ALERT For Continued Anomalously Dry Conditions Into Thursday – Please DO NOT BURN Anything Until Beneficial Rain Falls
Overnight Into Tuesday Morning
Mostly clear. Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys & mild mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus. Light winds, except N-NW at 5-10 mph, with some higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temps from 30s to lower 40s colder valleys to the 50s to near 60 degrees on exposed mid-upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.
Tuesday Afternoon
High cloudiness. Unseasonably warm. NW-N winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures varying from 60s to around 70 degrees in upper elevations to the upper 70s to middle 80s ( warmest in lower elevations ).
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning
High clouds. Large vertical temperature spread between colder valleys & mild mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus. Winds becoming ESE-SSE at 5-15 mph along middle to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus. Temperatures varying from upper 30s to mid 40s in colder valleys to upper 50s to lower 60s on exposed mid-upper elevation ridges-plateaus.
Wednesday Afternoon
Partly to mostly cloudy ( mid-high clouds ). Unseasonably warm. SSE-S winds at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts. Temps varying from 60s in upper elevations to the mid 70s to low-mid 80s ( warmest in lower elevations of the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork basins ).
Wednesday Night Into Thursday Morning
Partly to mostly cloudy ( mid-high clouds ). Winds SSE-SSW at 5-15 mph, with higher gusts, along mid elevation ridges and plateaus below 2700 feet. Winds SSW-SW at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts, along mountain ridges above 2700 feet. Temps varying from the 40s in cooler mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60 degrees on exposed middle to upper elevation mountain ridges-plateaus.
Weather Discussion ( April 17-19 )
Unseasonably warm ( by day ) and dry weather pattern continues to dominate the mountain region, with HUGE temperature spreads between day-night being observed amid mountain valleys.
Official NWS Temperatures – Clintwood
( April 16 ) Saturday AM 33 degrees
Saturday PM 75 degrees
( April 17 ) Sunday AM 33.9 degrees
Sunday PM 80 degrees
( April 18 ) Monday AM 36 degrees
Monday PM 84.5 degrees
Widespread to patchy frost has been observed in these colder valleys during the past 3 nights, highlighted above, to contrast with much milder conditions 500-1000+ vertical feet higher.
A 48.5 degree temperature spread between Monday AM & PM is only one example of wild night-day temperature swings observed in mountain valleys during the past week.
I thank my friend Chris Allgyer, of the MECC Mathematics Department, for identifying this moth species that I captured on a cut log during Sunday. It was in a dark location, so I had to over-expose the photograph in order for it to stand out; otherwise, the picture could have been sharper with good light ( the brightness above being due to longer time exposure ).
It is enough to make even a moth’s eyes bug out. Folks living upon the middle-upper elevation ridges and plateaus, by contrast, have experienced lesser day to night temperature spreads with 60s-70s by day and 40s-50s by night.
Nora 4 SSE – NWS Site In Middle Elevations At 2650 feet
The Monday temperature spread on Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge, for example, at the official recording site of Wayne and Genevie Riner, varied from the upper 50s to the upper 70s ( only around 20 degrees instead of nearly 50 degrees ).
Large-flowered Trilliums ( Trillium grandiflorum ) – April 18, 2016
Only a few hundred vertical feet of elevation difference has been making a large difference in temperature, with well developed cold air drainage flows into hollows-valleys during recent nights with very efficient cooling in low dewpoint ( very dry ) air.
NAM 12 KM Model Total Rainfall Forecast Next 84-Hours
With such dry air it is going to be tough generating any significant rainfall to help with these dry conditions and forest fires burning across the region.
The latest European Model tonight is forecasting less than 0.50″ of rain to fall through this weekend. It is showing potential for some heavy rainfall during the 5-10 day forecast period, amid the final week of April as a frontal boundary wobbles about the region to the south of a strong baroclinic zone ( temperature gradient ).
Currently the best signs for soaking rain, with showers and downpours in thunderstorms, is looking to develop out in the extended forecast period ( the 5-10 day range ) during final days of April 2016.
Meanwhile, some rain will be possible during late week but it may again be in a “weakening” mode as it fights this very dry air mass set up over the region ( a deep vertical column driven by a subsidence regime adjacent to excessive rainfall over the lower Mississippi Valley ).
*More rain fell in just 24-hours in parts of the Houston, Tx., area than has been observed across most of this region all year. In fact, it was nearly double what has been measured in the Tri-Cities so far this year ( 9.81″ during January 1-April 19 verses more than 17.00″ in 24-hours amid wetter parts of the Houston Metro ).
Past climatology clearly shows a strong correlation to dryness in this region when excessive wetness sets up over the Mississippi Valley and southern-central Plains ( and vice-versa as wetness over this region is often correlated with dryness and drought across the former region ). This is no accident, and is part of a great atmospheric compensation regime of rising-sinking air.
