with some valleys having light winds.
Lonesome Pine Airport In Wise Up To 1:15 AM Thursday – March 31, 2016
Forecast models continue to be varied with respect to rainfall amounts today into Friday, with the NAM group remaining more aggressive and heavier with totals verses the GFS and European models.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Precipitation Up To 8 AM Saturday – April 2, 2016
The high resolution NAM 4 KM Model ( below ) remains strongest with heavy rains from the Cumberland Mountains W-SW across eastern Kentucky and much of Tennessee.
NAM 4 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Up To 8 AM Saturday – April 2, 2016
The GFS Model ( below ) remains light, by comparison.
GFS Model Total Precipitation Forecast Up To 8 AM Sunday – April 3, 2016
The midnight run of the HRRR Model has a weakening line of showers, with possible thunder, into the area by early to mid-afternoon today.
HRRR Model Future Doppler Forecast At 3:00 PM This Afternoon
Redevelopment to the west, with severe thunderstorms, is expected during mid-late afternoon with that activity then moving E-NE into the mountains by the early overnight of Friday ( timing, of course, being subject to change a little ).
Storm Prediction Center Risk Regions To 8 AM Friday – April 1, 2016
The latest update, just released, by the SPC has the entire area within a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.
SPC Probability Of A Tornado Within 25 Miles Of A Given PointSPC Probability Of Wind Damage Within 25 Miles Of A Given PointSPC Probability Of Large Hail Within 25 Miles Of A Given PointSPC Storm Discussion For Today-Tonight
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for any possible watches and/or warnings that may be needed by tonight into early hours of Friday.
